Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Picks: Tough Back-to-Back for Habs

May 6, 2021 |
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Picks: Tough Back-to-Back for Habs
Auston Matthews is one goal shy of reaching the 40-goal mark for the third time in his career. He leads the NHL with 39 in 48 games and faces a Habs team that's struggling between the pipes.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Auston Matthews is one goal shy of reaching the 40-goal mark for the third time in his career. He leads the NHL with 39 in 48 games and faces a Habs team that's struggling between the pipes.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The NHL betting board has six games on Thursday night including a battle between a pair of Original Six rivals as the Montreal Canadiens face off against the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena. 

The Buds are six points ahead of the Oilers for first place in the North Division while the Habs are in fourth, trailing the Jets by two points. 

With the Stanley Cup playoffs around the corner, we bring you our best free Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs picks and predictions for Thursday, May 6, with the puck dropping at 7 p.m. ET. 

Canadiens vs Maple Leafs odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

Toronto landed on TwinSpires' odds board at -195 and is out to -225 at 4 p.m. ET, but there's two-way action on this game. The Maple Leafs are taking 58 percent of bets, while the Canadiens are drawing 55 percent of cash on the moneyline. "A sizable wager on the Canadiens has us pretty split so far," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The total is stable at 6, shaded to the Under, which is landing 65 percent of bets/59 percent of money.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Canadiens at Maple Leafs betting preview

Injuries

Canadiens: Carey Price G (Questionable), Thomas Tatar LW (Out), Shea Weber D (Out), Paul Byron LW (Out), Jonathan Drouin LW (Out), Brendan Gallagher RW (Out).
Maple Leafs: Justin Holl D (Questionable), Zach Hyman LW (Out), Nick Foligno LW (Out), Frederik Andersen G (Out), Zach Bogosian D (Out).

Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Canadiens are 5-13 in their last 18 road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs.

Puckline pick

Montreal played last night and was crushed 5-1 in Ottawa. The Canadiens are still 3-1 in their last four games and are practically locked into a playoff spot, needing to go pointless in their final four games while the Flames win out in order to fall to fifth place. 

The Leafs last took to the ice on Monday, when they were edged by this Canadiens team 3-2 in overtime. Prior to that defeat they had reeled off five wins in a row to take a commanding lead atop the North Division standings. 

These Canadian foes have already matched up eight times this season, with Toronto winning five times. Each team has been banged up recently with the biggest injuries to starting goalies Carey Price and Frederik Andersen, who are both nearing their return. 

Andersen will play for Toronto's AHL affiliate today but Price will dress for this contest, although whether or not he plays is yet to be determined. With Jake Allen playing (badly) in net for Montreal last night, the Habs would be thrilled to be able to go with the veteran Price over 21-year-old Cayden Primeau, who has just two NHL games under his belt. 

That said, Price wasn't having his best season even before a concussion knocked him out of action on April 19, and has a 3.48 GAA with a .868 save percentage in four games against the Leafs this year.

A big reason for Toronto's lead atop the division has been the outstanding play of Jack Campbell, who took over as the No. 1 netminder following Andersen's injury in mid-March. 

Campbell is 15-2-2 with a 2.11 GAA and .925 save percentage, and regardless of who the Habs go with in net, the Leafs will have the advantage. With the Leafs also the superior team on the offensive end of the ice, back them on the puckline. 

PREDICTION: Toronto -1.5 (+130)

Over/Under pick

The Under has gone 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams but the Over/Under was 6 or 6.5 in each of those games. The total for tonight is just 5.5, a number they have surpassed in four of eight meetings this season.

Led by the league's leading goal-scorer in Auston Matthews, the Leafs are sixth in the NHL in scoring with 3.33 goals per game while ranking first in high-danger chances per 60 minutes at even strength.

The Canadiens are a modest 16th in the league with 2.85 gpg, but they have a deep and skilled group of forwards and also generate plenty of scoring chances, ranking eighth in HDCF/60 in 5v5 hockey. 

Both of these squads have also struggled on the penalty kill, with the Habs 22nd in the league by killing 78.4 percent of all penalties, and the Buds 27th with a PK percentage of just 76.7. Take the Over. 

PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (-125)

Canadiens vs Maple Leafs betting card

  • Toronto -1.5 (+130)
  • Over 5.5 (-125)

Picks made on 5/06/2021 at 9:25 a.m. ET

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