The Washington Commanders are once again dealing with an offensive existence that doesn't include Jayden Daniels.
Not long ago, he was a rapidly rising quarterback named the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2024, a standout campaign when Daniels led the surprising Commanders to an NFC Championship Game appearance.
But he's suffered a lengthy list of injuries over the past two seasons, now including dislocating the same elbow twice. He's missed one game and is in jeopardy of sitting out another. So, when will Jayden Daniels return?
Let's assess his outlook, and first look at the Colts vs. Commanders odds ahead of their Week 4 matchup in London on Sunday, Oct. 4, the next game Daniels could miss.
Colts vs. Commanders odds
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Colts
When will Jayden Daniels return?
There's beginning to be some deeper fears whenever Daniels is suffering from an elbow injury. For now though, there's at least a sprinkle of short-term optimism for Week 4, as Daniels will practice in a limited capacity on Wednesday ahead of the Washington Commanders' clash in London against the Indianapolis Colts.
However, the practice is more of a jog-through, as Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic notes, though seeing Daniels on the field is encouraging nonetheless.
That comes after concerns both for the near and distant future. Daniels suffered the injury during Week 2, and it was especially discouraging amid a game when the passer was playing well, including rushing for 69 yards on seven carries.
He dislocated the same elbow last year, an injury that effectively ended his season. Missing extended time then was the final blow during an injury-marred sophomore campaign when Daniels also sat out due to hamstring and knee issues.
It initially seemed he's unlikely to play this week, and NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said as much in his report. Though there's now some chance, especially with Daniels practicing. Rapoport also said Daniels is expected to be back at "three weeks or sooner," and the longer timeline leads to a Week 5 return.
He'll travel with the team to London, but there are more significant lingering questions. Daniels has now suffered the same major injury twice in a short period, and beyond the missed time, he also left other games early last year. There's reason to worry about his broader durability, and specifically the left elbow, which could need offseason surgery, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.
So whenever he does return, his effectiveness could be in doubt.
Jayden Daniels injury history
| Date | Team | Injury | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 26, 2019 |
 ASU |
Left knee strain / ankle sprain | Nov. 9, 2019 Missed 1 game |
| Nov. 26, 2022 |
 LSU |
Right ankle sprain | Dec. 3, 2022 No starts missed |
| Nov. 4, 2023 |
LSU |
Concussion protocol | Nov. 11, 2023 No starts missed |
| Oct. 20, 2024 |
 WAS |
Rib sprain | Oct. 27, 2024 No starts missed |
| Sept. 11, 2025 |
WAS |
Knee strain | Oct. 5, 2025 Missed 2 games |
| Oct. 19, 2025 |
WAS |
Thigh / Hamstring strain | Nov. 2, 2025 Missed 1 game |
| Nov. 2, 2025 |
WAS |
Left elbow dislocation (1st) | Nov. 2, 2025 Missed 3 games (shut down later in December) |
| Sept. 20, 2026 |
WAS |
Left elbow dislocation (2nd) | Week-to-week Return date TBD |
Who has replaced Jayden Daniels?
This role has fallen to Marcus Mariota over the past two seasons, often with underwhelming results.
The former second overall pick is now a journeyman of sorts, and he posted a 10:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio across eight starts in relief of Daniels last season.
There have been mixed results this year too, though in his lone start during Week 3 after proper preparation, Mariota impressed throughout a stunning win over the defending champion Seattle Seahawks, throwing three touchdown passes with zero interceptions and 183 passing yards.
Mariota often focuses on short-to-intermediate passing, which shows in his 6.3 yards per pass attempt this season, and especially against the Seahawks when that fell to 5.9. But he still has the athleticism to escape and get creative when needed, and overall can be an effective enough short-term caretaker.
Like many backups though, the problems come when his role is extended beyond spot starting for a few weeks. That's when Daniels' absence, if it continues or resumes again down the line, will loom large for both the Commanders and the betting lines.
Jayden Daniels injury: Odds impact
The NFL Week 4 odds show the Colts as the -3.5 favorite for the London game as of late afternoon on Sept. 30. That's already been moving notably with the week of practice just beginning, as the game widely opened at Colts -4.5 in the NFL odds.
The mere possibility of Daniels starting, even potentially while still hampered and wearing a brace, is playing a major role in that movement. Remember, Daniels exited in the second quarter of Week 2, and he needed only that time to throw for 96 yards and a touchdown while averaging 9.9 yards per run.
We see a similar tale when looking at the total, which has already increased from an opening number of 46 to 47, and touching 47.5. No matter who's under center, there are plenty of scoring chances available against a Colts defense ranked third-last in both points per game (30.3) and passing yards allowed (276.0).
But there are more opportunities with Daniels out there, though still lingering uncertainty tied to exactly what version of him we'd get if he does play. He's very likely trying to manage a longer-term injury, and that murkiness makes it difficult to forecast how the Commanders' offense could look, and any impact on the player prop markets.
Still, Daniels being healthy enough to play would be a sizable boost to the offensive possibilities on Sunday.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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