The Pittsburgh Steelers and Chicago Bears have been two of the biggest surprises so far, with both clubs on pace for postseason positions.
They clash in a non-conference contest in Week 12, with Pittsburgh potentially missing veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers due to an injury to his non-throwing wrist.
I size up the opening NFL odds and project market movement, as well as give my early Steelers vs. Bears predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, November 23.
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Steelers vs Bears predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Steelers vs Bears spread pick: Pittsburgh +3
Aaron Rodgers’ injury is dictating the early movement for this point spread, with the Chicago Bears opening at -2.5 and jumping to a field-goal favorite in the first 12 hours of action. Vig on the Bears -3 line is climbing, which could see a move to -3.5 later in the week.
Of course, that all depends on Rodgers’ health. He left the win over Cincinnati with a left wrist injury, and while he told the team he could go back in, the Pittsburgh Steelers opted to go with backup quarterback Mason Rudolph.
Rudolph has been with Pittsburgh for a long time and knows this playbook well. He sparked the offense against the Bengals, finishing 12-for-16 with 127 yards and a touchdown in relief of Rodgers in Week 11.
An adjustment through the key number of three could be an overreaction to Rodgers' injury, and should that spread get to Steelers +3.5, I believe there's strong value on the underdog on the other side of the field goal.
Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin does his best work as a pup, posting a 63% ATS rate when catching points, including a 34-36 SU mark and 41-28-1 ATS record as a road dog since 2007.
Early Steelers vs Bears total pick: Over 44.5
This Steelers defense is disruptive but not performing at the level of past seasons, which is why we’ve seen Pittsburgh slide down the advanced metrics. It enters Week 12 in the middle of the pack in terms of EPA allowed per play, opponent success rate, and defensive DVOA.
The Bears can put up points and have been especially good at limiting turnovers, entering Sunday with only six total giveaways on the season. Pittsburgh thrives on creating chaos and turnovers, so if Chicago can continue to keep a clean sheet, it should be able to move the chains.
As mentioned, Rudolph isn’t that much of a drop in terms of quarterback play for Pittsburgh. The Steelers didn’t see a downtick in production when he took over for Rodgers against the Bengals, and this Bears defense is almost as soft, sitting in the bottom third of the league in most measurements.
This total got as high as 45.5 and has been bouncing between that number and 45 points at most books. I don’t know if this Over/Under will slide below the key number of 44 points — even if Rodgers is ruled out.
Steelers vs Bears odds
- Steelers vs. Bears spread: Bears -3
- Steelers vs. Bears moneyline: Steelers +135, Bears -160
- Steelers vs. Bears Over/Under: 44.5
How to watch Steelers vs Bears
- Steelers vs. Bears matchup
- Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Chicago
- Venue: Soldier Field
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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