NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 14: Goff Keeps Firing Away vs Minny

Week 14 props are starting to trickle in, and getting to these numbers early is the best way to get that sweet sweet closing line value.

My prop card is being rounded out by two quarterback passing attempt Overs which I see as the two best values in that market on Sunday. One of them is due to environment and play-calling tendencies while the other is because of injuries, game script, and an overall-low number. 

With new picks coming in daily all weekend, here are my best NFL player prop picks for the upcoming action.

Latest NFL prop picks

• Goff Over 34.5 pass attempts (-104)
• Jones Over 28.5 pass attempts (-110)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Sunday

Goff the deep end

Only the Titans see more opposing pass attempts than the Vikings at 37.4 per game. When the Vikings play indoors, that number jumps to 39. Mike White and the Jets passed 58 times vs. Minnesota just last week, and with a Bottom-10 pass defense in DVOA and success rate, Jared Goff and the Lions could be pass-happy Sunday. 

Indoors this season across eight games, Goff is averaging 36.5 pass attempts and has attempted fewer than 34 passes just once. This also includes a 41-attempt game vs. the Vikings in Week 4. 

The Vikings’ secondary is also in awful shape. They lost Week 13 starter, Akayleb Evans, to a concussion, second-round rookie Andrew Booth is done for the season, eight-game starter Cameron Dantzler just came off the IR and is likely out this week, and safety Harrison Smith is dealing with an illness that has kept him limited this week at practice.  

The Detroit pass-catchers come into this game as healthy as they’ve been all season and we’re already starting to see some books move Goff’s total to 35.5. His offensive line could also be returning an important piece with G/C Evan Brown getting in limited practices this week.

With Goff being a better passer indoors and Detroit likely to attack this decimated secondary, Goff will have another high-volume passing day Sunday. 

Jared Goff Prop: Over 34.5 pass attempts (-104)

Rolling Jones

The Giants are 7.5-point home dogs this week vs. the Eagles, and with running back Saquon Barkley sub-100% and questionable, Daniel Jones could be dropping back more than usual Sunday.

Betway has his passing attempt total at 28.5, which could be the lowest we see this number this week. Jones has topped this number in five of his last six games, and with Barkley producing less recently and now questionable, this is an easy Over bet for me.

The Eagles have one of the best pass defenses in football, ranked second in DVOA, but the Giants will be forced to pass, as they’ve struggled to run the ball of late — even with a healthy Barkley, who hasn’t had a game above 4.6 yards per carry since Week 5. With the potential for a negative game script, the Giants likely won’t have many options other than pass.

The loss of defensive back Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is significant for the Eagles, as he played on every snap before hitting the IR last week. 

Jones doesn’t have the best pass-catching corps in the league, but he does have one of the lowest average depths of target per throw in football, ranking 34th among quarterbacks making at least two starts this season. The New York QB averages just 2.1 deep ball passes per game (27th) and throws plenty of short passes that will help him increase those passing attempts. He’s also very underrated with his accuracy as his 75.6% true completion percentage ranks No.2 in football, per Player Profiler.

The Giants might also have to use the passing game as an extension of the running game, which will also tack on some extra passes.

Daniel Jones Prop: Over 28.5 pass attempts (-110)

NFL prop picks for Saturday

Leaning on the run

Christian McCaffrey practiced again Thursday and looks to be in the clear for Sunday’s tilt with Tampa Bay. CMC dealt with an injury designation last week but then carried the ball 17 times, which was 66% of the team’s running back carries. With Brock Purdy lined up to start and facing a Buccaneers offense that will never force the 49ers to abandon the run, McCaffrey should have another heavy workload rushing this week.

CMC's carry total sits at 13.5, but the market is moving to the Over. The running back has topped this three times with the 49ers, but with the downgrade at quarterback, the run game will have a bigger role Sunday. Even with Jordan Mason soaking up some carries last week, McCaffrey finished with an 82% snap share, which was the highest share he’s had since coming over.

Looking at the tempo of the game, the 49ers are one of the slowest teams but facing the fastest-paced team in Tampa should help to create a few more plays for the 3.5-point favorites. Thanks to a poor Bucs offense, San Francisco should see plenty of neutral and positive game script.

The Bucs sit 21st in EPA/rush, and their 4.5 yards per carry allowed ranks 20th in football. The San Fransico O-line is at full health, while the Bucs could be missing some tacklers in the secondary with safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. and Mike Edwards both not practicing on Thursday.

Christian McCaffrey Prop: Over 13.5 rushing attempts (-115)

Wide open Davis

Making his second start back from injury, the Jets’ Corey Davis got on the right page with quarterback Mike White last week with five catches on 10 targets and 85 yards, including a long reception of 31 yards. That made up 18% of White’s 57 attempts last week and 22.3% of his air yards.

The Jets’ passing game could be busy again in Week 14 as 10-point dogs. Since White has taken over starting duties (two games), the Jets have run 145 plays with a 60% pass rate. The wind looks to be calm in Buffalo, and a little bit of snow shouldn’t affect passing conditions drastically.

Davis’ yardage total is 24 yards shorter than Garrett Wilson’s at a modest 37.5 yards. He dealt with an illness this week at practice but got in some work Thursday, which means it will be a green light for the receiver Sunday. In the seven games that he’s played around his injury, he’s averaging 62.3 yards and has topped 37 yards in six of them. Davis has also been making critical catches all season. 

