For the second week in a row, two notable upsets defined our college football Saturday, but unlike last week, there's no need to overreact to Oregon’s or Penn State’s loss, or even Oklahoma’s, though the Sooners were actually underdogs.
The Nittany Lions’ national title hopes died a week ago when they lost to UCLA; falling to Northwestern simply provides us with the comedic fodder to launch a thousand takes. Oregon’s and Oklahoma’s greatest dreams survive. A first loss, especially to a quality opponent, does not doom you in the era of a 12-team College Football Playoff.
Before we get into some of the less notable takeaways from Week 7, let’s start with those blue bloods...
CFB Week 7 overreactions to avoid
Do not overreact to Oklahoma’s loss to Texas, no matter how bad this Sooners offense and quarterback John Mateer looked.
John Mateer may claim he had no issue with pain in his hand that was surgically repaired just 17 days ago and that it did not impact his play in Saturday’s 23-6 loss to Texas, but his 20-for-38 passing (52.6%) for 202 yards and three interceptions disagrees. Perhaps Mateer had no issue with pain, but his timing was certainly off.
That is Occam’s razor: Mateer did not get to practice for the better part of three weeks; he lost some of the groove that made him a Heisman frontrunner.
However, this was just the Oklahoma Sooners’ first loss. The Sooners’ season ends with five ranked opponents. If they go 4-1 in those games, they will still reach the Playoff. If they go 3-2, they will still have a strong argument. And Mateer’s struggles actually help that cause. It will not be hard to argue he played poorly because of the surgery, even if he's already slipped up in that messaging.
For our immediate purposes, though, Mateer is not the focus. Oklahoma’s top-tier defensive line is.
Douglas’s advice: In the winter, yours truly briefly considered South Carolina as a national title longshot. Then I recognized the turnover in the Gamecocks’ offensive line. It has indeed bothered them this season, and it will be a massive issue against the Sooners’ front. Target a South Carolina team total Under, hopefully above 18.5.
Do not overreact to Texas’ win, either. The Longhorns played well, but they were far from spectacular. Mostly, though, realize who they play next.
SEC teams know they do not need to worry about Kentucky. This Wildcats offense is so broken, every SEC team should outscore it with minimal stress, if even that much.
As long as the Texas Longhorns put 11 defenders on the field, they will hold Kentucky in check. On the other side of the ball, that will mean Steve Sarkisian does not feel a need to get creative on offense.
He would rather keep his play calling vanilla and save any gems for future games against worthwhile foes.
Douglas’s advice: It is not as simple as fading Kentucky nowadays. When Texas mails in this game, it likely will not cover the hefty spread. Focus your Wildcats doubt on things like the game Under, a team total Under, or even the thought that Kentucky will not score a single touchdown.
Don’t overreact to Oregon’s loss. No team is as good or as bad as its most recent game, something vital to keep in mind after the Ducks collapsed late against Indiana.
The Oregon Ducks lost. It is not any more complicated than that.
Everything Oregon dreams about is still in front of it. The Ducks should still reach the Playoff.
Douglas’s advice: The evolution of Rutgers continues to defy everything we ever knew about Greg Schiano. The Scarlet Knights looked to be well on their way to cashing their sixth Over in six games this season before Washington’s defense bowed up on Friday night. Despite falling short of that total of 62.5 by 5.5 points, do not doubt Rutgers now. Oregon should help run the score up. Take the Over up to a similar number as the Knights’ last week, anything short of 63.
CFB Week 7 reactions to make
Do overreact to Michigan’s defensive problems. The Wolverines are not inherently ripe to Overs, because their own offense is so dreadful, but they are too vulnerable against the pass not to be scoffed at.
The USC Trojans have one of the best passing attacks in the country, but that was hardly reason enough for quarterback Jayden Maiava to complete 25 of 32 passes (78.1%) while averaging 8.28 yards per pass attempt. He could connect with whatever receiver he wanted to all night in USC's easy 31-13 win against the Wolverines.
