Saturday features the Houston Texans facing the Los Angeles Chargers in a pivotal AFC showdown.
My Texans vs. Chargers predictions are calling for the Houston defense and star receiver Nico Collins to lead the way to the road upset in Week 17.
Read more in my NFL picks for December 27.
Our best Texans vs Chargers SGP for Week 17
The Houston Texans bring an elite defense to SoFi Stadium to face the Los Angeles Chargers, and I expect the road underdogs to win outright.
Houston has allowed the second-fewest yards and lowest EPA per play, surrendered the fewest points per game, and ranks second in turnover differential. The Texans also lead the NFL in pass-rush win rate, rank second in run-stop win rate, and have faced the fourth-toughest schedule by DVOA.
Offensively, Houston has hit its stride during a seven-game winning streak, averaging 25.4 points per game and ranking 11th in dropback EPA.
Still, I don’t expect Houston to completely shut down Los Angeles. The Chargers have averaged 27.8 points across their past five home games, and SoFi Stadium provides ideal conditions for both offenses.
Texans star Nico Collins is a key piece of the same-game parlay. He’s eclipsed his receiving yards total in six of the past eight games while averaging 5.3 receptions, 8.8 targets, and 90.1 receiving yards per contest.
While Los Angeles hasn’t been consistently beaten through the air and allows the seventh-lowest yards per attempt, the Bolts have multiple cornerbacks listed as day-to-day. Boasting a 23.4% target share this season, Collins poses a matchup nightmare.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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