The battle of Ontario will see another chapter tonight as the Ottawa Senators play host to the Toronto Maple Leafs.
These two clubs met back in mid-March, with the Leafs taking a 5-4 shootout win on the road as a -130 favorite. However, with the Leafs still prioritizing health over results and giving up plenty of goals and chances of late, is there value in betting on offense tonight?
Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Senators on April 1.
Maple Leafs vs Senators best odds
Maple Leafs vs Senators picks and predictions
Shopping around and finding the best price is the easiest and possibly the most beneficial thing bettors can do.
Senators' captain Brady Tkachuk to score a goal tonight is priced between +105 and +149, which is an 8.6% difference in implied probability.
The total is moving toward 7.0, and the Sens will be leaning heavily on Tkachuk and their top-six against their Ontario rivals tonight. Tkachuk dominated the Leafs in the last meeting, finishing with two goals and eight shots on net.
The Buds also aren’t sporting a tough lineup today, with Noal Acciari listed out and Wayne Simmonds' status set as doubtful. They’ll also be rotating defensemen yet again and dressing seven blueliners.
The Leafs have also been a very generous team since the beginning of March and are currently among the worst seven teams in the league when it comes to both expected goals against/60 (xGA/60) and high-danger chances against/60 (HDCA/60) at 5-on-5. This team is certainly not in playoff form, and Tkachuk & Co. pose a difficult matchup tonight.
I love Tkachuk to make an impact on this game and getting his anytime goal at +149 at SIA is substantially the best price on the board.
My best bet: Brady Tkachuk anytime goal (+149 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs vs Senators moneyline analysis
The Sens dominated the last meeting in March but fell 5-4 in a shootout. Matt Murray made 48 saves in the game but MoneyPuck had Ottawa winning the game 73.5% of the time. The Senators finished with an absurd 5.96 expected goals despite the Leafs entering the contest as -130 chalk.
Toronto has seen a 5-point move to -150 from -145 for tonight, but if that seems like a long price with just a 20-point adjustment for not playing on the back-to-back, you’re likely right. Back-to-backs are worth 25 points on the low end and it’s likely why we're seeing some action on the Leafs — based strictly on price.
However, I don’t want much to do with the Leafs, as they are just 7-7 straight up since March. This is also a team looking to stay healthy, plus they already possess a four-point lead on Tampa Bay for home ice.
Ottawa will start Mads Sogard in goal, and the netminder has won back-to-back starts over Tampa and Florida with a .937 SV% during that span.
The Leafs continue to allow plenty of chances — 25th in xGA/60 — while also ranking in the bottom half of the league in expected goals for/60 (xGF/60) at 5-on-5 since March 1.
However, the home side is missing some key defensemen in Jakob Chychrun, Travis Hamonic, and Thomas Chabot. It's the biggest reason why I’d rather play back the Ottawa team total instead of the moneyline tonight.
Maple Leafs vs Senators Over/Under analysis
I love both teams to flirt with three goals tonight and expect this total to hit 7.0.
Looking at the metrics, both clubs have been particularly bad in the expected goal ranks at 5-on-5 since March 1. Toronto ranks 25th in xGA/60 while the Sens are a little worse at 26th.
A lot of that has to do with the amount of high-danger chances each team is giving up as the Leafs are allowing the eighth-most at even strength over the last 30 days, while the Sens give up the second-most behind only the Golden Knights.
I’m betting Over 6.5 goals at -130, and think both teams scoring in the first period at +125 (play to +120) also provides value.
Maple Leafs vs Senators betting trend to know
The Over is 7-1 in the Senators’ last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Senators.
Maple Leafs vs Senators game info
| Location: | Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, April 1, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet |
Maple Leafs vs Senators key injuries
