The New York Rangers head into tonight's rivalry clash with the New York Islanders as sizable 59% home favorites, with puck drop from Madison Square Garden scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.
The hosts may have struggled in this matchup last season, but my Islanders vs. Rangers predictions are backing their recent form and Igor Shesterkin's play.
Find out more in my NHL picks for Tuesday, Oct. 6.
TOP PICK
Islanders vs Rangers prediction: Rangers
Play up to 62%.
The New York Rangers have settled in after losing their opener and have won three straight since then. They've outscored opponents 11-3 during that span, beating the Lightning, Red Wings, and Mammoth.
More importantly, New York's defensive success hasn't been solely reliant on Igor Shesterkin. The Rangers have allowed just 24.75 shots per contest, while killing off 11 of 12 opposing power plays. Shesterkin has done the rest, posting a 1.68 GAA and .934 SV%.
That defensive structure should translate well against a New York Islanders team still missing one of its best players, Mat Barzal. New York's 6-0 win over New Jersey looked dominant, but Sorokin still made 37 saves, and Semyon Varlamov could get the start tonight after nearly two years without a regular-season appearance.
The Rangers have been elite at limiting opportunities in front of Shesterkin. At 59%, I see enough value to back the hosts.
COVERS INTEL: The Rangers have allowed just one goal in 19:22 of 4-on-5 penalty-kill time, limiting opponents to only 13 shots on goal while shorthanded.
Islanders vs Rangers combo
I'm eyeing a Rangers victory, but I also like the idea of a low-scoring contest. The Islanders are allowing an NHL-low one goal per game through two contests, and while Varlamov is expected to start tonight over Ilya Sorokin, this has historically been a low-scoring matchup.
Across four meetings last season, these two averaged just 4.25 goals per game, and both teams have also done a nice job on the penalty kill so far.
Pavel Dorofeyev rounds out this combo. He's averaging 3.75 shots on goal per game and has cashed the Over in three of his last four outings. He also had no issues generating chances against the Isles last season, averaging 3.5 shots across two meetings.
Islanders vs Rangers combo
- Rangers moneyline
- Under 5.5
- Pavel Dorofeyev Over 2.5 shots
Islanders vs Rangers player prop: Matthew Schaefer Over 0.5 assists
Play up to 52%.
Second-year defenseman Matthew Schaefer is off to a great start this season, already notching a pair of helpers. The former first overall pick finished 2025-26 with 36 assists, including one in four meetings with the Rangers.
Though it's only a two-game sample, Schaefer currently leads the Isles with 4.39 xGF/60 with him on the ice, while New York is also generating 43.46 scoring chances per 60 during his minutes. Those numbers highlight just how involved he's been in driving offense from the blue line.
With two assists already and a prominent offensive role, Schaefer is worth a look to record another helper tonight.
Islanders vs Rangers goal scorer: Eeli Tolvanen anytime goal
Play up to 25%.
Eeli Tolvanen has been one of the Rangers’ hottest finishers early on, already scoring three times through four games. While two of those came into an empty net, his underlying numbers still show that he's consistently putting himself in position to score.
Tolvanen is averaging 1.69 individual expected goals and 3.34 high-danger chances per 60 minutes across all situations. He's also generating 11.13 individual shot attempts per 60, showing there’s legitimate volume behind his early production.
At just 21%, I’m willing to take a shot on Tolvanen finding the back of the net again tonight.
- Top picks: 3-1, +1.20 units
- Combos: 0-4, -4.00
Islanders vs Rangers odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Islanders 43% | Rangers 59%
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (52%) | Under 5.5 (49%)
- Spread: Islanders +1.5 (67%) | Rangers -1.5 (35%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Islanders vs Rangers trend
The New York Islanders have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.00 Units / 74% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Islanders vs Rangers
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Islanders vs Rangers latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
