The Minnesota Vikings will look to make it six in a row with a win over the visiting Atlanta Falcons at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 14.
Atlanta has also dropped three straight, and my Falcons vs. Vikings predictions and same-game parlay NFL picks expect Minnesota to take care of business and make it four losses in a row for Atlanta on Sunday, December 8.
Falcons vs Vikings same-game parlay for Week 14
Vikings moneyline
T.J. Hockenson Over 36.5 receiving yards
Bijan Robinson Over 61.5 rushing yards
- Vikings moneyline
- T.J. Hockenson Over 36.5 receiving yards
- Bijan Robinson Over 61.5 rushing yards
The Minnesota Vikings have won 14 of their past 20 games, and while their defense is beginning to show signs of bursting at the seams, they’ve still allowed the fifth-fewest points per game (18.3) and lowest EPA per play.
Additionally, I value the familiarity the coaching staff and defense have with Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins.
Minny blitzes at a higher clip than any team in the league (38.0%) and ranks fourth in pressure percentage (27.0%), and Cousins’ numbers take a hit when he isn’t throwing from a clean pocket. The veteran drops from 7.8 yards per attempt and a 71.9 completion percentage to respective 7.3 and 56.1% marks when pressured.
Minnesota tight end T.J. Hockenson has the highest yards per reception (11.0) and aDoT (8.3) since his rookie season, while also posting a career-high 82.1% catch rate. The sixth-year tight end is also running routes on 72% of his offensive snaps and being targeted on 24.4% of them.
So, while this doesn’t check out as a high-end matchup on the surface with the Falcons allowing a middling 7.24 yards per target and 72.0 catch percentage to opposing tight ends, my Falcons vs. Vikings predictions still expect Hockenson to have success on underneath routes against the zone-heavy Atlanta defense.
Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, the Vikings have been especially solid against the rush. They lead the NFL in PFF rush defense grade while allowing the fourth-lowest yards per carry (3.76). Still, I have confidence in the Atlanta offensive line and running back Bijan Robinson, though.
The Falcons rank sixth in PFF run blocking grade, and the second-year back has gone over this 61.5 benchmark in six of the past seven games while averaging 85.7 rushing yards per and 4.8 yards per carry.
Robinson has also played higher than a 70% snap share in four straight, and I value his high-end 3.37 yards after contact per attempt and 34.1 breakaway percentage for the campaign.
I’m expecting Atlanta to lean on the rushing attack in an effort to keep the Minnesota offense on the sidelines and shorten the game.
Not intended for use in MA.
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