Lightning vs Wild Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: January 4

The Tampa Bay Lightning will play their second game in as many nights vs. a Minnesota Wild team that has been off since December 31 and has won eight of its last 10 games. 

The Wild are being undervalued on the moneyline while the total seems inflated as well. However, the real value might lie in the shots on goal market.

Here are my free NHL picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Wild.

Lightning vs Wild best odds

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Lightning vs Wild picks and predictions

Mats Zuccarello has been more than a supporting winger over the last couple of months as the first-line forward has 10 goals and 22 points over his last 17 games and is averaging 3.24 shots on goal per game over that stretch. His shooting floor has been elite and profitable, as he has at least three shots in 14 of those 17 games.

The line of Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov, and Sam Steel has been leaned on heavily with the team finding success in the win column. Kaprizov has hit the Over on his shot total just once over his last 10 games as even he knows Zuccarello is playing his best hockey of the season.

The Wild’s top line will face a Tampa team on the backend of a traveling back-to-back and with Andrei Vasilevskiy likely drawing the start for the Bolts, Zuccarello & Co. will take the high-volume shot mentality vs. the Vezina-winning goalie. 

Looking at both teams’ shots metrics, this is a neutral matchup for volume on both sides, but considering Zuccarello has been as short as -150 for this prop, tonight’s +100 price makes up for the lack of edge in the SOG matchup. 

The Wild will have fresh legs having not played since Saturday while the Bolts were in Chicago last night and played the lowly Blackhawks. 

My best bet: Mats Zuccarello Over 2.5 shots on goal (+100)

Lightning vs Wild moneyline analysis

The Wild have been off since December 31, but even though they might be idle, they’ll face the Lightning, who played last night in Chicago and needed a late third-period goal to pull ahead and win the game.

Minnesota opened as a slight -115 favorite and hasn’t seen much line movement. Vasilveskiy will likely start for the visitors after Brian Elliott played last night. That’s being priced in here, and if this game were on neutral ice with both teams coming in rested, the books are saying the Bolts would be roughly -170 on the ML, which seems awfully short to me.

The Wild are winners of eight of their last 10 games and have a Top-5 point percentage since December 1. Tampa has also been one of the best teams in hockey over that stretch with an 11-3 SU record and a +21 goal differential, but the Wild are still undervalued here.

Basically, if you like the Lightning here at -105, you’re saying you'd take the Bolts at home with a normal schedule spot as -195 favorites (-105 tonight, 50 points for the home swing, and 40ish points for the back-to-back spot). For a team like Minnesota that has been playing as competitively as any other team of late and comes into this game at full health, that’s too short of a price on the Bolts.

Minnesota closed as -130 favorites at home vs. Dallas two games ago — the best team in the Western Conference. 

Tampa has also been an average road team with a 9-7 SU record and the league’s No.15 point percentage. The Lightning have a negative goal differential when on the road and have done the majority of their damage at home with a 15-4-1 record and a plus-27 goal differential. 

The Lightning might have the edge in special teams, but it’s not worth bypassing a hot team at home playing an out-of-conference team on the backend of a back-to-back at -115. 

Lightning vs Wild Over/Under analysis

I was surprised to see this total hit 6.5 last night after most books opened it at 6. The Chicago game was an easy look-ahead spot for the Lightning and the reason Brian Elliott got the first game of a back-to-back. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Under saw some more money come in once Vasilevskiy is confirmed.

Filip Gustavsson has been confirmed for the Wild and that’s not a great thing for the Over 6.5 crowd. He stopped 31 of the 32 shots he saw vs. the Jets in his last outing and is a decent 8-5-1 with a 2.38 GAA and a .920 save percentage. He actually ranks 14th in the NHL in goals saved above expected/60 — just six spots below Vasilevskiy.

Both teams rank in the Top 10 in goals allowed at 5-on-5 while the Wild rank second, behind the Canes, in expected goals against at even strength, per Money Puck. 

These are two teams who have not been profitable to the Over this season and likely should have a total of 6 tonight. 

Scoring has been up since the restart but we’re at the point where teams are three-to-five games past the Christmas break and getting back to mid-season form. This is the first 6.5 total Minnesota has seen in five games and the home side is 8-2 to the Under in its last 10. Tampa has seen a total of 6.5 in just four of its last 10 games. It's a strong lean on the Under here. 

Lightning vs Wild betting trend to know

The Wild are 4-0 SU in their last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs Wild.

Lightning vs Wild game info

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