The Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins meet in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup playoffs for the first time since 2019, and even though it’s been a hot minute, any and every meeting between the two Original Six rivals is a crash course on and off the ice.
Boston swept the season series 4-0 and have topped Toronto in each of their past three postseason series. The Bruins are also the betting favorite in the NHL odds to advance to Round 2 this time around. Can the Maple Leafs finally flip the script and beat the Bruins, or will Boston send Toronto home in Round 1 again this spring?
Here are our NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Bruins in Round 1, which gets underway on Saturday, April 20.
All odds courtesy of BET99.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins series odds
| Market | ||
|---|---|---|
 Maple Leafs (+105) |
To win |  Bruins (-130) |
| Maple Leafs +1.5 (-210) |
Handicap | Bruins -1.5 (+155) |
| Over 5.5 (-200) | Total games | Under 5.5 (+150) |
The odds aren’t calling for a quick series, with the Maple Leafs +1.5 and the Over 5.5 games both carrying considerable chalk. As a result, we’re also seeing the lowest vig on a series favorite across the four Eastern Conference matchups.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins series preview
Maple Leafs statistical breakdown
| Regular Season | Since All-Star break | Since Trade Deadline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF% | 50.7 (15th) | 51.6 (10th) | 52.2 (12th) |
| Adjusted CF% | 51.5 (11th) | 52.2 (8th) | 53.1 (9th) |
| GF% | 54.5 (7th) | 57.5 (5th) | 60.0 (3rd) |
| xGF% | 51.4 (12th) | 53.5 (8th) | 53.9 (6th) |
| Adjusted xGF% | 51.8 (11th) | 53.7 (7th) | 54.6 (6th) |
| Team SH% | 9.7 (3rd) | 11.2 (1st) | 12.8 (1st) |
| Team SV% | .909 (23rd) | .904 (24th) | .906 (24th) |
| PDO | 100.7 (9th) | 101.5 (8th) | 103.4 (3rd) |
| PP% | 24.0 (7th) | 23.0 (16th) | 13.3 (27th) |
| PK% | 76.9 (23rd) | 76.2 (25th) | 75.4 (27th) |
The Toronto Maple Leafs have heated up at five-on-five, and while they aren’t going to maintain their late-season team shooting percentage, there is also potential for better goaltending and improvements while shorthanded.
The struggling top power-play unit also can be partially explained by Mitch Marner’s late-season absence and the overfocus on forcing the puck to Auston Matthews to pad his goals total.
Still, the improvement in possession, goal share, and expected goals percentage are encouraging because Toronto has shown off the scoring depth to prevent a shooting-efficiency freefall.
Bruins statistical breakdown
| Regular Season | Since All-Star break | Since Trade Deadline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF% | 47.0 (24th) | 45.7 (28th) | 45.9 (29th) |
| Adjusted CF% | 48.2 (22nd) | 46.1 (27th) | 46.3 (25th) |
| GF% | 56.3 (5th) | 52.0 (14th) | 53.1 (16th) |
| xGF% | 50.1 (18th) | 50.0 (17th) | 50.1 (17th) |
| Adjusted xGF% | 50.9 (15th) | 50.3 (16th) | 50.5 (16th) |
| Team SH% | 9.7 (4th) | 9.3 (7th) | 9.9 (8th) |
| Team SV% | .930 (3rd) | .922 (10th) | .918 (12th) |
| PDO | 102.7 (2nd) | 101.4 (9th) | 101.7 (10th) |
| PP% | 22.2 (13th) | 16.1 (29th) | 15.6 (26th) |
| PK% | 82.5 (7th) | 81.8 (6th) | 86.1 (4th) |
The Boston Bruins are an easy handicap. Elite goaltending and a high five-on-five shooting percentage are the perfect tandem to pad the wins column. Add a stout penalty kill, and it isn’t surprising that the Bruins have earned home-ice advantage in Round 1 and took a legitimate run at the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.
There are still glaring red flags, though. Boston doesn’t and hasn’t driven possession all season, and the Bruins have seen their team save percentage and power-play percentage dip as the year has progressed.
There’s no way to sugarcoat middling marks in the goals and expected goals for percentages, either. Boston will have difficulty winning this series or others without winning the goaltending battle by a mile unless the Bruins suddenly revert to the possession-driving force of years past.
All statistics are at five-on-five except power-play percentage and penalty-kill percentage.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins series props
Maple Leafs vs Bruins correct score odds
| Team | To win 4-0 | To win 4-1 | To win 4-2 | To win 4-3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Leafs |
+1,100 | +750 | +450 | +600 |
| Bruins |
+900 | +500 | +500 | +425 |
Pick: Maple Leafs to win 4-2 (+450 at BET99)
There’s an easy explanation for why the Bruins don’t drive possession and have relied on an unsustainable team shooting percentage and save percentage. It’s because their lineup isn’t as strong as most of the other 15 postseason teams, and bench boss Jim Montgomery can only coach his team up so much before the inferior roster is exposed.
The obvious elephant in the room is Toronto struggling defensively and in net off and on all season especially down the stretch. Still, before losing four straight to finish the year, the Maple Leafs rolled off a 20-7-1 stretch with the most goals per game and the 10th fewest against. Toronto just needs to play to its potential and not let Boston be better than the sum of its parts.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins total games odds
Pick: Over 5.5 games (-200 at BET99)
Both the Maple Leafs and Bruins have statistical and personnel shortcomings, and I’m not anticipating either team pulling away and winning four of five games to put this Under in jeopardy.
While the -200 vig might not be too appealing at first glance, just remember it’s still a payout of 50 cents on the dollar.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins series best bet
Pick: Maple Leafs to win series (+105 at BET99)
The season-series results and Boston’s past postseason success against Toronto are too steeply-priced into the odds for this series. Toronto has a far higher ceiling because of the offensive talent jumping the boards and the potential to tighten up defensively.
Additionally, it’s difficult to quantify, but Toronto head coach Sheldon Keefe has been mixing and matching his lines and defense pairings with players moving in and out of the lineup for a few weeks. I value the flexibility it gives Keefe to make in-game and game-to-game adjustments throughout this series, and Toronto dropping four straight and allowing 22 goals to finish the regular season also correlates with the lineup trial runs.
NHL Playoff Odds FAQs
The Carolina Hurricanes are favored to win the NHL Playoffs.
The Washington Capitals are the biggest long shot to win the Stanley Cup.
The Stanley Cup Playoffs feature 16 teams (eight from each conference), with the top three teams in each division automatically qualifying.
