It’s a first-versus-worst battle in the NFC West when the San Francisco 49ers head to the desert to play the Arizona Cardinals on Thursday Night Football.
The Niners bring a perfect 7-0 SU record into primetime, having covered the spread in five of those contests. The Cardinals, on the other hand, watched their three-game winning streak come to a halt at New Orleans in Week 8, losing 31-9 to the Saints.**video
We have our gambling game plan for the Thursday Night Football odds, from quick-hitting bets and props, to pointspread picks and Over/Under predictions.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (+10, 43)
QUICK HITTER
The 49ers don’t take long to warm up or find the scoreboard for that matter. San Francisco has scored first in five of its seven games – three TDs and two FGs – and all but one of those tallies came within the first three minutes of the first quarter.
Additionally, the first score in seven of the 49ers’ eight games – either from San Francisco or its opponent – has come no later than the 9:14 mark of the opening frame. The lone late score was a third-quarter field goal in the rain and muck at Washington in Week 7.
San Francisco is among the best first-quarter offenses in the NFL, averaging 7.4 points in the opening 15 minutes. Arizona, which has seen some lower-scoring opening frames on the season, has watched its first-quarter production tick up in recent outings. It’s averaging 6.7 points in that 15-minute span over its last three contests.
PREDICTION: First score of the game before 6:00 elapsed (-110)
FIRST HALF BET
Arizona was able to puff up its offensive numbers during a three-game winning run facing the likes of Cincinnati, Atlanta and New York. Each of those opponents allows at least 26 points per game on the year and all rank among the worst defenses in the league.
The Cardinals have struggled to make gains against proven stop units, putting up scores of 17, 20, 10 and nine points in matchups with Baltimore, Carolina, Seattle, and New Orleans respectively. In those four games, Arizona has managed just 25 total first-half points, including just one touchdown in the opening 30 minutes.
The Niners defense is the class of the NFC right now, holding foes to only 5.1 average points in the first half. San Francisco cut down the Panthers offense in the opening 30 minutes last Sunday, giving up a mere first-half field goal in the blowout win.
PREDICTION: Under 7.5 Arizona first-half team total
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
The Cardinals have been shredded by tight ends so far in 2019, giving up the most fantasy points to the position heading into Week 9. The Arizona defense has watched TEs rack up 532 yards on 45 catches and find paydirt seven times.
San Francisco Pro Bowl TE George Kittle is licking his chops looking at those numbers. Kittle, who emerged as a big-play weapon in 2018, leads the 49ers with 462 yards receiving on 40 total catches this season.
He’s posted 70 or more yards in three of his last four games, including 86 yards on six receptions in the win over Carolina last Sunday – which was also “National Tight Ends Day”. Go figure. Kittle posted totals of 57 yards on five grabs and 83 yards on five catches in two meetings with the Cardinals last season.
While he’s losing some of his red-zone pop, with only one TD behind a superior 49ers’ running game, Kittle is still Jimmy Garoppolo’s top target and will see plenty of work Thursday night.
PREDICTION: George Kittle between 6-8 receptions (+136)
TOTAL BET
The Cardinals are grasping for straws in the backfield, losing RBs Chase Edmonds, David Johnson and D.J. Foster to injuries. Arizona made a move to land former Miami RB Kenyan Drake before the trade deadline and he’ll be in uniform Thursday night.
The short week doesn’t leave much time for Drake to get up to speed with this Kliff Kingsbury playbook, which will have him, Alfred Morris and Zach Zenner as rushing options. That makes the Cardinals’ game plan very one-dimensional – not something you want against this aggressive Niners front seven.
Rookie defensive lineman Nick Bosa headlines this 49ers stop unit that has 27 sacks heading into Week 9, with 14 of those coming over the last three games. With little threat posed from the Arizona ground game and the Cardinals likely playing from behind Thursday night, expect Niners’ defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to unleash his stud rookie on fellow first-year pro Kyler Murray.
As for San Francisco’s offensive game plan, it will remain simple on this short week: running and lots of it. Arizona allowed 137 yards rushing to New Orleans, which was missing top RB Alvin Kamara in Week 8. The Cardinals give up 4.7 yards per carry to opponents and take on a 49ers side that carries the ball an average of 39 times an outing, eating up 34:31 in time of possesson.
PREDICTION: Under 43
POINTSPREAD BET
This spread opened San Francisco -8 – a dead number in terms of NFL pointspread marks. Books posted it at that safe spot, letting the early sharp opinion mold the market. Once that money flooded in on the road side, bookmakers quickly pushed the spread to San Francisco -9.5.
Now, with one-sided action on the 49ers, the bookies have added that always-important half a point and now sit with the Niners laying 10 points on the road in a short-week situation.
The 49ers proved capable of blowing away an opponent last Sunday, breaking out to a 27-5 lead over the Panthers and never looking back, en route to an easy win and cover as 6-point home chalk. But given the makeup of the 49ers’ playbook – eating up clock and dominating the ground game – it doesn’t leave much time for putting up points. And should Arizona crack this defense a time or two, San Francisco may run out of clock trying to cover the -10.
Looking closely at the vig adjustments, it would seem a move to -10.5 is possible if the public follows the sharp path and pounds the undefeated team tonight. Primetime games are known for drawing public play on the favorite, so given the current spread and potential move, we’re cautious of laying the lumber here. The 49ers will win but covering the spread is a different ask.
PREDICTION: Arizona +10
