Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones has been one of the feel-good stories of the season.
The former first-round pick is flourishing with his new team after being one of the most maligned QBs in the league, and my NFL picks for Week 6 are backing Danny Dimes to have another big game against a struggling Arizona Cardinals pass defense.
Here are my five favorite player props for Week 6 in the NFL.
NFL Week 6 prop picks
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Kyren Williams |
Over 88.5 rush + rec yards | -118 |
 Jaylen Warren |
Under 44.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Justin Herbert |
Over 254.5 passing yards | -114 |
 Ashton Jeanty |
Over 75.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Daniel Jones |
Over 254.5 passing yards | -114 |
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Week 6
Prop pick: Kyren Williams Over 88.5 rushing + receiving yards
With two starting defensive linemen on the IR and Pro Bowl middle linebacker Roquan Smith sidelined with a hamstring injury, the Baltimore Ravens are getting gashed on the ground.
They are dead-last in the league in defensive rush EPA while ranking 29th in rushing yards allowed per game (147.6). They also allow the fourth-most receiving yards per game (40.2) to opposing running backs.
Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams is coming off a season where he rushed for 1,299 yards in 16 games, adding another 182 yards through the air. Williams racked up 131 yards on 22 touches on TNF last week, which marked his third-straight game with more than 90 total yards.
In addition, backup Blake Corum might be firmly in the dog house after getting benched in Week 6 following a sloppy turnover and dropped pass. That could mean an even bigger workload than usual for Williams.
Prop pick: Jaylen Warren Under 44.5 rushing yards
Jaylen Warren sat out Week 4 with a knee injury, and now the Pittsburgh Steelers running back faces a tough matchup against the Cleveland Browns.
The Browns' stop unit is surrendering a league-low 3.0 yards per rush and ranks second in defensive rush EPA.
Warren was struggling even before the injury, rushing for 132 yards on 43 carries for just 3.1 yards per pop. In his absence in Week 4, backup Kenneth Gainwell carried the ball 19 times for 99 yards.
Although Warren is a good receiving option out of the backfield, he has always been a limited runner, and he might see fewer carries with the emergence of Gainwell.
Prop pick: Justin Herbert Over 254.5 passing yards
I backed Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert to eclipse his passing yards total last week, and he fell well short in an ugly loss to the Commanders.
The main reason he couldn’t get anything going last week was the Bolts’ banged-up offensive line, which struggled to protect him. He was pressured on 38% of his dropbacks, and a couple of his deep completions were wiped out by penalties.
Herbert is set to face a Miami Dolphins defense that doesn’t generate much pressure despite blitzing at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Herbert also ranks fourth among all quarterbacks in offensive grade (84.0) against the blitz this season.
The Dolphins have the worst crop of corners in the league, and they rank dead-last in defensive dropback success rate. The Chargers will also lean heavily on their aerial attack since starting running back Omarion Hampton and backup Najee Harris are on the IR.
Prop pick: Ashton Jeanty Over 75.5 rushing yards
Ashton Jeanty broke out with 138 yards on 21 carries in Week 4. While the highly-regarded rookie was limited to 67 rushing yards last week, that was largely game-script related since the Las Vegas Raiders were crushed 40-6 by the Colts.
Keep in mind that Jeanty was limited to 14 carries in that contest, and he was still fed the ball with five catches for 42 receiving yards. He should see a bigger workload on Sunday, with the Raiders installed as 4.5-point home faves against the 1-4 Tennessee Titans.
The Titans are 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (146.8) and 28th in yards allowed per carry (5.0).
It's worth noting that Jeanty's struggles at the start of the season were largely due to piss-poor blocking up front. The Raiders' run blocking has shown significant improvement over the last two weeks, as the return of guard Jackson Powers-Johnson has fueled a better push up the middle.
Prop pick: Daniel Jones Over 227.5 passing yards
Indianapolis Colts pivot Daniel Jones threw for 212 yards last week, but that was due to a positive game script in a blowout win. He had thrown for 228+ yards in his first four games this year, averaging 269.5 passing yards per game over that span.
This week, he faces an Arizona Cardinals defense that has been a passing funnel. They are eighth in the league in defensive rush success rate but rank 24th in defensive dropback success rate.
With Arizona likely focused on slowing down All-Pro RB Jonathan Taylor, Jones will take advantage of a secondary that allows the fifth-most passing yards per game (254.2) in the NFL.
This is a five-star play according to our Covers Player Props Projections, which are projecting 254.25 passing yards for Jones.
NFL Week 6 prop betting card
- Williams Over 88.5 rushing + receiving yards (-118)
- Warren Under 44.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Herbert Over 254.5 passing yards (-114)
- Jeanty Over 75.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Jones Over 227.5 passing yards (-114)
My NFL weekly props column is 11-9 this season for +0.88 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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