It’s an Atlantic Division showdown at the KeyBank Center as the Montreal Canadiens visit the Buffalo Sabres to open their Round 2 series on Wednesday, May 6.
Our Canadiens vs. Sabres predictions and NHL picks back Jakub Dobes to stay locked in and continue his strong postseason run, with the Montreal netminder expected to deliver again in Game 1.
- UPDATE: Added prediction for who will win & goal scorer pick.
Canadiens vs Sabres Game 1 prediction
Who will win Canadiens vs Sabres Game 1?
Buffalo Sabres: Montreal found ways to win in Round 1 despite losing the five-on-five possession battle and expected goals battle, so I’m expecting the poor five-on-five play to catch up with the Habs against the Sabres in the series opener.
Buffalo allowed the second-fewest goals per game (2.0) and posted a solid 87.5 penalty-kill percentage during the opening round, while also posting a high-end 53.4 Corsi For percentage and 52.9 expected goals percentage at 5-on-5.
Canadiens vs Sabres best bet: Jakub Dobes Over 26.5 saves (-110)
Montreal Canadiens goalie Jakub Dobes has been incredible with an elite .916 save percentage with 30.35 goals saved above expected across 26 games since Marco Marciano took over as the interim goalie coach January 28.
So, with the Habs ranking 23rd with a 48.6 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five in the regular season and 14th out of 16 teams in Round 1, I’m expecting Dobes to be busy in the series opener.
After all, the Buffalo Sabres finished Round 1 with a solid 53.3 CF% at 5-on-5 while averaging the third-most shots per 60 minutes (30.9) during their six-game series against the Boston Bruins.
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Canadiens vs Sabres Game 1 same-game parlay
The Sabres averaged 3.33 goals per game in Round 1, and there have been six or more goals in each of the past eight games between Montreal and Buffalo, with the total at 6.5 for seven of the eight.
Additionally, the Canadiens generated the fewest expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (1.99) in the opening round, so I’m anticipating an uptick in scoring chances from the Habs after posting a middling 2.69 xGF/60 at 5-on-5 during the regular season.
I’m also particularly looking to the new-look second line of Jake Evans, centering Ivan Demidov and Alex Newhook, as candidates to break out. Demidov is an elite offensive talent, while Newhook has ample postseason experience and an excellent motor and compete level to create space and time for the trio.
Canadiens vs Sabres SGP
- Over 5.5
- Alex Newhook Over 0.5 points
- Ivan Demidov Over 0.5 points
Canadiens vs Sabres Game 1 goal scorer pick
Tage Thompson (+135)
Buffalo star Tage Thompson hasn’t scored since Game 1 of the playoffs despite racking up 2.32 expected goals and a team-high 20 scoring chances. He’s also only found the back of the net in two of his past 12 games dating back to the regular season, and his 9.1 shooting percentage during the stretch is well below the 15.1% mark he posted across 384 regular-season contests since the beginning of the 2021-22 campaign.
Canadiens vs Sabres odds for Game 1
- Moneyline: Canadiens +105 | Sabres -125
- Puck Line: Canadiens +1.5 (-240) | Sabres -1.5 (+195)
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-120) | Under Under 5.5 (+100)
Canadiens vs Sabres trend
There have been six or more goals in each of the past eight games between the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Sabres.
How to watch Canadiens vs Sabres Game 1
| Location | KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, May 6, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT, CBC |
Canadiens vs Sabres latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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