Maple Leafs vs Flyers Picks and Predictions: Finding Value in Likely Lopsided Game

The Maple Leafs are heavily favored tonight against a depleted Flyers team that may be without iron man Keith Yandle. With the moneyline barely worth the trouble, let's see where we can find some betting value in this showdown between Toronto and Philly.

Last Updated: Apr 2, 2022 1:18 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

The Toronto Maple Leafs begin a four-game road trip tonight versus the Philadelphia Flyers but could be possibly looking ahead to Monday and Tuesday’s games against the Lightning and Panthers. Sheldon Keefe will have to keep his team focused after Thursday's emotional win and the Atlantic standings tightening up.

Can the Leafs get two points in front of Jack Campbell, who will be making his first start in nearly a month? Can the Flyers put in a decent effort despite the noise regarding Keith Yandle possibly sitting? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Flyers. 

(Editor’s Note: On April 4th, sports betting in Ontario shifts from a grey market to a regulated market. Get all the information you need ahead of this change with our Ontario sports betting guide.)

Maple Leafs vs Flyers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Leafs opened as low as -260 but have since moved to -300 on the moneyline across the board on Saturday morning. The total is sitting at 6.5 and beginning to steam to the Over. Toronto won 3-0 in Philadelphia earlier in the season as -124 road favorites but a lot has changed since then.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Maple Leafs vs Flyers predictions

Predictions made on 4/02/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Maple Leafs vs Flyers game info

Location: Wells Fargo CenterArena, Philadelphia, PA
Date: Saturday, April 2, 2022
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: Sportsnet, NBC Sports Philadelphia

Maple Leafs vs Flyers betting preview

Key injuries

Maple Leafs: Jack Campbell G (Probable), Jake Muzzin D (Out), Ilya Lyubushkin D (Questionable), Petr Mrazek G (Out), Rasmus Sandin D (Out), Ondrej Kase F (Out).
Flyers: Scott Laughton F (Questionable), Keith Yandle D (Questionable), Carter Hart G (Questionable).

Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Maple Leafs vs Flyers head-to-head record since 2017-18

Maple Leafs: 4-6 SU, 33 goals for.
Flyers: 6-5 SU, 34 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Flyers are 4-22 SU in their last 26 after scoring two goals or fewer in their previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Flyers.

Maple Leafs vs Flyers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Puck line analysis

Now that Auston Matthews has collected his 50th goal, the Leafs can get back to business and try to move up the hyper-competitive Atlantic Division standings. Saturday’s meeting with the struggling Flyers is the first of a critical four-game road trip for the Leafs, which will stop off in Tampa, Miami, and Dallas. 

It looks like a classic look-ahead spot for the Leafs who have constantly played down to their opponent of late with a 2-5 SU mark as -250 favorites or more, but there are a lot of moving pieces to this game.

First off, Jack Campbell will be making his first start in nearly a month and although his results pre-injury were awful (3.96 GAA over his last 12 starts), the No. 1 goalie is a huge piece of this team and should get the best out of his teammates who will want nothing more than to help restore some of Campbell’s lost confidence. 

Secondly, the Flyers have been awful down the stretch with a 5-10 SU record since March 1 and a 3.73 GAA to go along with it. Philadelphia got goalie Carter Hart back from a one-game absence due to injury, but with the team playing tomorrow at MSG, we aren’t sure if Hart or Martin Jones will start. Frankly, it doesn’t really matter as both tenders own a GAA above 3.00 since January 1 and are a combined 8-28 SU.

Another developing situation is the status of defenseman Keith Yandle. The Philly D-man has played in 989 consecutive games (an NHL record) but could possibly be scratched tonight with what is being described as an illness, but the tag could just be a courtesy for the veteran. The Flyers are in evaluation mode and sitting the veteran with an “injury” might not sit well with many of the boys in the locker room. 

Basically, under most circumstances, this would be a great spot to fade the Leafs as big road favorites, but the Flyers are dealing with a lot of issues themselves (injuries, Yandle, schedule, poor play, etc.) and are rolling with a very inexperienced roster, especially on the blue line if Yandle sits. The Flyers generated a ton of chances in their previous game but still lost 4-1 to the Wild, which was their third straight defeat. Trading away captain Claude Giroux has hurt this team in many areas. This is an offense that is scoring 2.50 goals per game since January 1, which ranks in the Bottom 4 in the league. 

If Toronto leans on this team, the Flyers could fall over. 

PredictionMaple Leafs -1.5 (-115 at bet365

Over/Under analysis

We’re usually all in on the Over for a Toronto game but this one could be a one-sided affair, which has us a little skeptical of hitting the Over 6.5 at -120. 

For starters, Jack Campbell’s return to the crease might seem like an auto-Over bet with the way he had been playing before his injury with a near-4.00 GAA across his previous 10 starts, but the time off was likely good for the American goalie. Campbell is also a big favorite in the dressing room so we’d expect a disciplined defensive game in front of the Toronto netminder tonight. Getting Campbell’s confidence back on track is this team’s No. 1 priority and the Leafs will not hang their goaltender out to dry tonight.

Making this even easier for the Maple Leafs is the Philadelphia offense. This was already one of the worst offenses in hockey before trading away its captain and leader Claude Giroux. Now, this is a team that has Kevin Hayes as the No. 1 centerman and an unrecognizable bottom six. The organization is also in an evaluation period and will likely be giving more minutes to less experienced players.

The Leafs could certainly get this total over the proverbial line themselves, but we’d prefer to hit the Leafs’ team total instead of the full-game total. 

With Mike Yeo possibly losing the dressing room with Yandle likely sitting, this Flyers team could come out flat and uninterested. The team already hasn’t responded to Yeo’s coaching since he took over the coaching duties in early December and this won’t win him any popularity contest either. 

The Leafs are getting scoring from all three lines with William Nylander now contributing on the third line, but we can’t expect them to score six goals tonight. We aren't putting any money on it but we're certainly leaning on the Under.

PredictionUnder 6.5 (+100 at bet365)

Best bet

This could have been a great spot to hit the Flyers, but with them playing tomorrow, the goalie issues, the lack of offense, and now Yeo likely sitting the most vocal guy in the locker room, this Philly team could be down three goals before the end of the first period. 

The potential loss of Yandle is huge and with the Leafs looking to play a solid game in front of Campbell in his first game back, we’re hitting the Leafs -0.5 in the first period. Only the Panthers have scored more first-period goals than the Leafs this season while the Flyers have given up the third-most first-period goals since January 1.

PickMaple Leafs first period -0.5 (+105 at bet365)

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