Toledo vs Ohio Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bobcats Offense Overwhelms in MAC Championship

Ohio has the momentum in its favor heading into a matchup the Bobcats profile well in. See why Toledo won't be able to overcome its losses, as our college football picks break down the MAC Championship.

Last Updated: Dec 3, 2022 7:44 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
James Bostic Ohio Bobcats
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The 7-5 Toldeo Rockets meet the 9-3 Ohio Bobcats for the Mid-American Championship Saturday afternoon at Ford Field.  

Toledo won the MAC West title with a 5-3 record but enters Saturday looking to shake off a two-game losing streak. Ohio was the MAC East champ with a 7-1 conference record and is riding a seven-game winning streak. 

Who will be crowned MAC Champion? Find out in our free best college football picks and predictions for this Week 14 Saturday Mid-American Conference Final between the Toledo Rockets and Ohio Bobcats for Saturday, December 3. 

Toledo vs Ohio best odds

Toledo vs Ohio picks and predictions

Ohio is one of the hottest teams in college. The Bobcats are riding a seven-game winning streak, have covered the spread in eight consecutive games, and are 9-3-0 ATS this season. 

Bobcats junior QB Kurtis Rourke has been ruled out with a knee injury, but sophomore CJ Harris scampered for three TDs and threw for another in his first start of the season. Harris is probably better with his feet, but he has steady hands in wideouts Sam Wiglusz and Jacoby Jones. The duo has combined for 1,508 receiving yards with 16 TDs and will face a test against the conference's top passing defense.

The Rockets’ rushing defense is tough, but freshman RB Sieh Bangura is the key to beating it. He’s sprinted for 884 yards with 11 TDs, adding 96 yards and a score in last week's victory over Bowling Green. Toledo allowed the second-most TDs and fifth-most rushing yards, and the duel threat of Bangura and Harris will be difficult to stop.

Ohio will want to keep an explosive Toledo offense on the sidelines. The Rockets have question marks at QB — starter Dequan Finn is banged up and played a handful of snaps last week, while freshman Tucker Gleason threw for 200 yards and a TD while scampering for another. The Bobcats are the worst passing defense in the conference and whoever starts at QB has several capable receivers.

Toledo brings the third-best rushing offense to the table — Jacquez Stuart leads the way with 566 yards and three TDs but has just 105 yards over the past four games. Finn is a big part of the rushing attack — Gleason is mobile but less effective than Finn. The Bobcats have the second-best rushing defense, and the Rockets will have to work for their yards.

Harris is coming off a huge game in his first start and has the confidence and the weapons to get the job done. What the Bobcats don’t want is for their defense to have to win this game because that probably won’t happen. Expect Ohio to attack the Rockets on the ground and eat as much clock as possible. 

Ohio is 42nd in the nation in third-down conversions. Harris and Bangura are capable of denting a league-average Rockets rushing defense, and the Bobcats' signal-caller is accurate enough to make throws when it matters. The Rockets offense has stalled without Finn, and the Ohio defense is good enough to get enough stops for the offense to cover the spread. 

My best bet: Ohio +2 (-110 at BetRivers)

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Toledo vs Ohio spread analysis

The Bobcats covering the spread is my best bet, but I also lean toward Ohio winning this game.

The Rockets have the second-best offense in the MAC, but they aren’t the same team without Finn. Toledo has scored 49 points over its past two games, which is well below its 33-point season average. Finn looked awful in a limited capacity last week — his status is up in the air, and it's hard to believe he’ll be healthy enough to lead Toledo to a victory.

Turnovers could play a huge role in this contest. Toledo is 100th in FBS with a -9 turnover differential, while Ohio is fourth in the nation at +13. 

The Rockets defense is the best in the conference, but they’ve allowed 135 points over their past five games. That’s four points per game over their season average, and concerning against an Ohio offense that hasn’t missed a beat without its star QB.

Toledo is 4-8 ATS and 0-5 ATS over its previous five games, while Ohio is 9-3 ATS and 7-0 ATS over its last seven. 

Toledo vs Ohio Over/Under analysis

The total for Saturday's MAC Championship game is 55 points, and I’m leaning toward the Over.

If Ohio is going to win this game, and I believe it will, it won’t be with its defense. Toledo might be a different team without Finn, but they have several weapons that can damage Ohio. The Bobcats' defense has been much better lately, but we can’t expect Toledo not to score the football.

Ohio posted 38 points last week and looked more than capable with Harris under center, now facing a capable Toledo defense that has regressed over its last five. The Bobcats can score on Toledo, and I believe they’ll produce the offense needed to win here.

The Over is 6-6 through the Rockets' 12 games and 2-3 over their last five. Ohio games are 7-7 to the Over and 2-2-1 over their previous five. 

Toledo vs Ohio betting trend to know

The Bobcats are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Toledo vs. Ohio.

Toledo vs Ohio game info

Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Date: Saturday, December 3, 2022
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

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