San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl Odds: Can Niners Secure Lombardi before Window Closes?

The inevitability of Patrick Mahomes struck again, and as the now three-time Super Bowl MVP quarterback hit Mecole Hardman in the end zone, he shattered the hearts of San Francisco 49ers fans everywhere.

After a season of dominance in which San Francisco ran through the NFC like hoisting the Lombardi was Kyle Shanahan’s destiny, the 49ers head coach fell in overtime of the Super Bowl for the second time in his career. While this time around wasn’t nearly as shocking as the 28-3 comeback of the New England Patriots over the Atlanta Falcons — the only other Super Bowl to reach overtime — it hurts all the same.

Super Bowl odds once again doubted Mahomes and Andy Reid, with the Niners opening as two to 2.5-point favorites at most books and the Chiefs closing as 1.5-point dogs at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. With the dust settling and K.C. most likely still partying it up in Vegas, one question remains, what's next for the 49ers?

Super Bowl 58 recap

In a game that looked like it would be a messy defensive battle with the Under looking more likely to hit than not, the game total closed between 46.5 and 47. With the help of a nine-point overtime, the Kansas City Chiefs 25-22 caused a push for most, unless they bet the Under before the game total dipping down from 47.5. 

While there ended up being four touchdowns in the end, it did look like at one point this game may end up with a similar score to Super Bowl 53, the Patriots' 13-3 win over the Rams. On the first six drives of the game, there were three punts, two lost fumbles, and one field goal — which was the longest in Super Bowl history for a quarter and half until Harrison Butker broke the record later in the game.

It looked as if the San Francisco 49ers would ride Christian McCaffrey in a clock-chewing low-scoring game, and then both teams managed scores on long drives before half. San Francisco went 67 yards in eight plays with receiver Jauan Jennings — the unsung hero of the 49ers performance — hitting CMC across the field on a double pass, and the Chiefs avoided a first-half shutout with a 13-play, 65-yard drive for three before the half.

An interception by 49ers rookie Ji’Ayir Brown off Mahomes to start the second half looked like it would take the air out of the sails for Chiefs, but instead Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo continued to blitz to stall out San Fran. Per Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs' defense blitzed on 51.2% of dropbacks, its fourth-highest rate in a game under Spagnuolo.

When asked after the game if the blitz-heavy game plan was meant to slow the 49ers rushing attack, Chiefs Pro Bowl cornerback L’Jarius Snead said, “Yes, we knew they were going to run the ball... we just wanted Brock to throw the ball.”

At the end of the day, San Francisco’s offense didn’t have answers on third down when it needed to finish drives and that ended up being the difference. Spagnuolo didn’t want the ball in CMC’s hands and he got his wish.

As the 49ers got away from the ground game, Mahomes and Travis Kelce went to work. It looked like Kelce would be shut down with the All-Pro having as many receptions in the first half as he had meltdowns on the sideline. However, Mahomes and he got into their rhythm, and with Taylor Swift looking on, Kelce had eight catches for 92 yards in the second half.

As both defenses got tired, and San Fran felt the effects of losing star linebacker Dre Greenlaw to a freak Achilles injury on the sideline, the best quarterback in the NFL remained calm. Mahomes led an 11-play, 64-yard drive to tie the game with three seconds left and forced overtime, with the Jake Moody blocked extra point on everyone’s mind. Then in OT, he reminded the world why he can never be counted out and captured his third Super Bowl in five seasons.

THE CHIEFS ARE BACK-TO-BACK SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS! pic.twitter.com/ZzfhTyUXg9

— NFL (@NFL) February 12, 2024

Super Bowl 59 odds

Super Bowl 59 favorites
San Francisco 49ers	+550	+450
Kansas City Chiefs	+750	+750
Baltimore Ravens	+900	+900
Buffalo Bills	+950	+1,200
Detroit Lions	+1,200	+1,200
Cincinnati Bengals	+1,200	+1,500
Miami Dolphins	+1,700	+2,000
Philadelphia Eagles	+2,000	+1,700
Dallas Cowboys	+2,000	+1,500
Green Bay Packers	+2,000	+2,500
Houston Texans	+2,200	+2,500
New York Jets	+2,500	+3,000
Los Angeles Chargers	+2,500	+3,000
Atlanta Falcons	+3,000	+5,000
Jacksonville Jaguars	+3,000	+3,000
Chicago Bears	+3,000	+4,000
Los Angeles Rams	+3,500	+3,000
Cleveland Browns	+3,500	+5,000
Indianapolis Colts	+4,500	+5,000
Minnesota Vikings	+5,500	+4,000
Seattle Seahawks	+6,000	+7,500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+6,500	+7,500
Pittsburgh Steelers	+7,500	+10,000
Arizona Cardinals	+8,000	+7,500
New Orleans Saints	+8,000	+7,500
Washington Commanders	+10,000	+15,000
New York Giants	+10,000	+15,000
New England Patriots	+10,000	+15,000
Las Vegas Raiders	+10,000	+7,500
Denver Broncos	+10,000	+10,000
Tennessee Titans	+15,000	+15,000
Carolina Panthers	+25,000	+25,000

Odds as of February 11, 2024.

49ers next season odds

Looking ahead to the 2024-25 NFL season, the 49ers opened as the Super Bowl favorites at +500 after last night’s heartbreak. With Brock Purdy proving to the world he can at least be in a position to win the Lombardi Trophy if the best quarterback in the NFL isn’t on the opposing sideline, Kyle Shanahan’s team is in good shape heading into the offseason.

With the vast majority of its most important players under contract for next season, Shanahan and GM John Lynch should be expecting another dominant season in the NFC. The 49ers finished first in EPA per play on offense and 10th in EPA per play on defense this season with Purdy leading the league in EPA per play among QBs.

The 49ers have won at least 10 games in four of Shanahan’s last five seasons with two Super Bowl losses to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Even though they’ve yet to win, they have a wide window with Purdy on such a cheap rookie contract. San Fran’s biggest competition remains Kansas City, who sit second in Super Bowl odds at +700, followed by the Baltimore Ravens (+900), Buffalo Bills (+1000), and Detroit Lions (+1200).

49ers offseason plans and free agency

Heading into the offseason, the question that will be on every Niners fan's mind will be, if this team couldn’t bring the Lombardi Trophy to the Bay Area, then how will they next season? Well, with Purdy not needing an extension until next offseason, and Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Trent Williams under contract, the heart of the offense is set to return.

Aiyuk will likely look for a new deal and GM John Lynch will need to add on the offensive line with at least one of his four picks in the first three rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft. Defensively, coordinator Steve Wilks is back, but there’s a little more uncertainty on his side of the ball.

Pass rusher Chase Young is a free agent and could command a larger deal than his play deserves given his potential as a former Top 2 pick, especially after a flashy Super Bowl. The defensive line will have to be a priority, with Young and several depth pieces set to be free agents. 

The linebacker room and secondary are in good shape for the upcoming season, but stars Fred Warner and Charvarius Ward are entering the last years of their current deals. With the injury to Dre Greenlaw in the Super Bowl, adding another linebacker will likely be on Lynch’s agenda this offseason.

Overall, the 49ers look to remain almost entirely intact for the upcoming season with many of their most important playmakers hitting free agency the following season. Could the 2024-25 campaign in which San Fran is the Super Bowl favorite be the last shot in this roster's current form?

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