Utah State vs Hawaii Odds, Picks and Predictions: Points Few and Far Between

Neither Utah State nor Hawaii has had much success on offense this season, with the two squads averaging fewer than 40 combined points. It may be a sweat, but the Under is the best play on the board to close out Saturday night's action.

JD Yonke - Contributor at Covers.com
JD Yonke • Contributor
Nov 12, 2022 • 08:06 ET • 4 min read
Timmy Chang Hawaii Rainbow Warriors MWC college football
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

There’s a late-night game to look forward to in Week 11 as Utah State and Hawaii kick off at 11:00 p.m. ET to conclude Saturday’s college football action.

Utah State has faltered in 2022 despite winning its first-ever Mountain West Championship a year ago. The Aggies will look to avoid missing a bowl game by notching two more victories. 

Hawaii is looking for its first win over Utah State since 2010. It’s been a trying season in Year 1 under Timmy Chang but can the Rainbow Warriors finish the season on a high note?

Read our college football picks and predictions for Utah State vs. Hawaii below to find out. 

Utah State vs Hawaii best odds

Utah State vs Hawaii picks and predictions

Rooting for an Under is rarely the most fun way to bet — especially late at night — but oftentimes, it’s the smartest way.

After losing a number of key pieces, the Utah State Aggies were expected to take a step back in 2022 after winning the Mountain West Conference a year ago. Still, the drop-off has been quite drastic — the Aggies are just 4-5 overall and 3-6 ATS, with two more wins needed to reach a bowl game. 

Hawaii has struggled mightily in Year 1 under Timmy Chang, but that was to be expected after a tumultuous offseason in which the Rainbow Warriors lost their coach, star offensive players, and basically half the roster in a period of upheaval.

This was supposed to be a rebuilding process under Timmy Chang, and that’s just what it looked like. Hawaii is 2-8 overall but 6-4 ATS, showing signs of life lately with three one-score losses and a victory in a four-game stretch before last week’s demolition at the hands of a vastly superior Fresno State squad. 

It’s safe to say that neither team has found much success in general in 2022. Utah State’s offense has cratered this season, averaging just 20 points per game and 4.7 yards per play. The Aggies rank 121st in EPA (expected points added), 113th in success rate, and 120th in explosiveness.

They’ve failed to exceed 27 points in any of their last three games and despite the return of quarterback Cooper Legas a week ago, managed just 3.8 yards per play against a poor New Mexico team. Hawaii has been a turnstile defensively, allowing 35.8 points per game, but I question Utah State’s ability to light up the scoreboard in any matchup at this point.

Hawaii has been even worse offensively than Utah State, scoring just 17.8 points per game despite facing a very soft schedule. The Rainbow Warriors rank 118th in EPA, 89th in success rate, and 116th in explosiveness.

Timmy Chang was expected to bring Air Raid and Run and Shoot principles to this offense, but this team has yet to establish an identity and is still searching for an offensive philosophy as the season nears its conclusion. 

Utah State’s defense should be the best unit on the field Saturday, as the Aggies rank 56th in EPA and 40th in success rate. To make matters worse for the Rainbow Warriors, star running back Dedrick Parson left last week due to injury and is questionable for this contest. He leads the team with 10 touchdowns while no other skill position player has more than three on the year, so his loss would be significant. 

Weather is also expected to be a factor on the island, as winds of up to 20 mph are expected at game time. Give me the Under as the best bet for Week 11’s nightcap.

My best bet: Under 52.5 (-110 at bet365)

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Utah State vs Hawaii spread analysis

The spread is set anywhere between Utah State –10.5 and -11.5, depending on the book, at the time of this writing.

I understand that Hawaii has put a woeful product on the field this season, as I’ve personally picked against them multiple times while being especially critical of the defense. Still, I won’t let that cloud my judgment in this spot. There is no way that I can recommend laying over 10 points with a struggling Utah State team on the road in inclement weather. 

The Aggies have fallen mightily after last year’s feel-good season, and the AD recently stepped down while this program has been in the news more for off-the-field concerns than anything having to do with their on-field performance.

They’ve been favored in four games this season, going 1-3 ATS. The lone cover came last week against New Mexico when the Aggies trailed 10-7 at halftime before finding a miraculous backdoor cover highlighted by a fake field goal touchdown and a 55-yard fumble recovery for a score with three minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. 

Hawaii is 4-1 ATS in its last five games, finding a groove as the season has gone along. The Rainbow Warriors are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a losing record, which will be the case Saturday night against a bad Utah State team. Hawaii has also been a profitable bet in MWC play, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games. 

Utah State vs Hawaii Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 54.5 but quickly moved down to 52.5 as the betting market is seeing what I’m seeing in a game between two poor offenses with winds of up to 20 mph in the forecast.

Both teams have been profitable to the Under this season, as Utah State is 7-2 while Hawaii is 7-3. That should come as no surprise considering these teams are combining to average just 37.8 points per game. 

Utah State has struggled to throw the ball, and that’s a problem in Blake Anderson’s air-it-out approach. Star quarterback Logan Bonner played in four games despite looking far less than 100% in his return from a knee injury, and he has since been announced out for the season.

Cooper Legas has averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt while tossing six touchdowns against five interceptions in his stead. The Aggies rank 121st in passing EPA and struggle both to move the chains (113th in passing success rate) and find any big plays (112th in passing explosiveness). A ground game averaging just 3.9 yards per carry has been little help.

Hawaii at least has a strength offensively, and that lies in a veteran offensive line that ranks 15th in line yards and 16th in stuff rate. The Rainbow Warriors remarkably rank 18th in rushing success rate despite playing from behind in the majority of their games.

Utah State has a solid front seven and ranks 14th in stuff rate, so the battle in the trenches is truly the matchup to watch in this game. Still, Hawaii struggles to do anything else well offensively (127th in passing EPA) and the Aggies have been solid defensively, so an offensive explosion would be a surprise. 

Utah State vs Hawaii betting trend to know

The Under is 6-0 in Utah State’s last six games against a team with a losing record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Utah State vs. Hawaii.

Utah State vs Hawaii game info

Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI
Date: Saturday, November 12, 2022
Kickoff: 11:00 p.m. ET
TV: Spectrum Sports

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