Panthers vs Maple Leafs Game 5 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Nylander Doesn't Stop Firing

The Toronto Maple Leafs return home after extending their semifinal series with the Florida Panthers following a 3-2 Game 4 win on Wednesday. The Buds sit as -170 favorites with a total of 6.5, and a win tonight could swing momentum and put the pressure back on the Panthers.

With William Nylander engaged in this offense, finding his shots on home ice, and the Leafs generating more scoring chances at home in the series, will it be 88 leading the Blue and White tonight at Scotiabank Arena? 

Find out where my best bet lies in my NHL picks and predictions for Panthers vs. Maple Leafs on Friday, May 12.

Panthers vs Maple Leafs Game 5 odds

Panthers vs Maple Leafs series odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 12.

Panthers vs Maple Leafs Game 5 predictions

Willian Nylander continues to lead the Maple Leafs in shots on goal/60 at a healthy 13.64/60, which is the second-best rate of any player still in the postseason. He hasn’t been playing big minutes in the series (18:24 TOI per game) but he’s 3-1 to the Over on this prop and 4-1 O/U on home ice in the playoffs. 

The Leafs are generating more shots on net at Scotiabank Arena in this series, as they managed just 49 shots over Games 3 and 4 combined on the road but produced 49% more shots on net at home in Games 1 and 2.

Sheldon Keefe and the offense have taken advantage of the last change, which is a big deal for Nylander, who has been starting the majority of his shifts in the offensive zone with a center in John Tavares, who is winning over 60% of his draws in the postseason. 

Even without getting PP1 time, Nylander is still the shooter on the second unit and collected two more shots with the man advantage in Game 4, finishing with four total shots on seven attempts. 

The Toronto forward has been the best player for the Leafs in the series, is engaged, and has been getting more pucks on net than the majority of all postseason skaters.

At his current rates and projecting just 19 minutes of ice time, I have this at 4.23 shots on goal with the chance to play up to 21 minutes a decent probability. I’m playing this to -135. Pinnacle is already at -141. 

My best bet: William Nylander Over 3.5 shots on goal (-132 at SIA)

Panthers vs Maple Leafs Game 5 moneyline analysis

The Leafs lost both of their home games to open the series, but underlying metrics showed that was highly improbable. 

In Game 1’s 4-2 loss, Toronto won the Corsi battle, had more scoring chances, and finished with 4.46 expected goals to Florida’s 2.47 xG, per Natural Stat Trick. The Buds won the expected goal battle in Game 2 as well, but still found themselves without a win heading to the Sunshine State for Game 3.

If the Leafs can bring that same game tonight and continue to get solid goaltending with Joseph Woll, they could be better than the 63% implied chance of winning the -170 moneyline odds are implying. 

Another edge the Leafs are carrying into Game 5 is the more subjective analysis of self-sacrifice. In the series, the Panthers are winning the Corsi battle but losing the Fenwick battle, and that’s because the Leafs are stepping in front of the puck. 

In Game 4, there were only four Toronto skaters who didn’t record a blocked shot as the motivation of playing with a rookie goalie in net coupled with facing elimination has turned the Leafs into a great shot-blocking team.

The Leafs closed at -196 in Game 1 after opening at -162 and took steady money up until puck drop, followed by opening at -200 in Game 2 and closing at -215. That would put tonight’s -172 moneyline a little long compared to Game 1, but the main difference is that the Leafs have not seen much action on the moneyline and have actually gotten longer at some books.

Even in their win on Wednesday, it played out like a coin-toss. I’m not looking to pay -170 tonight on the Leafs in what has been a very tight series despite Toronto posting very solid underlying metrics at home in Games 1 and 2. The Leafs are as long as they've been at home in this series yet the market isn’t moving to their side.  

Panthers vs Maple Leafs Game 5 Over/Under analysis

The Under has gone a perfect 4-0 through the series’ first four games and the total continues to trend to the Under. 

There have been some 7s throughout the series, but the longer the series goes on, the fewer penalties are called, and teams are willing to put more on the line in terms of winning battles and blocking shots. It’s tough to see any value on this Over — and that’s coming from someone who has hit it in three of the four games. 

Early scoring hasn’t been prevalent in the series, which has been frustrating for Over bettors, as it sets the tone for the game. Only five first-period goals have been recorded with four of them coming in the two games in Toronto.

This is also a Toronto team that has scored exactly two goals in six straight games and has the lowest shooting percentage at 5-on-5 and all strengths of the second round. It’s bound to regress, but right now, Toronto is struggling to score as easily as it did in the regular season and even vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy in the first round. 

Goaltending has also helped the Under cash as the netminders have totaled plus-6.23 goals saved above expected, per Natural Stat Trick. Woll was incredible in the AHL this year (.927 sv%) and that game has translated to the big leagues, while Sergei Bobrovsky has the third-best goals saved above expected/60 of all playoff goalies.

At the time of writing, the best price for the Under 6.5 is at +105 (widely available) as this total has dropped nearly 25 points towards the Under since Game 1. Like the Dallas/Seattle series that can’t hit the Under, this series seems destined to be tight and low scoring despite the higher total. I’m leaning on the Under 6.5 and would pull the trigger if +110 is available which might be possible with some late Over money possibly coming in closer to puck drop. 

Panthers vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know

The Under is 6-0 in the Maple Leafs’ last six games overall. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs. Maple Leafs.

Panthers vs Maple Leafs Game 5 game info

Panthers vs Maple Leafs Game 5 injuries

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