The Steelers are laying 2.5 points vs. the Buccaneers with a 40.5-point total in Week 6, but the Bucs’ extra rest after Thursday Night Football creates an intriguing setup for my top spread angle.
Here are my early Steelers vs. Buccaneers predictions and NFL picks for October 18, with kickoff set for 1 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium.
Steelers vs Buccaneers predictions
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Early Steelers vs Buccaneers spread pick: Buccaneers +2.5
I'm locking in a trade on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5, down to a pick 'em.
Even though I had the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Indianapolis Colts on my Circa Million card for NFL Week 5, and they covered, I wasn't impressed. Pittsburgh had a worse early-down success rate but got 50- and 80-yard touchdowns from RB Jaylen Warren to swing the game.
Furthermore, I like investing in the Steelers when they are home and shorting them on the road. Picking Pittsburgh last week was more about fading the Colts, who were returning from London and had an ugly underlying statistical profile.
My pre-Week 5 power ratings made Pittsburgh only 2.0 points better than Tampa on a neutral field. Once I account for home-field advantage, the Buccaneers should be slight favorites.
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Early Steelers vs Buccaneers total pick: Over 40.5
I lean toward the Over 40.5, up to 41.5, because 41 is the second-most key number in NFL totals.
The Steelers allow a full yard more per play on defense in road games, and three of their four starting defensive backs and both starting linebackers have failing grades at Pro Football Focus.
Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles has extra time to prepare because Tampa Bay played on Thursday Night Football last week. The offense also has talent, including RB Bucky Irving, WRs Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin, and two solid offensive tackles.
My prediction: Buccaneers 23, Steelers 20.
Steelers vs Buccaneers odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Steelers vs Buccaneers spread: Steelers -2.5
- Steelers vs Buccaneers moneyline: Steelers 56%, Buccaneers 44%
- Steelers vs Buccaneers Over/Under: 40.5
How to watch Steelers vs Buccaneers
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Tampa, Fla.
- Venue: Raymond James Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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