Maple Leafs vs Flyers Picks and Predictions: Leafs Get Back to Winning Ways on Road

The Toronto Maple Leafs saw their five-game winning streak snapped with a 5-1 loss to the Kings at home on Monday. Now the Buds will hit the road for one game against the Philadelphia Flyers, who have taken seven of a possible 10 points at home this year.

Wednesday’s meeting will be the first since December 2019. The Leafs opened at -125 on the ML and moved to -130 quickly after. The total opened at 6, leaning to the Over.

Here are our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Flyers for Wednesday, November 10.

Maple Leafs vs Flyers odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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Maple Leafs vs Flyers picks

• Maple Leafs ML (-130)
• Under 6 (-101)

Picks made on 11/09/2021 at 3:20 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Maple Leafs vs Flyers game info

• Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Wednesday, November 10, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, NBCSP

Maple Leafs vs Flyers betting preview

Injuries

Maple Leafs: Ilya Mikheyev F (Out), Petr Mrazek G (Out).
Flyers: Ryan Ellis D (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Maple Leafs vs Flyers head-to-head record (2018-19)

Maple Leafs: 3-3 SU, 24 goals for.
Flyers: 3-3 SU, 23 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 6-1 in Maple Leafs’ last seven road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Flyers.

Maple Leafs vs Flyers picks and predictions

Maple Leafs ML (-130)

The Maple Leafs lost as -258 favorites on Monday in what can only be described as a perfect let-down spot after beating the Bruins two days earlier. The tough loss was bound to happen after the Leafs played nearly perfect hockey for five straight games. Toronto actually finished with more expected goals than the Kings on Monday, but goalie Jack Campbell couldn’t steal them another game as he’s done in the past.

Now the Leafs will hit the road (for just one game) for the first time since October 27 and face a Philadelphia team that is 6-4 SU on the year. The Flyers sit in the bottom five in xgoal percentage and bottom 10 in Corsi and Fenwick percentage at 5-on-5. Philly’s even-strength troubles could be a problem Wednesday, as the Leafs are one of the best 5-on-5 teams in hockey. they dominate possession nightly and have the most xgoals for/60 at 3.27. 

Also in the visitor's favor is the Leafs’ power play, which has scored in five straight games and is 6 for 12 over that stretch. Philly takes penalties at a Top-10 rate and could find itself having to fend off William Nylander, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and John Tavares, who have combined for 13 power-play points over the last four games.

Carter Hart will be tasked with stopping Toronto’s big four, as he has been confirmed as the Flyers’ starting goalie for Wednesday’s meeting. Hart sports respectable numbers with a 2.41 GAA and a .926 save percentage. However, he's allowed exactly three goals in four of his last five games and has just two wins over that stretch. Philadelphia gives up shots at a Top-10 rate and sits 31st in expected goals against/60 in all situations. Going shot-for-shot with the Leafs is not advised, but Sheldon Keefe’s group has been more than decent in their own end, as all but one of its six wins have come with the Leafs' opponents scoring two or fewer goals.

Toronto is not a great matchup for Philadelphia. The Leafs dominate possession while the Flyers are not a good even-strength possession team. Metrics support Toronto at 5-on-5, while the Leafs have the better power play and penalty kill. 

Getting the Leafs at -130, even on the road, is a rare occurrence. They were -258 home favorites versus the .500 Kings just two days ago.

Under 6 (-101)

This total has opened at 6 and is leaning to the Over. The Leafs have had a steady diet of 5.5 totals over their last four games and are 2-2 O/U in that stretch while the Flyers have ripped off five straight Unders. Both teams have been profitable to the Under to begin the year. Unders are hitting at 52 percent on the season.

Toronto goalie Jack Campbell is coming off a clunker of a game where he allowed four goals on 28 shots to the Kings. Keefe came out after that game and said the players in front of him need to play better. Those choice words might work in the Under’s favor as the Leafs will look to rebound after one of their worst defensive efforts in two weeks.

Both likely starting goalies sit in the Top 10 in goals saved above expected, as even Hart is also enjoying the best start to his young career. Campbell sports a 2.09 GAA with a .929 save percentage over 11 games this season.

Toronto and Philadelphia rely heavily on scoring from their top two lines, and as we saw on Monday with the Leafs, if either of those lines can’t bury, the score will reflect that. The Leafs held both the Bruins and Lightning to three combined goals recently and those two clubs are also top-line heavy when it comes to scoring production.

Toronto is 3-1 to the Under on the road this year and this is the best price we’ve seen on the Under 6 with the Leafs in over two weeks. Philly has found success with low-scoring games of late and Toronto will be looking to put in better effort defensively. 

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