USC vs Stanford Odds, Picks and Predictions: Trojans Continue Fireworks Show

This article covers a past game! See our Stanford vs USC prediction for the upcoming game on September 9, 2023.

The Lincoln Riley era got off to a sunny start in Southern California as the Trojans soundly defeated the Rice Owls 66-14.

Riley hopes to shake up the power in the Pac-12 immediately, and his first shot at a conference game comes in Week 2 against the Stanford Cardinal.

Stanford (1-0) defeated lowly Colgate in the opener, but still has a lot to prove after dropping to a 3-9 record a year ago.

Will Riley move to 2-0, or will David Shaw & Co. have some tricks up their sleeves?

Check out our college football picks and predictions for USC vs. Stanford on Saturday, September 10 to find out.

USC vs Stanford best odds

USC vs Stanford picks and predictions

Lincoln Riley shifted the balance of power when he announced he would be relocating to Southern California. For a conference that has been as down as the Pac-12 has over the last few years, Riley is a proven commodity in college football who has coached teams to the playoffs and is supposed to help lead the Trojans back to glory. 

This USC offense is nothing to laugh at. Star quarterback Caleb Williams followed Riley from Oklahoma along with starting receiver Mario Williams and combined with Pittsburgh transfer Jordan Addison to give this unit plenty of star power. The sheer level of talent was on display in the opener when the Trojans went for 538 total yards against Rice en route to scoring 66 points. Williams completed 19 of 22 passes for 249 yards and two touchdowns, both of which went to Addison. 

The Cardinal are far from the program they were under Jim Harbaugh and in the early days of David Shaw. Once a fearsome defensive team, the Cardinal ranked 106th in total defense a year ago. They allowed over 42 points five separate times last season while allowing at least 34 points three more times, surrendering 453.2 total yards per game.

USC should be able to move the ball both through the air and on the ground. Oregon transfer Travis Dye accumulated 1,673 yards from scrimmage and 18 total touchdowns a year ago and figures to lead a loaded backfield that also includes former Cardinal Austin Jones. Five-star true freshman Raleek Brown looked like an immediate impact player in the opener, touching the ball eight times and resulting in 76 total yards and a touchdown. With weapons like Tahj Washington, Gary Bryant Jr., Brenden Rice, and Kyle Ford also in the fold, Stanford simply doesn’t have the talent or the depth to match them player for player. 

The Trojans’ primary concern this season resides on the defense side of the ball, so I’m anticipating plenty of shootouts this year. Stanford returns nearly everything offensively, ranking second nationally in offensive returning production, so they should add a few scores and force the Trojans to keep the pedal on the medal. I’m playing USC’s team total Over 37.5 in Week 2.

My best bet: USC team total Over 37.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

USC vs Stanford betting preview

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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Spread analysis

Stanford is one of the most experienced teams in the country, ranking third in ESPN analyst Bill Connelly’s returning production metrics. It’s hard to feel too confident about that considering the Cardinal were awful in 2021, getting outgained by over 150 yards per game. They were very bad on both sides of the ball, which is extremely concerning for a program that recruits well for Pac-12 standards.

Stanford did have a bad run of health and was notably thin at the wide receiver and quarterback position at points last season, which certainly hurt them a year ago. Tanner McKee is getting some buzz as a darkhorse NFL Draft selection at quarterback this season, and he has plenty of receiving talent in Elijah Higgins, John Humphreys, Michael Wilson, Brycen Tremayne, and tight end Benjamin Yurosek at his disposal. 

That being said, all that returning production and talent is still a far cry from what USC has assembled. Stanford has fallen very far and very fast as a program lately, and it’s on it to prove that it’s a different team in 2022.

Stanford is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games and 0-6 ATS in its last six conference games. This is a very difficult matchup against a vastly improved Trojans squad.

Over/Under analysis

Sheesh, that’s a high total! The Over/Under for this one is currently set between 66.5 and 67.5 depending on the book — but is it warranted?

I’ve already outlined in detail why USC’s offense will put on plenty of fireworks this season, led by one of the top quarterbacks in the country in Caleb Williams, so let’s look at Stanford and see if the Cardinal can keep Pace. 

Stanford had an impressive offensive showing of their own in a 41-10 win over Colgate, accumulating 497 total yards of offense. It's fair to question whether that will be sustainable after the team averaged only 302.4 total yards per game a year ago while averaging just 20.4 points per game.

Improvement should be expected with a healthy McKee throwing the ball to a very underrated receiving room featuring four impressive weapons. Benjamin Yurosek is one of the best tight ends in the country and had 658 yards and three scores a year ago, so he could prove to be a mismatch problem in this one. Running back EJ Smith is running in front of an offensive line that returns all five starters. USC struggled mightily on defense a year ago (31.8 points per game allowed) and that side of the ball is still a question mark in 2022.

The total may seem high at first considering Stanford rarely looks to push the tempo, but it’d be a surprise if both teams don’t put points on the scoreboard.

USC vs Stanford game info

• Location: Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA
• Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022
• Kick-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

USC vs Stanford key injuries

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USC vs Stanford weather

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USC vs Stanford betting trend to know

The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these schools. Find more NCAA betting trends for USC vs. Stanford.

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