Now, this was expected.
Tough weekend to be a sports fan from the state of Michigan.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 12, 2025
You truly love to see it. https://t.co/RjsKpYWH7k
However, it's still a bad sign for Michigan, now abused through the air by New Mexico, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and USC. Reminder: The Wolverines close the season by hosting Ohio State in the most important game of Ryan Day’s career, no matter the national championship won last season.
Douglas’s advice: Washington entered the weekend with the No. 19 passing offense in terms of expected points added per dropback, per CFB-graphs.com. That is better than Nebraska (No. 21) and New Mexico (No. 38), and not far behind Oklahoma at No. 16. The Huskies should throw the ball with delight against the Wolverines, especially since Washington throws the ball more than 6% more often than would be expected from an average team in a given game state.
Bet Washington at +7 and sprinkle on the moneyline. This will be a rough October for any Michigan fan.
Speaking of Michigan’s regular-season finale, do overreact to Ohio State just casually moving past Illinois, another defense with passing worries.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are going to put up points on you, no matter who you are. Especially if your locker room no longer really cares. Hello, Wisconsin.
Folks, there's no coming back from this. The Wisconsin administration is going to try to find a way out, but losing 37-0 to Iowa at home is not something Luke Fickell can recover from.
That zero in the final score is not even definitive enough. The Badgers did throw a touchdown pass. Here, take a look:
AARON GRAVES INTERCEPTION OH MY.
— Bound Iowa (@Bound_IA) October 11, 2025
SOUTHEAST VALLEY LEGEND.#iahsfb
pic.twitter.com/hc6iTO031z
The coming problem for Wisconsin is that things can always get worse. Just ask Penn State. Do you really want to find out how bad things can get when Ohio State is simply choosing who scores in what order?
Penn State is gonna prove, "It can always get worse," more than anything has ever been proven.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 11, 2025
I am less certain gravity exists than I am that it can always get worse.
Douglas’s advice: Bet Ohio State to cover any spread against Wisconsin. 31 points would not be enough. And bet Ohio State to clear its team total Over; the Badgers just gave up 37 points to Iowa. Also bet Wisconsin to not score a single touchdown. The Buckeyes have a top-tier defense.
Rapid fire: More Week 8 bets to target
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Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton injured an ankle against Kansas on Saturday; Arizona State was without quarterback Sam Leavitt in a rout of a loss to Utah. The quarterback uncertainty in that game next weekend will make line movement volatile. Grab Texas Tech up to -13.5 at Arizona State. The Red Raiders’ defense is their true calling card, and backup quarterback Will Hammond has impressed in significant action, far more than can be said of Sun Devils backup quarterback Jeff Sims in any of his years of his career.
Texas Tech QB Behren Morton is slow to get up after a Kansas lineman falls on his ankle. pic.twitter.com/a953nSq3y8
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 12, 2025 - Speaking of Utah, grab the Utes at -3 in their rivalry matchup at BYU. Utah has the better lines.
- TCU will be fine. The Horned Frogs gifted Kansas State’s defense two touchdowns. That is difficult to come back from both literally and psychologically. TCU should still take care of business against Baylor. Catching that number short of -13 would be ideal.
- Temple let one get away against Navy, but it cannot be argued the Owls continue to impress in K.C. Keeler’s first season in the Philadelphia area. Heading to Charlotte will bring them more success. Bet Temple up to -15.5.
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Honestly, it feels like I forgot to automatically fade UAB at every chance available. Memphis will take delight in furthering Trent Dilfer’s miseries. Math would be fine with taking the Tigers to four touchdowns.
Striking milestone in the Trent Dilfer era at UAB: pic.twitter.com/eK3BvQ60HQ
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) October 12, 2025 - Nevada is incomprehensibly bad, shielded from more public ridicule only by the hour it often plays. New Mexico is a difficult opponent to prepare for. Take the Lobos to a full two touchdowns.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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