College football expert Jake Butt is back for Week 10 with value you can use right now.
In his conversation with Covers’ Joe Osborne, he digs into his best NCAAF picks, weighs in on the real reason Brian Kelly was kicked to the curb, and explains why Michigan's playoff hopes are still very much alive.
Rutgers vs 
Illinois best bet
Pick: Rutgers +12.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Jake believes Rutgers vs. Illinois has the feel of a classic letdown game.
"Illinois came off a 10-win season last year and they returned the most experience in the Big Ten, with a great quarterback all their their coordinators, and their head coach," he says. "This was supposed to be the year for Illinois to take that leap. They were the the the media darling to make the playoffs. Well, then they lose to Ohio State and then they lose to Washington and they have three losses on the year, so they're eliminated now from playoff contention."
The lack of motivation isn't the only thing working against the Illini. Jake also doesn't trust the team's defense.
"I called the Washington vs. Illinois game last week and it was one of the worst defensive performances I've seen all year," he says. "Illinois' defense, and in particular their secondary, has been extremely vulnerable. Rutgers has a dominant passing game with Athan Kaliakmanis and Ian Strong and KJ Duff and DT Sheffield, so I think Rutgers is going to be able to score points in line with Illinois and I'm I'm concerned about Illinois' mindset right now coming off a devastating season-ending loss in terms of what their ultimate goals were."
Read our full Rutgers vs. Illinois predictions ahead of game time.
Breaking down the Brian Kelly fiasco
There's been no shortage of opinions about why Brian Kelly was run out of Baton Rouge, but Jake believes he has the definitive answer.
"He's a complete asshole," he says. "He has decades of history of treating people horribly, and I find it very interesting that now that this news is official everybody is coming out of the woodworks with their stories, talking about how poorly they were treated by Brian Kelly. Here's the thing; you could get away with that back in the day during the Bobby Knight days, and I've had coaches that were a-holes, but I need to know that you care about me as a person, as a player, then I can handle you being an asshole. Then I at least know you're being an asshole because you believe in my potential and our incentives are aligned. It just seems like Brian Kelly didn't care about his players, didn't care about his staff, didn't really care about anyone but himself."
In addition to his horrendous attitude, Jake believes Kelly made a critical error when he fired the team's strength and conditioning coach, Tommy Moffitt.
"That position is the lifeblood of college organizations," he says. "That is effectively your offseason head coach. This guy was beloved down there, and Kelly fires him and brings in his own guy. He really just cut ties with everybody that knew that organization inside and out."
Kelly also ruffled feathers by failing to recruit in his own backyard.
"You have to recruit Louisiana," Jake says. "That is a hotbed of high school talent, and Brian Kelly was just sitting on a beach in the offseason asking others to do the work for him. If you don't have a team culture, you don't have unity, and that's the difference between winning and losing in these big games."
Michigan is in the mix
The 6-2 Wolverines need a lot of things to work in their favor to compete for a national championship, but Jake believes his alma mater is still in the conversation.
"They need breaks, but it's all within their control because I believe if they run the table, that would include beating Ohio State, they would then be 10-2," he explains. "That would also mean Ohio State has one conference loss and you start to get into some of the tiebreakers. Michigan would then have a pretty high chance of going to the Big 10 Championship, so either way you spin it they'd be a playoff team if they run the table."
Michigan will host Ohio State at "The Big House" on November 29, which Jake sees as another huge advantage.
"What I've seen watching Michigan this year with an 18-year-old true freshman quarterback in Bryce Underwood is a completely different playbook for what they call when Michigan is on the road starting Bryce Underwood and when Michigan is at home starting Bryce Underwood," he says. "They get to play Ohio State at home where they have the ability to communicate coach to quarterback, quarterback to huddle, and quarterback to offense as a whole."
Jake hopes that Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore won't overplay his hand before the Wolverines and Buckeyes clash in the final regular season game of the season.
"He knows they can run the ball and sleepwalk to victory and enter that Ohio State game at 9-2, so why reveal all the passes that we know our young quarterback's comfortable in," he says. "Let's save that part of the playbook for the Ohio State game. What I would like to see is everybody calm down a little bit and do not be deceived if Michigan plays conservative football leading into the Ohio State game. That doesn't mean that we sell all Michigan stocks. What we're all hopeful it means is that they're holding some things back to then unload the clip against the Buckeyes."
