Maple Leafs vs Rangers Picks and Predictions: Toronto's Shaky Road Trip Goes Through MSG

The Toronto Maple Leafs play their fifth game of a six-game road trip when they pull into Madison Square Garden Wednesday night to take on the New York Rangers, who are 6-2 in their last eight.

Will the third meeting of the season produce another low-scoring affair? Can the Leafs play anything but erratic hockey while on this road trip? Find out in our free NHL betting picks, predictions, and odds for Maple Leafs vs. Rangers.

Maple Leafs vs Rangers odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Leafs continue to be a highly valued team by the books as they opened as -150 road favorites and have since moved to -160 with a total of 5.5 leaning to the Over. These two have met in Toronto twice already this year with Toronto closing as -180 favorites in the most recent meeting.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Maple Leafs vs Rangers predictions

• Prediction: Rangers ML (+140)
• Prediction: Under 5.5 (-105)
• Best bet: Auston Matthews Over 4.5 shots (+100)

Predictions made on 1/19/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Maple Leafs vs Rangers game info

• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
• Date: Wednesday, January 19, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT

Maple Leafs vs Rangers betting preview

Injuries

Maple Leafs: Jake Muzzin D (Out), Justin Holl D (Questionable), Nick Ritchie F (Questionable), Ondrej Kase (Questionable).
Rangers: Alexis Lafreniere F (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Maple Leafs vs Rangers head-to-head record (since 2018)

Maple Leafs: 4-5 SU, 27 goals for.
Rangers: 5-4 SU, 25 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-1 in the Maple Leafs’ last six games vs. the Metropolitan. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Rangers.

Maple Leafs vs Rangers picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline analysis

The Leafs have picked up five of a possible eight points so far on their current six-game road trip, but the on-ice quality has been anything but strong. The Leafs blew a three-goal lead in Colorado (lost in OT), blew a two-goal third-period lead to Vegas (won in OT), lost 2-1 to the Coyotes the following night, and then won 6-5 vs. the Blues in a game where they blew an early 3-1 lead. Betting on this team of late has taken years off our lives as this has looked more like the Leafs of seasons past than the defensively-minded unit we saw in November and December.

The Leafs are likely without their entire second defensive pairing of Justin Holl (COVID) and Jake Muzzin (concussion). While some Toronto fans may welcome these absences, the truth of the matter is this team is worse without them. The Leafs have strong defensive depth and can fill the cracks, but they will be extremely small in their second pairing of Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren, who are both 190 pounds or lighter. The third pairing of Travis Dermott and Alex Biega also leaves a lot to be desired.

#Leafs lines at practice Jan. 18/22

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kampf-Engvall
Clifford-Spezza-Simmonds

Rielly-Brodie
Sandin-Liljegren
Dermott-Biega

Campbell
Mrázek
Hutchinson
D’Agostini (practice goalie)

COVID: Kase, Ritchie, Holl
Absent: Muzzin

— David Alter (@dalter) January 18, 2022

Even with Muzzin and Holl in for the majority of the road trip, the Leafs played horribly in their own end and gave up 13 goals to the Avs, Knights, and Blues. We expected big things out of Jack Campbell in St. Louis and he finished with -2.84 goals saved above expected, which is up there as one of his worst games of the year. He’ll have to bounce back in a big way against a New York team that has played the Leafs well in a pair of meetings in Toronto.

The Leafs eked out a 2-1 win vs. the Rags back in mid-November but lost 2-1 in overtime in late October. Campbell and Igor Shesterkin started both of those games but it’s the Rangers goaltender who comes into tonight’s game in much better form.

It’s safe to say the Russian netminder has found his pre-injury form as Shesterkin has won his last four starts and has stopped 158 of the 163 shots over that stretch while recording a pair of shutouts. 

The Rangers are playing their game better than the Leafs are playing their own. New York has won six of eight and has held opponents to three or fewer goals in seven of them. Toronto is not a team that can be successful playing in 6-5 games nightly, and its lack of size on the blueline is a major disadvantage versus a New York team that is bigger and stronger than a season ago.

New York has already shown the ability to shut down this Toronto offense and if the Leafs keep giving up chances while forgetting to play a full 60 minutes, playing from behind against Shesterkin is a recipe for failure. 

Give us the home dogs at +140.

Prediction: Rangers ML (+140)

Over/Under analysis

We've been firing on Leafs Unders of late and have come up embarrassingly short. If Campbell can’t bail his team out as he did for the first three months of the season, the results will be what we saw in Colorado, Vegas, and St. Louis. We can’t blame the Leafs offense as it's scored 15 goals over the last four games, but Toronto leads the league in defensive zone turnovers and has struggled in its own end of late. Without Cambell in top form, it’s tough to ride the Under 5.5 here despite the great price of-105.

Conversely, Shesterkin's stellar play scares us with the Over. The Leafs offense is scoring 4.00 goals per game since Christmas and has a Top-5 power play over that stretch. However, Shesterkin has a .958 SV% versus Toronto in two starts this season and enters tonight’s matchup with a 0.67 GAA and a .981 SV% over his last three games, which includes a game versus offensive powerhouse Tampa Bay.

Neither of the previous two meetings saw a lot of power-play time as the clubs went a combined 1 for 9 with the man advantage. The Leafs have just one power-play goal over their last three games while the Rags have potted an extra-strength marker just once in their last five matches. Neither team’s power play is scorching hot and there is an argument to be made that the changes to the Leafs PP have slowed down one of the best units in hockey.

If this number were to hit 6, we’d likely hammer the Under at -115 or better, but with how it’s looking combined with the previous two games closing at 5.5, getting 6 likely isn’t going to happen. We don’t want to bet against this Leafs offense, but Shesterkin's play between the pipes and the Rangers’ success at slowing the Leafs down this season are impossible to dismiss. It’s a lean on the Under 5.5 but nothing more.

Prediction: Under 5.5 (-105)

Best bet

This might sound like a repeat episode, but we’re back on an Auston Matthews prop. However, instead of hitting his AGS (currently at +100), we’re hitting the Over on his total shots prop of 4.5.

Matthews has hit eight shots in two of his last four games and has 24 shots over four games on this road trip. The Rangers have been keeping the goals off the board but good offenses have launched a ton of pucks on net of late as Tampa, Edmonton, Vegas, Los Angeles, and San Jose all had at least 34 shots against the Rangers since the restart.

In his two games vs. New York, Matthews has 11 total shots and he leads the Buds in shots by eight since January 1. He also sits second on the team in ice time (over 22 minutes per game) over that stretch and should be leading the way offensively as he has scored in four straight and 13 of his last 16.

Pick: Auston Matthews Over 4.5 shots (+100)

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