With the 2021 NFL season wrapped up, front offices and fans alike are shifting focus towards the 2022 NFL Draft odds. For the second year in the row, the Jacksonville Jaguars will be the first team on the clock when the draft begins but unlike last year, there is a greater level of uncertainty surrounding who they may take with the first overall pick. The consensus across mock draft experts and sportsbook oddsmakers suggests Alabama tackle Evan Neal will be the name called, but there is reason to believe another lesser-known name will instead be the first to walk across the stage: NC State's Ikem Ekwonu.
Meeting the Jags' needs
Before we tackle (pun intended) why Ekwonu is the better value bet to go first overall, let's first deconstruct why it likely won't be a player from another position group. First off, this class is lacking truly undeniable high-end talent. Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton is widely considered the best overall talent, but he is commonly mocked in the 3-5 range, and beat reporters and fanbases of those teams (Texans, Jets, Giants) are a bit shaky at the idea of taking a safety with that high of a pick. Additionally, safety is just simply not one of the Jaguars' top needs.
So what are their needs? This part is easy, as Jaguars' general manager Trent Baalke said earlier this week that the team's top priority is to surround quarterback Trevor Lawrence with more talent, citing the need to "protect him better" and get "guys that can make explosive plays." In terms of the latter, the wide receiver class is without a generational level prospect and is a group more touted for its depth. Furthermore, the position is simply not one you traditionally use the first overall pick on, anyway. It stands to reason that the Jaguars are better off using the first overall pick on a high-end offensive lineman (a position group with not as much depth) and addressing the wide receiver spot with their second-round pick or in free agency.
Building on 2021
So, what is the case for Ekwonu? First off, there's Baalke's track record as a drafter. He has just one draft with the Jaguars under his belt, but it provides a lot of insight into what he looks for. Trevor Lawrence was the unanimous candidate to go first overall last year, so that pick can be ignored. They then took Travis Etienne 25th overall, who often drew comparisons to the likes of Alvin Kamara and was described as a "rampaging, loose-hipped runner." Eight picks later they selected cornerback Tyson Campbell at 33rd overall, a player with "undeniable physical traits and athletic tools" who "doesn't always trust his footwork and overall technique."
Notice a pattern? Baalke seemingly uses his high picks on the type of players who are praised for their physical tools and are often lacking on the technical side. When you go back to his tenure with the 49ers, the story is more or less the same. Check out the profiles of Baalke's collection of first- and second-round picks: Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati, Aldon Smith, Colin Kaepernick, LaMichael James, Eric Reid, Jimmie Ward, Arik Armstead — the list goes on. This isn't an indictment on Baalke's ability to draft (there are some great names in there), but rather a diagnosis of his tendency to prefer the flashy and toolsy types.
Neal vs. Ekwonu
Now enter Evan Neal and Ikem "Icky" Ekwonu. Neal is more often praised for his refined technique whereas Icky is sought after for his traits. Neal's NFL.com prospect profile by Lance Zierlein says, "technique has been drilled into him and Neal plays with good fundamentals across the board." Ekwonu on the other hand "has a highlight reel full of violent strikes and finishes but needs to cut his aggression with a little more control" and his "football character and urgent field demeanor make it easier to grade the traits."
And admittedly, this isn't the first time it's been suggested that Ekwonu can or will go first overall. In Mel Kiper's latest mock draft, he has Ekwonu going first overall and while he often gets panned for his overall accuracy, the fact remains that he is one of the most connected guys in the industry. Meanwhile, The Athletic's draft expert Dane Brugler also has Ekwonu going first overall. All in all, Ekwonu going first overall is backed both by the track record of the man in charge of making the pick and by the insight of a few of the most wired-in draft experts on the planet.
Ekwonu's betting value
So why back Ekwonu now? For one, Neal is not only the betting favorite to go first overall but he is also priced around -110, which suggests he is as likely to go first overall as the rest of the field. Secondly, Ekwonu to go first overall can be found in the +400 range on various books. Knowing what we know, those numbers should be much closer. Yes, the draft may not be until late April but with the NFL Combine going on as we speak, it's not unreasonable to believe that Ekwonu's stock will rise during an event that is meant to showcase physical traits.
