Coming off a tough 1-0 win over Sweden in the semifinals yesterday, do Finland have enough in the tank to knock off the favored Canadians and win the gold — even after losing to the home side 6-3 in the group stage?
Find out why I like plenty of offense tonight in the gold medal game between Canada and Finland at the 2022 World Junior Championship in our picks and predictions.
Canada vs Finland odds
| Canada | Finland | |
|---|---|---|
| -260 | Moneyline | +210 |
| -1.5 (+100) | Puck line | +1.5 (-120) |
| Over 6.5 (+105) | Total | Under 6.5 (-125) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of August 20, 2022.
Canada vs Finland predictions
Predictions made on 8/20/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for World Junior hockey betting, here are some of the best bonuses available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $200 in first bet offer — regardless of if your bet wins or loses! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two first bet offer bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Claim Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Canada vs Finland game info
• Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
• Date: Saturday, August 20, 2022
• Puck drop: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Canada vs Finland picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Puck line analysis
Canada and Finland will meet for the second time this week, however, a gold medal is on the line tonight at Rogers Place.
Finland are coming off a physical, defensive 1-0 win over Sweden yesterday, while the Canadians had the easier task of eliminating Czechia as massive favorites. Normally, the easier game might be a disadvantage for the Canadians coming into a final, but it will be tough for Finland to play as inspired as they did yesterday while Canada have shown an ability to adapt.
As we’ve seen in previous tournaments, cruising through the first six games and facing no adversity can be detrimental, but Canada have played anything but a perfect tourney and even struggled vs. Czechia in the second period yesterday.
The outcome was positive for the squad, which looked like a team that could rely on its goaltending if things aren’t going as planned.
“We were not completely satisfied with our second period,” Canadian goalie and tourney save percentage-leading Dylan Garan told the media following their semifinal win.
“We knew we needed to have a stronger third period to finish off the game. I thought we cleaned up some things and played better in the third despite giving up a couple of goals. Ever since my first year at World Juniors when we lost to the United States in the gold medal game, I have been waiting for this day to come. It is exciting to be in this moment, but we know the toughest test is still to come.”
Plenty of that is lip service but it does show bettors that this Canada team is able and willing to make adjustments mid-game, even with the lead.
The Canucks also split up Connor Bedard and captain and tournament leading scorer Mason McTavish vs. Czechia. The results were great, as both players scored but it also allowed the favorites to roll with four lines.
The scary thing for Finland is that Canada’s best line was the Johnson-Stankoven-Foerster line, which had two goals and four assists.
If Finland have to worry about three elite scoring lines and a power play that is scoring at 57.1% in the tournament, it’s going to be a tough road to keep things close considering they gave up six goals on 37 shots (two power-play goals) in the group stage.
The Finnish penalty kill has also struggled in the tournament, killing eight of 14 penalties.
Canada will likely see Finnish goalie Juha Jatkola, after the 19-year-old tender grabbed the 23-save shutout in the semifinals, but the difference between Sweden and Canada offensively is huge and I don’t expect to see a 1-0 game today.
Finland can’t match this tournament-leading Canadian offense and are too reliant on the power play, with 14 of their 28 goals coming with the man advantage.
With such a quick turnaround for the Finns, after a huge rivalry game that was defensively exhausting, this could be a big letdown spot for the underdogs.
Prediction: Canada -1.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
When these two teams met in the group stage, the Over 6.5 hit three minutes into the third period and I’m expecting another high-scoring affair tonight in Edmonton with a total of just 6 this time.
Finland having to regroup and needing to play another perfect game just 24 hours after their 1-0 win vs. Sweden is a lot to ask. That rivalry game likely took something out of the team physically, and now they have to slow down the tournament’s best offense that already potted six goals against them when first place in Group A was on the line five days ago.
Bettors shouldn’t put too much weight into the 1-0 win over Sweden, as this is still a Finnish team that has scored 28 goals over six games, with 14 of those coming on the power play. Behind the Canadians, this is the next best offense in the tournament and Finland scored three times on 25 shots in the earlier meeting that closed with a total of 6.5.
Ten of the tournament’s Top-11 point leaders are from Finland or Canada, and this game will also feature the Top-2 power plays that are scoring over 55% of the time.
I’m expecting a high-scoring final tonight and before bettors place their Over/Under bets, they should check the house rules and make sure that it includes overtime as some books will only have markets that don’t include extra time.
A 4-2 game can easily hit the Over 6 with an empty-netter as well.
Prediction: Over 6 (-120 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Kent Johnson opened the scoring in the semifinals vs. Czechia, and has cemented himself as the offensive catalyst for the Canucks’ new important second line with center Logan Stankoven and Tyson Foerster.
He led all Canadians in shots on goal yesterday with five and added two assists — both on the power play’s top unit. His role is expanding offensively, now that Bedard and McTavish have been split up, and his two goals in the tournament shouldn’t sway bettors looking at his anytime goal and points markets.
With the Finnish penalty kill struggling, as it had killed just six of 12 penalties heading into the semifinals, Canada and that elite top unit should see plenty of chances against a tired Finnish team coming off an emotionally and physically exhausting game yesterday. The Finns could take a few extra penalties today just being a step slower after yesterday's workout.
Not every book has player props, but Coolbet has a handful, and Johnson Over 1.5 points at +210 is the best on the board as Bedard and McTavish’s markets are heavily taxed.
Pick: Kent Johnson Over 1.5 points (+210 at Coolbet)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s Canada vs. Finland picks, you could win $95.00 on a $10 bet?
