The Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs square off at Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday night. It’s the first of four scheduled regular-season meetings between these Atlantic Division combatants.
Florida has notched back-to-back victories, including a road win in Buffalo Monday to kick off a three-game trip.
Toronto dropped a 4-3 decision in Boston on Saturday night, snapping a three-game winning streak. The Maple Leafs are an amazing 10-1-3 in the past 14 games at Scotiabank Arena.
Can the Panthers scratch their way back into the win column, or will the Leafs rake up two more points on home ice? We’ll discuss in our NHL betting picks for Panthers vs. Maple Leafs on Tuesday, January 17.
Panthers vs Maple Leafs best odds
Panthers vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
The Panthers haven’t been the team they were last season when they notched the President’s Trophy for having the most points in the NHL.
When the opportunity presented itself in the offseason, Florida traded Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar for Matthew Tkachuk. The Panthers have managed a minus-5 goal differential, and if the season ended today, Florida wouldn’t qualify for the playoffs.
The Maple Leafs are a distant second behind the red-hot Boston Bruins in the Atlantic Division, but are cruising along with a plus-3 goal differential, tied for third in GD in the Eastern Conference, and tied for fifth overall in the NHL.
The difference here should be in the goaltending. Sergei Bobrovsky (11-13-1, 3.27 GAA, .896 SV%, 1 SO) is projected to start. He has an inflated wallet, and an even more inflated GAA, which is not what the Panthers bargained for.
The Leafs turn to Matt Murray, who has certainly cooled off since his insane start, but is still more reliable than Bobrovsky. Murray has had somewhat of a resurgence with Toronto and has seen an improvement in both his GAA (2.56) and SV% (.917).
Murray's GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average) of 1.25 at even strength is also levels of Bobrovsky's -3.65. Whatever way you look at it, Toronto has the advantage in net.
The Leafs are moderate favorites here, and not a great value on the moneyline. Look to the puck line instead for a friendlier return.
My best bet: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+148 at BetRivers)
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Panthers vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
The Panthers have scored four goals in each of the past two outings, while lighting the lamp three or more times in six of the past eight games overall.
While that’s good news, the bad news is Florida’s defense and goaltending have been rather inconsistent lately, allowing three or more goals in four of the past five outings, and in 10 of the previous 13 games overall.
The Panthers are just 2-5 in the past seven games on the road, while going 3-10 in the past 13 games against teams with a winning overall record. Florida lost just 18 games for the entire regular season in 2021-22, but it has already racked up 20 losses so far just past the halfway point of the season.
In addition, Florida is playing the second end of a back-to-back, and the Panthers are 0-4 in the past four tries when playing on no rest.
Toronto is well rested, last taking the ice on Saturday. It is 49-24 in the past 73 when playing on two days of rest, and that equates to a .671 winning percentage during the stretch.
The Leafs are 10-3 in the past 13 games against losing teams, too, while hitting at a 46-17 clip in the past 63 skates on home ice. The Buds have dominated in this series, going 8-1 in the past nine against the Cats, too, while the home side is 16-5 in the previous 21 in this series.
Panthers vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
The Panthers are playing with no rest after rolling across the Peace Bridge and up the QEW from Buffalo last night. OK, they probably flew. Anyway, the Over is 4-1 in the past five for the Panthers when playing on no rest.
In addition, Florida is playing the third game in four days, and fourth game in six days. The Panthers have cashed the Over at a 21-8-2 clip in the past 31 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation, and 20-8-3 in the past 31 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation.
While the Under has trended lately for the Leafs inside the division, the Over is 5-1-1 in the past seven meetings between the Panthers and Maple Leafs, while going 4-0-1 in the past five skates in Hogtown.
Play the Maple Leafs on the puck line for the big bet, but don’t be afraid to toss in the Leafs and the Over for a nice parlay opportunity.
Panthers vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs are 8-1 in the past nine home games against the Panthers, and the home team has cashed in 16 of the past 21 games in this series. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs Maple Leafs.
Panthers vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 17, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Florida, Sportsnet Ontario |
Panthers vs Maple Leafs key injuries
