Two teams still in the hunt for the top seed in the NFC will face off in primetime as the Chicago Bears visit the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football.
Caleb Williams has been outstanding for Chicago over the past few weeks, and he’s among the players I’m targeting this week in my Bears vs. 49ers player props.
Let’s take a look at my NFL picks for December 28.
Bears vs 49ers SNF props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Christian McCaffrey |
Over 66.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Caleb Williams |
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns | -120 |
| DJ Moore |
Anytime touchdown | +190 |
Christian McCaffrey Over 66.5 rushing yards (-114)
While Christian McCaffrey is once again among the leaders in all-purpose yards this season, this is arguably the worst rushing season he’s had since his rookie year. While the 29-year-old has surpassed the 1,000-yard mark for the third time in four years, he’s averaging just 3.7 yards per carry on the ground, well below his career average.
Still, it’s hard to justify a rushing total this low for McCaffrey. He’s put up at least 70 yards rushing in four of his last five games for the San Francisco 49ers, and is coming off one of his best games of the year, a 117-yard performance where he averaged 5.6 yards per carry and had his longest rush of the season.
San Francisco should also find success on the ground against the Chicago Bears. While the 49ers are dead last in the NFL at 3.6 yards per rush this season, the Bears are near the bottom of the league defensively against the run, giving up an average of five yards per play on the ground.
McCaffrey figures to get plenty of usage — as usual — on Sunday, and the Bears aren’t a team that’s likely to end his recent run of strong performances. I’m taking the Over on 66.5 rushing yards.
Caleb Williams Over 1.5 touchdown passes (-120)
There was a stretch earlier this season when some fans wondered whether Caleb Williams was in for a sophomore slump, but he has put that idea to bed down the stretch.
Over the last five weeks, Williams has thrown for 10 touchdown passes against just two interceptions, and he’s been a key factor in why the Bears have been able to win seven of their last eight games.
Like many young quarterbacks, Williams doesn’t connect as much as you’d like to see, only completing 57.8% of his passes this season. But a game against the 49ers might be just what he needs to feel more comfortable in the pocket.
San Francisco is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.4% of their passes, in large part because it hasn’t gotten much pressure from their pass rush — the Niners are dead last with just 18 sacks on the season — or forced many turnovers (six interceptions on the year).
Williams has thrown for two touchdown passes in each of his last three games and has thrown a total of seven times this year. Against a 49ers defense that will let him sit back and pick his spots, I like him to find the endzone a couple times again this week.
DJ Moore anytime touchdown (+190)
While several players could be on the receiving end of Williams’ throws on Sunday, I think DJ Moore gives us the best combination of potential and value this week.
Moore leads the Bears in both receptions and yardage, and is tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns with six. He’s also doing most of his damage late in the season: he has three touchdowns in the past two weeks, and five since November 23.
Moore has played second fiddle to Rome Odunze for much of the year, but has stepped up as the clear WR1 since Odunze went down with a foot injury. Odunze will be out again against San Francisco, which means more targets and more catches for Moore.
Despite all of this, books are still offering nearly +200 on Moore to find the endzone against the 49ers. And we don’t even necessarily need him to catch a pass: he also has a touchdown on the ground and gets about one carry per game in the Chicago offense.
With multiple ways to score and standing out as the top weapon in the passing game, I’m backing Moore to score on Sunday Night Football.
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Bears vs 49ers SNF prop betting card
- Christian McCaffrey Over 66.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Caleb Williams Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120)
- DJ Moore anytime touchdown (+190)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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