Lightning vs Bruins Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: March 25

The Lightning are in a weird funk, and the Burins aren't the team to try and break out of it against. See why our NHL picks can't back away from Linus Ullmark on home ice.

Last Updated: Mar 25, 2023 11:38 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

The Tampa Bay Lightning continue their road trip with a Saturday afternoon stop at TD Garden against the Boston Bruins.

The Lightning were embarrassed in the second stop of the trip, as the Ottawa Senators blasted them 7-2. It was the third straight loss for the Lightning.

The Bruins are on a roll yet again, winning five in a row after a two-game losing streak from March 12-14. Boston just shows no signs of letting up.

This is the fourth and final meeting of the regular season between these Atlantic Division combatants. Boston won the first two in the series, while Tampa eked out a 3-2 win at Amalie Arena on January 26.

Will the Lightning be able to rebound and get a much-needed win, or will the Bruins stay hot and add to Tampa’s woes? We’ll discuss in our NHL betting picks for Lightning vs. Bruins on Saturday, March 25.

Lightning vs Bruins best odds

Lightning vs Bruins picks and predictions

The Lightning have managed 90 points through 73 games, putting them in line to likely again face the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round of the playoffs. But Tampa Bay has been uncharacteristically bad lately, getting outscored 15-6 during the current losing streak.

In fact, Tampa Bay now has just a plus-24 goal differential, which pales in comparison to the Atlantic Division leader Boston Bruins at plus-116. Of course, most teams don’t match up with that.

But Tampa is sixth in the Eastern Conference in goal differential, and goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has been surprisingly giving lately. He’s just 3-4-2 with a 3.42 GAA and .883 SV% in nine March starts.

In addition, the 28-year-backstop is a very ordinary 13-12-0 with a 2.76 GAA and .911 SV% in 25 games on the road this season, while going 1-2-0 with a 3.06 GAA and .903 SV% against the Bruins in three outings.

On the flip side, Linus Ullmark is expected to patrol the crease Saturday. He is a sparkling 19-1-1 with a minuscule 1.73 GAA and .941 SV% in 22 appearances at TD Garden this season. The All-Star has been so-so against the Lightning, though, going 1-1-0 with a 3.05 GAA and .914 SV%.

Despite Ullmark’s mediocre numbers against the Lightning, Tampa Bay is playing so poorly right now that there is no way you can consider backing it. 

Boston isn’t priced too out of control on the money line, so back the home side and don’t think twice about it.

My best bet: Bruins moneyline (-164)

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Lightning vs Bruins moneyline analysis

The Lightning have not only dropped the past three games, but they were favored in each of the outings, too. 

As an underdog, Tampa Bay has won the past two outright, but it is 4-9 in the past 13 on the puck line when serving as a ‘dog. That includes a 1-2 mark on the puck line as an underdog all three times against Boston this season.

The Bruins have been sizzling lately, and most of the season. During the team’s five-game win streak, it’s won four of the five games by two or more goals to cover the puck line. The lone exception was a 2-1 win over the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday night.

The Lightning are just 2-5 in the past seven games on the road, while going a dismal 2-7 in the past nine against teams with a winning road record. What has become of the Lightning?

The Bruins have won seven of the past eight inside the Atlantic Division, while going 36-15 in the past 51 games against winning teams. There is no reason to be crazy and go against the B’s, especially when Ullmark is in between the pipes and on home ice.

Lightning vs Bruins Over/Under analysis

The Over has cashed in four of the past five games for the Lightning, and lately it’s been shoddy defense and poor goaltending which has led to the results.

The Over is also 7-2-1 in the past 10 tries against teams with a winning record, while cashing in four of the past five against Eastern Conference foes.

For the Bruins, however, it’s all about the Under. The Under is 11-4-1 in the past 16 against winning sides, and 4-0-1 in the past five at home. The Under is also 4-0 in the past four meetings with the Lightning in Beantown, and 4-1 in the past five in the series overall.

Based on the series trends, go low on the total, but go lightly. I much prefer just backing the Bruins straight up, but if I were to do a parlay, I’d take Boston and the Under rather lightly.

Lightning vs Bruins betting trend to know

The Lightning are just 1-5 in the past six meetings against the Bruins, and the B’s are an impressive 42-9 in the past 51 games on home ice. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs Bruins.

Lightning vs Bruins game info

Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Date: Saturday, March 25, 2023
Puck drop: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sun, NESN

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