Bills vs Dolphins TNF Prop Bets: Eyes on the Quarterback

Prop bet #1: Josh Allen Under 33.5 pass attempts

-114 at FanDuel

The Buffalo Bills leaned on their ground game to beat the Cardinals in Week 1, which resulted in Pro Bowl quarterback Josh Allen throwing the ball just 23 times. You might see the final score and assume that was due to gamescript but Allen had a paltry four attempts in the first half when the Bills were trailing and even in neutral game situations they had a pass play rate of just 47%. 

The Bills lost their top two receivers from last season, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and replaced them with rookie Keon Coleman and the mediocre Curtis Samuel. With an underwhelming group of receivers (at least until Coleman gains experience), it stands to reason that the Bills will continue to be run-heavy moving forward.

That game plan makes plenty of sense on Thursday night against a Miami Dolphins' defense that lost its top interior lineman from a year ago and allowed the Jags to rush for 128 yards on 26 carries last week. The Bills best chance of victory comes from keeping this explosive Dolphins offense off the field and that means relying on their running attack and limiting Allen's pass attempts. 

Prop bet #2: Dalton Kincaid Over 4.5 receptions

-102 at FanDuel

Considering my bet on Josh Allen and how quiet Dalton Kincaid was last week, this play might seem counter-intuitive, but I'm expecting a bounce-back performance from Buffalo's tight end. Kincaid had just one catch for 11 yards in Week 1 but he was on the field for 88% of Buffalo's offensive snaps and had an 83% route participation rate. 

Those numbers suggest positive regression, especially against a Dolphins team that allowed opposing tight ends to snag 5.4 catches per game last year — the seventh-highest number in the league. Buffalo drafted Kincaid in the first round last season and he gained more confidence as the season wore on. He snagged 5+ receptions in nine of his last 13 games and he racked up seven catches for 84 yards against Miami in the regular season finale.

The Bills lack a true No. 1 receiver with rookie Keon Coleman posting a team-high four receptions for 51 yards last week. Dolphins shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey has been limited in practice with a hamstring strain but he played through that injury against the Jags. Expect Ramsey to suit up and cover Coleman which will will make it tough for the rookie wideout to gain separation. 

That will cause Allen to zero in on Kincaid who should eclipse his receptions total of 4.5.

Prop bet #3: Tua Tagovailoa Over 264.5 passing yards

-113 at FanDuel

Tua Tagovailoa completed 23-of-37 passes for 337 yards in last week's win against the Jaguars. Tua led the league with 4,624 passing yards last year and he generally tends to have better passing numbers at home. While it's expected to rain on Thursday, the weather is expected to clear up by game time and wind will be minimal, making conditions favorable for the Phins' QB.

Kyler Murray was limited to just 162 passing yards against Buffalo last week but he had two key drops from his receivers and didn't see a wide-open Marvin Harrison Jr. deep downfield late in the game. The Bills were 23rd in the league in coverage grade (57.8) per PFF in Week 1 which is a better indication of how poorly their secondary performed.

That defensive backfield will be even worse this week after losing their top corner, Taron Johnson to a forearm injury. That's going to make it extremely tough for the Bills to handle Miami's speedy wideouts.

Another reason to like the Over on Tagovailoa's yards is that Raheem Mostert has been ruled out for Thursday with De'Von Achane listed as questionable. With Miami's top two running backs banged up, head coach Mike McDaniel will be more likely to pass the ball.