First place in the American Athletic Conference will be at stake when Central Florida and Tulane meet on Saturday in New Orleans.
The Knights are a slight underdog but this should be a close game and the moneyline might be the play.
Will Tulane keep an unblemished mark in conference play or will UCF get the road victory and climb to the top of the standings by virtue of the tiebreaker? Continue reading for free college football picks for UCF vs. Tulane on November 12.
UCF vs Tulane best odds
UCF vs Tulane picks and predictions
This game is one of the closest contests of the year for handicapping as both the UCF Knights and the Tulane Green Wave are neck-and-neck statistically.
For example, UCF leads the conference in offense, averaging 501 yards per game. Meanwhile, Tulane is first in defense, limiting opponents to an average of 307.3 yards per game. UCF is No. 3 in defense, allowing an average of 362.1 yards per game.
In terms of scoring defense, Tulane is first, limiting opponents to an average of 16.9 points per game. UCF is second at 18.8.
UCF does have the edge on offense, averaging 35.7 points per game, compared to Tulane at 32.9.
One big area of concern for the Knights is quarterback John Rhys Plumlee. The senior suffered a concussion two weeks ago against Cincinnati and hasn’t played since. He is a game-time decision, according to UCF Coach Gus Malzahn. If he can’t go, then Malzahn will have Mikey Keene start.
Keene is not much of a downgrade. He took over when Plumlee got knocked out of the Cincinnati game and led the team to an upset victory. Last week, Keene was 22 of 28 passing with three touchdowns in the team’s 35-28 win over Memphis.
Whoever starts for the Knights will go against a Tulane secondary that has been inconsistent to say the least. It started the season off strong and at one point was No. 16 in the country in passing yards allowed.
It has slipped as of late, however. The Green Wave still rank in the Top 20, but their passing defense average has gone up to 251.3 a game.
If Keene or Plumee can limit their mistakes, they should be able to take advantage of Tulane's shaky secondary.
With this game projected to be as close as it is — and my belief that UCF will prevail — I am going to go with the Knights moneyline for better odds. I’m only getting 1.5 points with the Knights at -110. I would rather get +105 and take them straight up against Tulane in a close one on Saturday.
My best bet: UCF moneyline (+105 at Caesars)
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UCF vs Tulane spread analysis
With the teams as close as they are, the line for this game has fluctuated between 1.5 and 2 points in Tulane's favor.
The two have each faced conference foe Memphis, but that didn’t really offer any insights. UCF defeated the Tigers 35-28 on the road, while Tulane downed them 38-28 at home.
They also played East Carolina and while Tulane won 24-9, the Pirates handed UCF its only conference loss of the season, 34-13.
This game may very well go down to a game-winning field goal and if that’s the case, I like UCF’s kicker, freshman Colton Boomer. He took over for senior Daniel Obarski after the second game of the season and has been near perfect. He has made 10 of 11 field goals and the only one he missed was from 50+ yards.
Boomer is also 27 of 28 in PATs. He could be the difference-maker on Saturday.
UCF vs Tulane Over/Under analysis
The total on this game opened at 50.5 but has since moved to 54.5. The best odds for the Over is -110 at multiple sportsbooks and for the Under is -108 at FanDuel.
UCF is third in the conference, averaging 35.7 points a game, while Tulane is sixth at 32.9.
The problem with taking the Over that both teams do quite well from a score-prevention standpoint. Tulane is No. 1 in the conference, allowing an average of 16.9 points per game with UCF right behind them at 18.8 on average.
I think this game is going to focus more on preventing points rather than scoring them.
Tulane has allowed 24 or more points in four games this season. Their stat is skewed a bit because of the cupcakes they played before conference play started. They limited those three opponents to a total of 20 points.
UCF’s scoring defense is a little more accurate but they have allowed 34, 25, and 28 points in their last three games.
The trends seem to favor the Under. The Knights have hit the Under in four of their last five games against teams with a winning record.
Tulane is also 4-1 on the Under versus teams with a winning record and is 6-2 on the Under in their last eight home games.
Go with the Under on this one.
UCF vs Tulane betting trend to know
The underdog is 5-1 against the spread in the two teams' last six meetings. Find more NCAA betting trends for UCF vs. Tulane.
UCF vs Tulane game info
| Location: | Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, November 12, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
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UCF vs Tulane weather
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