Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers will try to bounce back from a loss as they host the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday Night Football.
Herbert has struggled with consistency behind a banged-up offensive line, but my NFL picks are betting on a big game from the Pro Bowl quarterback on prime time.
I break down the Justin Herbert odds and bring you my favorite NFL player prop and a same-game parlay for our Vikings vs Chargers predictions on Thursday, October 23.
Justin Herbert prop pick
Justin Herbert best bet: Over 253.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
Justin Herbert balled out in a losing cause on Sunday, completing 37 of 55 passes for 420 yards vs. the Colts. While that was largely due to the game script, it was also because the Los Angeles Chargers couldn't do anything on the ground.
The Bolts run blocking has been pathetic, and they're rolling with Kimani Vidal as their starting RB after injuries to Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris. Their running backs totaled just 23 yards on 10 carries against the Colts, and face a Minnesota Vikings D that held the Eagles to just 45 rushing yards on 23 carries in Week 7.
The Chargers will have to rely on Herbert and the aerial attack to move the ball. Thankfully, they have the weapons to do that. Herbert is surrounded by a trio of talented wide receivers, while rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden has logged 14 catches for 232 yards over the last two weeks.
The Vikings surrendered 326 passing yards on just 23 pass attempts to Jalen Hurts on Sunday. They blitz at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and Herbert excels against the blitz. According to PFF, Herbert had the fourth-best passing grade (87.4) against the blitz last year, and he's fourth in that metric with an 83.9 grade this year.
In addition, there's a chance stud left tackle Joe Alt and right tackle Trey Pipkins III could return after missing the last few weeks. If Herbert gets better protection, his ceiling will be even higher.
Justin Herbert same-game parlay
Justin Herbert Over 253.5 pass yards
Justin Herbert Over 35.5 pass attempts
Quentin Johnston Under 48.5 receiving yards
With their ground game in shambles, expect the Chargers offense to be extremely pass-heavy, leading to plenty of attempts and yards for Herbert. The non-correlated multiplier for backing Herbert and fading Quentin Johnston is tough to turn down at this price.
Despite Herbert throwing for 420 yards last week, Johnston had just two catches for 30 yards. Herbert targeted Johnston six times while Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen combined for 29 targets.
Johnston thrives at taking the top off the defense, but the Vikings generally do a good job at limiting deep throws, especially since their frequent blitzing forces opposing QBs to throw quick slants and shorter passes.
I'm expecting Johnston to have a relatively quiet night while stretching the field and making things easier for McConkey and Allen underneath.
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