Penguins vs Flyers Picks: Philly Won't Repeat Jarring Win

May 4, 2021 |
Penguins vs Flyers Picks: Philly Won't Repeat Jarring Win
The Flyers took the Pens by surprise 7-2 last night, but with Tristan Jarry back in nets, don't expect the rematch to go so smoothly for the underdogs.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
The Flyers took the Pens by surprise 7-2 last night, but with Tristan Jarry back in nets, don't expect the rematch to go so smoothly for the underdogs.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The NHL betting board for Tuesday has five games on the slate including an East Division battle between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers.

Despite already being eliminated from the postseason, the Flyers showed plenty of fight last night as they dismantled the Pens by a score of 7-2.

But oddsmakers are expecting a different result this time around, installing the playoff-bound Penguins as -169 favorites with the Over/Under at 6.5.

Here are our best free Penguins vs. Flyers picks and predictions for Tuesday, May 4, with the puck dropping at 7 p.m. ET.

Penguins vs Flyers odds

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NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

Pittsburgh opened as a -157 favorite at TwinSpires and is out to -177 as of 3 p.m. ET. The Penguins are taking 79 percent of bets and 86 percent of cash on the moneyline. The total is stable at 6.5, shaded slightly to the Under, which is drawing 56 percent of tickets and 58 percent of money.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Penguins at Flyers betting preview

Injuries

Penguins: Evan Rodrigues LW (Questionable), Mike Matheson D (Questionable), Brandon Tanev LW (Out).
Flyers: Carter Hart G (Out), Morgan Frost C (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Flyers are 3-13 in their last 16 games following a win. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Flyers.

Moneyline pick

The Penguins are in second place in the East Division but even with star center Evgeni Malkin returning from a six-week absence last night, they were hammered by their in-state rivals by a final score of 7-2.

That said, Pens backup goalie Casey DeSmith started that contest and allowed four goals on 37 shots before coming out with an injury. DeSmith has been a problem between the pipes all season and Pittsburgh will be in far better hands tonight with No. 1 netminder Tristan Jarry, who has a 2.42 GAA with a save percentage of .921 in 24 games since the start of March.

The Flyers have actually won five of seven meetings between these in-state rivals this year but still lag significantly behind the Penguins when it comes to both goals scored and goals allowed. The Pens have a goal differential of plus-31 on the season, while the Flyers are at minus-37. 

For much of this tightly-scheduled NHL season, there has been a distinct betting advantage to backing favorites coming off a loss in a back-to-back situation against the same team.

As of April 11, when NHL favorites lose the first outing of a two-game series, they bounce back with a commanding 29-12 record in the second contest for a profit of +9.2 units ($920 if you bet $100 per game) on the NHL moneyline.

With the Flyers just 3-13 in their last 16 games following a win, and the Pens 4-0 in their last four games following a loss of three or more goals, take Pittsburgh to rebound with a victory.

PREDICTION: ML Pittsburgh (-169)

Over/Under pick

We mentioned that Jarry has looked very sharp recently, but he generally plays much better at home than on the road. In 17 away contests this season, he has a 3.27 GAA with a save percentage of .883.  

The Flyers had excellent play between the pipes last season but have taken several steps back in that department this year. On Tuesday, Philly will likely start Brian Elliott, who has been brutal since the beginning of March, going 8-6-2 with a 3.43 GAA and a save percentage of .879.

The Penguins are fourth in the league in scoring with 3.34 goals per game. Pittsburgh's power play has also been red-hot lately which is bad news for a Flyers penalty kill unit that ranks second-worst in the league. 

With the Pens going 8-2 O/U in their last 10 games on the road, and the Over also going a sizzling 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these rivals, back it again. 

PREDICTION: Over 6.5 (+105)

Penguins vs Flyers betting card

  • ML Pittsburgh (-169)
  • Over 6.5 (+105)

Picks made on 5/4/2021 at 10:15 a.m. ET

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