Last week was a painful one for our college football underdog picks, as Purdue gave their game away late before Mississippi State cost us a big win with a late implosion.
But we run it back this week with three games, all in the 12:00 p.m. ET time slot, where we’ve found excellent value for potential upsets. Here are our college football picks for plus-odds moneyline winners in Week 10!
CFB Week 10 upset picks
Vanderbilt moneyline
Navy moneyline
Duke moneylineVanderbilt moneyline
I’m still upset about what the Mississippi State Bulldogs did to us last week. We had the upset win in our hands, and then they committed one of the most impactful penalties of the betting season—a roughing the passer call on Arch Manning on an incomplete pass on fourth down.
From there, the Texas Longhorns overcame a 17-point hole and escaped with the win in overtime. Manning would leave the game late with a concussion, and all signs point to him returning against the Vanderbilt Commodores.
But does that help the chances of winning for the Longhorns, or hurt them? He struggled against Kentucky, and until the Bulldogs let a man get wide open behind their defense early in the fourth quarter, he had led seven straight drives that netted 94 yards and zero points. Keep in mind, those two teams haven’t won SEC home games in over two years.
Additionally, the Texas defense looked tired last week. The Longhorns are back home after four games away from Austin, but they’re waiting for a needed bye. Diego Pavia will be one of the better quarterbacks they face this season, and he found a way to get a win at Missouri despite a poor offensive showing.
The Commodores rank Top 10 in net success rate, with a defense that ranks 16th in EPA/rush. Texas is struggling to run the ball consistently, and nothing Arch has shown makes me think he will hurt Vanderbilt’s iffy pass stoppers.
Clark Lea can continue to play the disrespect card with his team, and he’s covered in five of six road conference games since the start of last season. Give me plus-odds on the team that is more consistent with the much better offense led by the superior quarterback.
Navy moneyline
North Texas has an unbelievable offense, and the Mean Green are favored for a reason. But favored by 6.5 points?! Nah, that’s too much. I’m not passing up this value.
If you’re giving me odds of nearly +200 for the Navy Midshipmen facing a run defense ranked 121st in rushing success rate and 80th in EPA/rush, then I’m going to take it. Especially when the Mean Green are also allowing teams to convert on late downs at a clip of over 48% while ranking 115th in average third-down distance to go.
The Midshipmen lead the nation in rushing success rate, and are second in EPA/rush. In addition, North Texas is seeing opponents ranking third nationally in run rate over expected.
Navy ranks fifth in RROE at 20.4% and one of the best ways to pull off an upset—especially on the road—is to control the clock and shorten the game. USF went into North Texas and ran for 306 yards on 57 carries, and scored 63 points despite turning it over on three of the first four drives.
Army wore North Texas down in the second half of their matchup in September, with the Black Knights scoring three touchdowns and a game-tying field goal on five possessions. Navy will do the same, and will be in position at the end to get a win.
Duke moneyline
Yet again, I’m left scratching my head as to why the Clemson Tigers are favored. Especially against an offense as good as what the Duke Blue Devils have.
The Tigers don’t force turnovers on defense, with just two interceptions in ACC play despite facing over 36 pass attempts on average through five games. And of their 12 sacks, nine came against Boston College and Syracuse.
While their defensive metrics look decent, playing those two teams and North Carolina have helped quite a bit. But before the bye week, Kevin Jennings threw for 290 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Haynes King threw for 211 and ran for 103 in Georgia Tech’s upset win.
Duke ranks sixth in quality drive rate, and the man taking the snaps is a key reason why. Darian Mensah has looked outstanding this season, and hasn’t thrown an interception in four games.
He’s posted a passing accuracy rate over 72% in three consecutive conference games. The Blue Devils also come in off a bye week after losing to Georgia Tech, so they’ve had time to prepare.
Cade Klubnik will return after recovering from his sprained ankle, and Duke’s pass defense isn’t great. But neither is Klubnik, and in a competitive game, I know which one of these quarterbacks I’d much rather put my faith in.
There’s a reason the Tigers rank 86th in quality drive rate this year, and Clemson’s rushing attack has done little to help him.
I’ve picked against Clemson twice this season as an upset pick, and both Georgia Tech and SMU came through. Let’s go for the hat trick as we back the Blue Devils to stay in the ACC title hunt.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
