Bowl season is here, and there are plenty of great college football matchups to tide fans over until the new year. One of the headlining games of the first few bowl matchups is the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl, aptly featuring two good West Coast football teams.
The Washington Cougars (7-5) had a successful first season in Jake Dickert’s first full season as head coach, and they’ll look to end on a high note with a bowl victory.
The Mountain West champion Fresno State Bulldogs (9-4) will look to keep their winning ways alive in search of their ninth-straight win today. Can they do that in the LA Bowl?
Check out our college football betting picks and predictions for Washington State vs. Fresno State on Saturday, December 17, to find out.
Washington State vs Fresno State best odds
Washington State vs Fresno State picks and predictions
Jake Dickert’s first season as the full-time head coach in Pullman went pretty well, all things considered. The offense never fully clicked as expected under Incarnate Word transfer quarterback Cameron Ward and new offensive coordinator Eric Morris, but the defense held up its end of the bargain by allowing just 22.4 points per game en route to seven wins and a bowl appearance.
Fresno State was the preseason favorite in the Mountain West but came out of the gates limping, mustering a 1-4 record to start the season which included an embarrassing loss at the hands of UConn. Fast forward two months, and the Bulldogs are Mountain West Champions after rattling off eight straight wins to close the season.
Factoring in the transfer portal and opt-outs is always important during bowl season, as rosters are often completely remade for the bowl game. Washington State will be shorthanded in this matchup, which is certainly a reason why the Cougars swung from -2.5 at open to +3. Let’s go over some of those departures.
The receiving corp will be decimated as lead receiver De’Zhaun Stribling (51 receptions, 602 yards, five touchdowns) and Donovan Ollie (491 yards, three TDs) entered the transfer portal and Renard Bell’s college career is over due to injury.
For a team that runs a modified Air Raid nicknamed the “Coug Raid”, being without three of your top receiving options is certainly not ideal. Despite having a down season relative to expectations, Stribling is was one of the most talented young receivers in the Pac-12 and his loss will be especially missed. Expect Incarnate Word transfer Robert Ferrel to lead a thin receiving room that will play a lot of young, unproven names in this one.
The Cougars will also be shorthanded defensively, as All-Pac-12 linebacker Daiyan Henley will sit out to prepare for the NFL Draft. He’s the star of this defense and a big reason why the Cougars excelled on that side of the ball, so his loss will be a significant impact.
Middle linebackers Francisco Mauigoa and Travion Brown, who combined for 109 tackles and 10.5 tackles for loss, will also be absent for this matchup. Defensive coordinator Brian Ward departed for the same role at Arizona State, meaning Dickert will fill in for the bowl.
Washington State will be very shorthanded for this matchup, whereas Fresno State will be close to full strength. The Bulldogs are riding high on a huge winning streak and have plenty of talent to take home the win. Give me the Bulldogs.
My best bet: Fresno State -3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Washington State vs Fresno State spread analysis
Fresno State moved to a -3 favorite at all locations at the time of this initial writing. Considering the juice has moved to -115 at some spots, it’s not surprising that this one continued to rise to -3.5 at most books.
Star quarterback Jake Haener — a Fresno State legend — confirmed his status for the bowl game. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the Group of 5 and frankly a well-above-average signal caller in the college football world. Haener missed a few games with a broken bone in his foot earlier this season and therefore doesn’t qualify on some leaderboards, but he would lead the country in completion percentage (72.6%) if he did.
Fresno will be relatively full go for the LA Bowl, as the only significant departures as of the time of this writing are defensive back Cale Sanders (32 tackles, six passes defended), receiver Josh Kelly (207 yards, zero touchdowns), and offensive line coach Saga Tuitele.
Fresno State is a battle-tested team that typically schedules difficult games in the non-conference. The Bulldogs narrowly fell 35-32 to Oregon State in a game in which they won the yardage battle 492 to 397, but still came out on the losing end. Haener would be injured the next week against USC, and a few ugly losses ensued.
They’ve since righted the ship, however, winning eight straight games including a 28-16 thumping of Boise State in the conference championship game. That was a very impressive performance in which Fresno State led 28-9 until a garbage time touchdown from the Broncos, especially impressive considering Boise had won eight of nine games entering that contest.
Washington State vs Fresno State Over/Under analysis
Despite the opt outs and transfer portal news, the total hasn’t moved much at all. Since opening at 54, the total has moved just half a point to 54.5..
Washington State’s solid defense paved the way to a 9-3 mark to the Under this season. The offense never clicked, ranking 78th in yards per game (375.6) while checking in at 81st in EPA (Expected Points Added, garbage time excluded) per play.
The defense was solid in a significant improvement thanks primarily to Dickert’s defense-first ethos, ranking 48th in EPA per play. The Cougars are especially stout up front, ranking 29th in Line Yards, 23rd in Stuff Rate, and 26th in Havoc.
The battle in the trenches will be an interesting one to watch. Fresno State ranked just 96th in Line Yards but was solid in other statistical categories up front, checking in at 11th in Havoc and 27th in Stuff Rate. Haener should be able to find the end zone a few times against a good, but not great, Cougars' defense that will be shorthanded. The Bulldogs are solid defensively, ranking 31st in Success Rate.
The Under is the play for me. Washington State will be shorthanded offensively and that should hamper its ability to score points in what is not an easy matchup. The Cougars’ defense is good enough to limit Haener and company from running wild.
In-play microbetting trends for Washington State vs Fresno State
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Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market:
Washington State
Offensive score Yes: 14/35 (40%)
Offensive score No: 21/35 (60%)
Punts: 13/35 (37.1%)
TDs: 9/35 (25.7%)
FG attempts: 6/35 (17.1%)
TOs: 7/35 (20%)
Washington State had one drive that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.
Fresno State
Offensive score Yes: 13/23 (56.5%)
Offensive score No: 10/23 (43.5%)
Punts: 7/23 (30.4%)
TDs: 7/23 (30.4% FG attempts: 6/23 (26.1%)
TOs: 3/23 (13%)
Fresno State had one drive that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.
Washington State vs Fresno State betting trend to know
Fresno State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against the Pac-12. Find more NCAA betting trends for Washington State vs. Fresno State.
Washington State vs Fresno State game info
| Location: | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, December 17, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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