The final week of the college football regular season is upon us, and it’s time for rivalries to take center stage. Those rivalries can often lead to surprise results and upset victories.
Our college football picks and underdog predictions for the Week 14 slate key on three games where there’s no love lost between the opponents. Here are our top upset picks for Saturday’s slate.
CFB Week 14 upset picks
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Kentucky moneyline
Houston moneyline
Arkansas moneyline
Kentucky moneyline
The Kentucky Wildcats have struggled mightily against teams with good quarterbacks. But this isn’t going to be one of those games.
The Louisville Cardinals rank 85th in EPA/dropback, and don’t put together many quality drives. And the ones they do get often don’t result in points. That’s due to poor offensive line play, iffy quarterback play, and ill-timed mistakes — the Cardinals rank 95th in penalty yards per game.
Isaac Brown and a strong defense papered over those cracks for a good part of the season. But Brown is done for the year, and he’s not alone on the injury list.
Jeff Brohm announced that Chris Bell, who ranks 12th in the country in receiving yards, will also be out. Fellow back Keyjuan Brown is out as well, and both quarterback Miller Moss and receiver Caullin Lacy are doubts.
The UofL defense is tiring and has injuries as well, and Kentucky actually has the better quarterback. Cutter Boley has improved as the season’s gone along, and the Wildcats may be getting multiple key players back on the defensive side of the ball.
The Wildcats have a Top 25 run defense, and the offense ranks 44th in points per quality drive. While the Cardinals have done decently against the run, they have one of the highest missed-tackle rates in college football. That sets Kentucky up to do what Mark Stoops loves most — grind out drives on offense and wind down the clock.
Kentucky must win this game to get to a bowl, and Louisville is reeling after going from being in the driver’s seat for the ACC to losing three straight. I’ll take the more motivated team getting plus-odds in a rivalry game as the Wildcats win the Governor’s Cup.
Houston moneyline
It’s been difficult for the oddsmakers to figure out this Baylor Bears team. They’ve gone just 2-9 ATS this season, and have won just one of five games while favored this season.
Granted, that lone victory came in a 30-3 thrashing of UCF where they were favored by just three points. But UCF has been terrible down the stretch and the Bears turned it over just once in that game.
That was an anomaly. Baylor averages two turnovers a game and ranks 132nd in turnover margin. Those turnovers have cost the Bears multiple games, and will play a key role in the Houston Cougars getting an upset on Saturday.
The turnovers have killed the scoring chances for the Bears, who rank eighth in quality drive rate but just 82nd in points per quality drive. That will be problematic against a Houston team that likes to control the game, ranking 26th in run rate and 39th in time of possession.
Baylor’s defense ranks 95th in EPA/rush and 108th in success rate against the run. The Bears also sit 104th in available yard rate allowed, and 128th in rushing line yards given up per carry.
Conner Weigman will make plenty of plays against this poor Baylor defense, while the Bears will cough up the ball against a Houston secondary that ranks 44th in interception rate. Houston has the better defense and an offense that takes care of the football, and that will be the difference.
Arkansas moneyline
I’ve picked the Arkansas Razorbacks to get an upset win a few times this season, and every time they’ve failed in heartbreaking fashion. The latest was a 1-point loss to LSU where they had two empty red zone possessions after having just two such failures all season prior.
But despite the Hogs losing nine straight, and despite them not having an SEC win in 10 tries, I’m going to the well one more time as they take on the Missouri Tigers, who have lost three of their last four and just dropped a physical battle last week with Oklahoma.
Beau Pribula isn’t at full strength, and it showed last week against the Sooners.
Yes, the Tigers have a terrific defense that should be able to get some stops against the explosive Arkansas offense, at least on paper. But their passing attack has sputtered down the stretch, as they rank 72nd in EPA/pass.
And I’m not sure Missouri’s defense has faced an offense as explosive as this one.
The Hogs rank 18th in EPA/rush and 14th in success rate, and can put up points on a Missouri defense that ranks middle of the pack in PPQD. The Tigers also rank 68th in line yards allowed per carry, and have been hurt at times by scrambling quarterbacks.
Despite all their failures, the Razorbacks haven’t quit. This team badly wants a win and has had a lot of luck go against them this season with five of their last eight defeats coming by a field goal or less.
This may be Bobby Petrino’s last game at the helm, and these Arkansas players seem to enjoy playing for him. This is the game where they finally get over the hump and go out on a high note as they win the Battle Line Rivalry.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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