Have you seen those videos where a runner or cyclist prematurely celebrates winning the race only to have the person in second place blow past them at the finish line?
Don’t be that guy in your NFL survivor pool.
Making it to Week 17 is very impressive, but it isn’t the goal. You still have two more weeks of NFL insanity to navigate, and the home stretch of the schedule throws more boobytraps at you than the opening scene of “Raiders of the Lost Arc”.
If you’re on the fence about who to roll with in your Week 17 NFL picks, I do my best to guide you with my favorite NFL survivor pool play as well as highlight the “safest” selection, according to the NFL odds.
Best survivor pool bets for Week 17
Cincinnati Bengals
Denver Broncos
My pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Opponent: vs. Arizona Cardinals
Moneyline odds: -350 (77.78% implied win probability)
There’s a good chance many poolies still have the Cincinnati Bengals hanging around as a Week 17 option.
Joe Burrow’s early-season injury and Cincy’s dog shit defense made the Bengals survivor poison for most of the schedule. But with Burrow back and Cincinnati showing fight in the past month, oddsmakers have it as a hefty home favorite this Sunday.
Arizona can be a pesky team on the road, but this Cardinals defense is just as bad as the Bengals' and is missing starters at all three levels — especially in the secondary.
There are also holes on an offensive line that has allowed QB Jacoby Brissett to feel the fourth-highest rate of pressure in the land.
This trip to Ohio in December will be just the fourth time Arizona has played outdoors this season, with the Cardinals' offense managing scores of 15, 17, and 22 points in the previous three open-air outings.
The extended forecast for Paycor Stadium calls for rain and wind in Cincinnati for this 1 p.m. ET kickoff.
Safest pick: Denver Broncos
Opponent: at Kansas City
Moneyline odds: -800 (88.89% implied win probability)
Can you throw a ball through a tire? Congrats, you’ve just been invited to try out for the Chiefs QB position. Hope you don’t have plans on December 25.
This Xmas Day showcase was supposed to carry a lot of weight in the AFC playoff picture, but that all went down the tubes with Kansas City’s belly flop and subsequent quarterback crunch.
Patrick Mahomes’ replacement, Gardner Minshew, also tore up his knee, which forced former South Dakota State Jackrabbit Chris Oladokun into action in Week 16.
The third-stringer has a short week to get up to speed with the first teamers and prepare for one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Oh, and the Denver Broncos are super pissed after losing to Jacksonville at home on Sunday. Denver is feeling desperation after that loss put the Patriots and Jaguars hot on their heels for the top seed in the AFC entering the final two weeks.
Like most Broncos games this season, things might be a little sweaty in the first half, but Denver should pull away and win in Week 17.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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