There may not be a more pivotal matchup this weekend than the American showdown between Tulane and Memphis.
Not LSU–Alabama. Not Oregon–Iowa. Not even BYU–Texas Tech.
This game could shape the conference race, and my Tulane vs. Memphis predictions back the home favorite to hold serve, even beyond what oddsmakers project.
Find out more in my college football picks for Friday, November 7.
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Tulane vs Memphis prediction
Tulane vs Memphis best bet: Memphis -3.5 (-112)
Do not overreact to the missteps of 18- to 23-year-olds. We all made many mistakes at those ages.
And Memphis's debacle of a loss to UAB was precisely that kind of misstep.
In eight other games this season, the Tigers have gone 8-0 against the spread, exceeding bookmakers' expectations by 10.7 points per game, only two of those eight ATS wins coming within even a touchdown of the spread.
This spread has dropped all week, opening with the Tigers favored by six on Sunday, falling to -4.5 early in the week, and then to -3.5 midday Wednesday. That is understandable faith in Tulane, namely in head coach Jon Sumrall.
However, the Green Wave have not been consistent enough this season to justify this spread falling, certainly not of late. At this point, there is simply too much value in Memphis to turn away from.
Tulane vs Memphis same-game parlay
The stakes of this game may demand the Under all on their own.
Further logic comes from what should be Memphis's game plan, focusing on its rushing attack against a Tulane defense surprisingly suspect against the rush.
In eight FBS games this season, the Green Wave have lost ground against the rush in five, with two more leaving much to be desired.
Tulane vs Memphis SGP
- Memphis -3.5
- Under 54.5
- Greg Desrosiers Over 45.5 rushing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Jake & Bake
Memphis's passing defense has fallen off in the last few weeks, beginning with that comedy of a loss to UAB.
The Tigers have looked better in all regards against South Florida and Rice since then, but they still haven’t been strong in pass defense.
Expect Tulane quarterback Jake Retlaff to find chunks of success through the air.
Tulane vs Memphis SGP
- Memphis -3.5
- Under 54.5
- Greg Desrosiers Over 45.5 rushing yards
- Jake Retzlaff Over 219.5 passing yards
Tulane vs Memphis game predictions
Tulane vs Memphis moneyline prediction
Whoever stands tall on Friday night will be in prime position not only to make the American title game but also to reach the College Football Playoff with a win in the American title game.
With those stakes, the home team as a favorite is worth leaning into, particularly while Jon Sumrall’s name continues to be brought up around every new coaching opening.
Tulane vs Memphis spread prediction
Tulane has gone just 4-4 ATS this season, most notably faltering in each of its last two games.
Those are both small-scale trends, but when put in comparison to Memphis’s 8-1 ATS record this season, Tulane’s relative struggles stand out.
Tulane vs Memphis Over/Under prediction
Tulane’s biggest offensive weakness could hurt the Green Wave both against the spread and in terms of any Over bets. The Green Wave rank No. 87 in the country in points per quality drive, scoring just 3.24 points per possession in that split.
It has been more than a month since Tulane put together a game filled with finishing drives, which is the kind of offensive stagnance that can ruin a season.
Tulane vs Memphis odds
- Spread: Tulane +3.5 (-110) | Memphis -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Tulane +144 | Memphis -172
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 (-110) | Under 54.5 (-110)
Tulane vs Memphis trend to know
Four of Tulane’s last five games have gone Under their totals, a further reflection of the Green Wave’s struggles finishing drives. Find more college football betting trends for Tulane vs Memphis.
How to watch Tulane vs Memphis
| Location | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN |
| Date | Friday, November 7, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Tulane vs Memphis latest injuries
Tulane vs Memphis weather
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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