92% of all catches by Corey Davis this season have either gone for a first down or a touchdown

That's the highest percentage in the NFL (min 25 receptions) pic.twitter.com/GN0vFfxUXN

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) December 7, 2022

The injuries to the Bills’ pass rush are significant, and if Matt Milano sits, it will only help New York's passing game. Milano is one of the best coverage linebackers in football and plays on all three downs. With a modest total, Davis will have plenty of looks in the passing game with Mike White slinging the ball and the Jets as double-digit dogs.

Corey Davis Prop: Over 37.5 receiving yards (-114)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Hunting for Andrews

With Lamar Jackson dealing with a knee injury, it will be Tyler Huntley’s offense on Sunday vs. the Steelers and that's actually good news for tight end Mark Andrews.

With Huntley under center, Andrews is averaging 7.8 catches for 92 yards in games in that Huntley has played at least 86% of the snaps (six games), per Kyle Dvorchak for NBC Sports Edge.

Andrews had at least 65 yards in each of Huntley’s four starts last year while the tight end also saw double-digit targets in three of those games. He also had eight catches on 15 targets for 85 yards vs. the Steelers in Week 18. 

Mark Andrews stat lines in 5 games with Tyler Huntley last year

8/73/0 on 10 targets
11/115/1 on 11 targets
10/136/2 on 13 targets
6/89/0 on 6 targets
8/85/0 on 16 targets

— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) December 7, 2022

Last week in relief, Huntley completed 27 of 32 passes vs. a very good Denver defense with Andrews seeing six of those passes (four catches) and leading the team in yards with 53 including a 22-yard catch. 

Now with an easier passing matchup vs. the Steelers (15th in pass DVOA and 22nd in EPA/dropback), the Huntley-to-Andrews connection should keep rolling in Week 14.  

Considering Andrews’ receiving total was 68.5 yards two weeks ago vs. the Jaguars, this 13-yard discount is also a big selling point. Tackle Ronnie Stanley also returned to practice this week, which boosts the Baltimore passing game.

The wind is in the single digits while some light drizzle is projected but shouldn’t affect the passing conditions greatly. 

Mark Andrews Prop: Over 55.5 receiving yards (-110)

Elementary

Heading into Week 13, Patrick Mahomes had thrown for at least 320 yards in six straight games, then the Bengals’ underrated defense held the KC quarterback to a season-low 223 passing yards. Now it’s Deshaun Watson’s turn to face the surging Bengals. 

Watson was awful in his Cleveland debut last week, finishing with a 53.4 QB rating on 12 of 22 passing for 131 yards. Only John Wolford finished with a worse QB rating than Watson last week. The Cleveland offense score zero times vs. the Texans and made just one trip into the red zone. He attempted just one pass of 20-plus yards (an incomplete) and finished with -15 expected points added despite his receivers getting great separation (2.17 yards per target).

Today was the first time Deshaun Watson led an offense that didn't score a TD in a game. His passer rating was 53.4, the lowest in a single game in his entire career.

The Texans lost, 27-14.

— Sean Pendergast (@SeanTPendergast) December 5, 2022

Watson will eventually return to form, but that’s doubtful in Week 14. The Bengals are allowing just 193 passing yards per game at home on the season and rank in the Top 10 in DVOA pass defense, EPA/dropback, and success rate vs. the pass. If they can generate some pressure, it could be a long day for the Cleveland QB, as he was bad when hurried last week, with a 33% completion rate and a pair of turnovers.

Deshaun Watson threw the football backwards after getting pressured, it was ruled a fumble on the field that was return for a touchdown to give the #Texans the lead.

Watson didn't even try to run after the ball either. Play should be reviewed.pic.twitter.com/lf2oSXRLED

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) December 4, 2022

Cleveland also ran the ball at the second-highest rate last week at 62.3% and will likely do the same if they can keep this game tight. 

There is a reason the books dropped his passing yards by 12 yards this week despite being an underdog and likely having a more negative game script this week than last week.

Deshaun Watson Prop: Under 225.5 passing yards (-110)

Os-Born again

The Vikings have played a stretch of tough passing defenses as the Bills, Cowboys, Patriots, and Jets all rank in the Top 7 in pass DVOA and Top 10 in EPA/dropback. Now with the Lions and their 30th-ranked EPA/dropback defense on deck Sunday indoors, the Minnesota passing game could go off in a game with the week’s highest total of 52. 

K.J. Osborn is not the first or second option in this offense, but when his reception total of 2.5 is paying +160 —which I'm projecting as a coin toss — I’m taking that value.

This is a player that was targeted 11 times just four games ago and is still averaging 72% of the snaps since tight end TJ Hockenson arrived in town. Osborn benefits from a coach who runs three-WR sets at one of the highest rates in football and has played on 145 of the team’s 166 dropbacks (87%) over the last four games.

In a game where Kirk Cousins has one of the highest passing totals of the week, some of the offense will filter to Osborn, who runs a lot of his routes out of the slot where Christian Kirk burned this defense last week for six catches and 100-plus yards. 

If this was +110, I’d be off, but with the +160 price implying roughly 1.85 catches, this is a great low-risk play with solid +EV. His 12% target share isn’t anything, and with the lowest average depth of target of the Minnesota wide receivers, Osborne’s targets have a high catch rate. 

K.J. Osborn Prop: Over 2.5 receptions (+160)

NFL Week 14 prop betting card

• Goff Over 34.5 pass attempts (-104)
• Jones Over 28.5 pass attempts (-110)

     - - 

• McCaffrey Over 13.5 carries (-115)
• Davis Over 37.5 receiving yards (-114)

     - - 

• Andrews Over 55.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Watson Under 225.5 passing yards (-110)
• Osborn Over 2.5 receptions (+160)

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