The beats were as tough as they come here last week when I failed to hit two separate 60+ receiving yard props with each player finishing with 59.
It was a brutal way to open the season, but the good thing about plus-money NFL picks is one or two wins can swing things substantially. It's another week and another big slate to find some plus-money gems.
Latest NFL Week 2 plus money bets
Hall o13.5 carries (+120)
Douglas 5+ receptions (+375)- 🏈 Jackson + Fields + Hurts 50+ rushing yards each (+957)
Breece Hall Over 13.5 carries
The New York backfield leaned heavily on Breece Hall in Week 1. He handled 19 carries, despite some usage from Braelon Allen (six), Isaiah Allen (two), and Justin Fields (12). Hall still accounted for 74% of the RB opportunities and gets a strong matchup this week against a Bills defense that got gashed on the ground Sunday night.
While Allen may take some red-zone work, Hall is clearly the lead back and could push for another 20-touch game.
THE BLITZ projects Hall for 13.7 carries and 55 rushing yards. The 15+ carry prop is available at +155, and 20+ carries at +850 isn’t out of the question—especially with a coaching staff that won’t abandon the run with Fields under center.
The Baltimore offense finished second in EPA/rush and fifth in rushing success rate last week vs. this same Bills defense. Hall’s volume and matchup both point to upside in the carry prop market.
Demario Douglas 5+ receptions
This is a great week to fade the Dolphins’ secondary, with the Patriots coming to town and both Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte potentially undervalued in the market.
Miami's pass defense ranked bottom five in both Success Rate and EPA per dropback in Week 1—against Daniel Jones, on a new team. Drake Maye didn’t attempt a single pass over 25 yards last week, so we can expect a similar short-pass approach, which plays right into Douglas’ role.
Douglas ran just three fewer routes than Boutte (who briefly exited), and he's the go-to option on short throws. He finished with two catches on seven targets, including a drop and a missed connection on an overthrow. His 5+ receptions is +375, and 6+ is +875—strong numbers for a volume-dependent slot guy in a soft matchup. Douglas had 5+ receptions in each game vs. the Dolphins last year.
Boutte can hit his yardage over, but Douglas is the better bet for receptions. THE BLITZ projects 4.03 catches, making his over 3.5 at +145 one of the strongest +EV reception props on the board.
Justin Fields + Lamar Jackson + Jalen Hurts 50+ rushing yards
Let's get cheeky here. I want to hit some QB alt rushing Overs, but with all three signal callers projecting more than 50 yards on the ground, per THE BLITZ, I'm just going to throw them together and put a half unit on it.
Justin Fields should have some trailing game script on Sunday, and we saw last Sunday night that the Bills struggled to contain the edge as Jackson broke outside often. Fields ran 12 times vs. a very good Pittsburgh defense for 48 yards and two scores.
Lamar Jackson finished with six rushes for 70 yards and a score, while Hurts ran 14 times for 62 yards and two TDs.
Jackson has a tough divisional matchup and could be running from Myles Garrett. Even in Week 17 last year, the Baltimore QB ran for 63 yards vs. a bad Browns team in a 35-10 win.
Jalen Hurts has a marquee matchup vs. the Chiefs in a rematch of the Super Bowl where he ran for 72 yards on 11 carries.
Along with Jayden Daniels, these are the four QBs to target each week up to 50 yards. Josh Allen isn't in this category of elite running from a QB (sorry Bills fans), but his skill is closer to the goal line.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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