There’s a massive game in the Big Ten in Week 13 as the two-loss No. 16 USC Trojans visit the one-loss No. 6 Oregon Ducks.
There are massive CFP implications on the line as the winner will be sitting pretty for a bid, while the loser will likely be moved to the outside looking in.
See which stances I’m taking against the spread and total in my full USC vs. Oregon predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 22.
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USC vs Oregon predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early USC vs Oregon spread pick: USC +9.5
The Oregon Ducks are the deserved favorite — possessing the better record and the better metrics — and they’ll be within their home confines of Autzen Stadium. That being said, the wide line of 9.5 points isn’t justified, so I’m snapping up the points with the visitor.
The USC Trojans possess a vintage Lincoln Riley offense this year, scoring 38.2 ppg on an efficient 7.4 yards per play. They check in at second in both EPA per play and success rate, so this will be the most prolific offense the Ducks have seen all year — including Indiana.
Much has been made of USC’s struggles on the road since moving to the Big Ten. The Trojans are 2-2 as the away team this year, beating Purdue and Nebraska while falling to Illinois and Notre Dame.
The margin in South Bend was 10 points despite USC losing the turnover battle by two, and that’s a similar caliber of opponent to Oregon.
A team with USC’s offensive firepower is always live for a backdoor cover, even if things do get out of hand early. Look for Jayden Maiava, Makai Lemon, and Ja’Kobi Lane to stay within this number.
Early USC vs Oregon total pick: Under 59.5
Gone are the Chip Kelly days when Oregon would push the tempo with reckless abandon, running as many plays as possible and posting video game numbers offensively. This Dan Lanning squad plays at a methodical pace, runs the ball well, and relies on its stout defense.
The Ducks have a talented secondary ranked within the Top 10 in EPA per pass allowed. While they likely won’t completely shut down Maiava and Lemon, they can at least slow them down from a monster performance.
When Oregon has the ball, there should be plenty of ground and pound. The Ducks lead the nation in EPA per rush and should find plenty of room to work against USC’s faulty run defense (126th in rushing success rate allowed). This will keep the clock ticking throughout the contest as Oregon moves the chains consistently.
Despite its offense-first reputation, USC has cashed the Under in four of its last five games. Riley’s teams also tend to get into lower-scoring games on the road, going 1-5 O/U in the last five road trips.
Oregon has scored 21 points or fewer in two of its last three, whereas USC has held each of its last three opponents to 21 or fewer.
USC vs Oregon odds
- USC vs. Oregon spread: Oregon -9.5
- USC vs. Oregon moneyline: USC +280, Oregon -360
- USC vs. Oregon Over/Under: 59.5
How to watch USC vs Oregon
- USC vs. Oregon matchup
- Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- City: Eugene, OR
- Venue: Autzen Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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