The Toronto Maple Leafs will open a back-to-back home-and-home with the last-place Columbus Blue Jackets tonight as both clubs continue their seasons following the All-Star break.
Auston Matthews is still out, but the Leafs’ offense gets to feast on the most generous home team with a 3.96 GAA this season. However, with this being each team’s first game since a long layover, is there value on some Under props from the home-side dogs?
Find out my best bet in my NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets.
Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets best odds
Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets picks and predictions
With this being the first game for either team in over nine days, the variance is high today and I believe that's why we’re seeing a Toronto moneyline that could be 40 to 50 points long thanks to the scheduled spot.
Due to some of the uncertainty, I think it’s safer to take some bigger swings in the prop market, which means targeting some Unders with the Blue Jackets.
Patrick Laine did not practice this morning but looks like a go. The No.29 offense in hockey could be seeing Ilya Samsonov in net which is the worst-case scenario for them with Joseph Woll likely starting tomorrow in Toronto.
The Leafs are one of the best shot-suppressing teams in hockey, and coupled with a projected slower game speed, I don’t see the home side getting 30 shots.
I like Johnny Gaudreau’s Under 2.5 shots at -105 but if Laine does miss some time, he could find himself shooting more. Gaudreau's Under 0.5 points at +160 is much closer to a coin toss if I’m projecting the Blue Jackets at just over 2.00 goals tonight. The Columbus forward is averaging 0.96 points per game on the season and has a 37.6% point share for a Columbus team that averages 2.55 goals per game.
With the first game back and the Blue Jackets looking for the worst record in the league with Connor Bedard the prize for first pick, we could also see fewer minutes from the forward tonight.
My best bet: Johnny Gaudreau Under 0.5 points (+170)
Looking to bet on some Leafs action? Join Sports Interaction, the best in Canada for new bettors.
Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets moneyline analysis
Oddsmakers had this game up yesterday and Toronto hadn’t moved on the moneyline as -240 road favorites vs. the worst team in the league as of 11 am ET. However, after the Jackets hit practice without Laine, the moneyline moved to -250.
The last time the Leafs were on the road, they were an incredible -356 favorite in Montreal. The near-120-point difference is hard to ignore between two similar teams.
Any knock on Laine is a concern for the Jackets, as he was red-hot before the break having recorded 15 points (five goals) over a 12-game span. This is a player who has already missed chunks of games three separate times this season.
The Jackets have the worst home GAA at 3.96 on the season. I’m not expecting Toronto to come out of their nine-day break and look like a contender, but the Jackets will need some offense tonight as Columbus has allowed at least four goals in five of its last seven games, and projected Joonas Korpisalo is a league-average goalie at best. The Jackets will struggle to record more than two goals tonight.
Toronto has now played three games without Matthews, gone 1-2 SU, and been outscored nine to 12. Matthews was at practice today, but was wearing a non-contact jersey, so it will be John Tavares on the first line with Calle Jarnkrok, William Nylander, and Alex Kerfoot on the second line. It’s not a great lineup, but at -250 and possibly facing a team that sits dead last in point percentage, second-last in goal differential, and has bottom-tier special teams, this is a game Toronto wins 7 out of 10 and possibly more if Samsonov can recapture some of his pre-break success.
This line can only get shorter and I can almost guarantee if you get a piece of the Leafs when the moneyline is -240, you’ll get some closing line value. I’m taking the Leafs in regulation to win at -140.
Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets Over/Under analysis
The first game back after a break always comes with more variance. The Leafs took a 5-4 track-meet win over the Blues following the Christmas break, but if this week’s results are any indication as to how teams are performing out of the break, the Under 6.5 at even money might show the best value with the total.
The Under 6.5 is 7-13 O/U since play resumed on Monday and 4-8 O/U in the first game two teams played since the All-Star break.
Things can be slow as teams get back to mid-season form and this usually has a detrimental effect on goal production. However, with the Blue Jackets seeing an average of 6.41 total goals per game, there's still a possibility of this game hitting the Over. But with Matthews, the Jackets struggling to score goals, and the shot- and a chance-suppressing play of the Leafs, I’m certainly leaning on this Under.
The BJs will have their best goaltender in with Korpisalo while even if the Leafs go with backup Woll, I don’t see the home side getting more than 29 shots tonight.
The one recent strength of the Jackets has been their penalty kill, which hasn’t allowed a goal in seven of its last 10 games. If Columbus can nullify a Toronto power play that was driving its offense before the break, this could be a 3-1 game.
I’m not betting on it personally but lean to the Under. If this was in the middle season and not following such a long break, I would get down on this Under.
Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets betting trend to know
The Blue Jackets are 1-8 SU in their last nine games vs. the Atlantic. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets.
Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets game info
| Location: | Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH |
| Date: | Friday, February 10, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN4, Bally Sports Ohio |
Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets key injuries
