The South Florida Bulls shocked the world with a Week 1 upset, and now they’re fired up to keep the streak alive as they storm the Swamp to take on the No. 13 Florida Gators.
Florida wasted no time sending a message, dominating Long Island University to open the season. But the Bulls are the last real test before the Gators dive headfirst into a gauntlet of ranked heavyweights — No. 3 LSU, No. 5 Miami, and No. 7 Texas — in the coming weeks.
The Gators are massive 17.5-point favorites at home, but don’t count out the Bulls ready to bring the heat and shake things up.
It’s time to look at South Florida vs. Florida predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 6.
South Florida vs Florida prediction
South Florida vs Florida best bet: Over 55.5 points (-110)
In their two matchups in the 2020s, they’ve reached the 55.5 scoring line with ease.
South Florida was a Top 5 scoring team in the American Conference last year, pouring in 32.2 points per game.
They were Top-6 in the conference in both rushing and passing, and showed that balance over Boise, with Byrum Brown throwing for 210 yards and two scores while the team churned out 4.2 yards a carry and three majors.
On top of DJ Lagway’s work in the air, Jadan Baugh shredded on the ground with 104 yards on nine totes and a score.
Offense should go a long way in this one.
South Florida vs Florida same-game parlay
Lagway had just two games last season where he threw for more than 266 yards, both to inferior competition in Samford and Tulane in the Gasparilla Bowl.
Like Florida’s opener, there’s potential that he’s pacing the sidelines with Tramell Jones Jr. cleaning things up. With Baugh in the backfield, this is a bet on Lagway not needing to go supernova against the Bulls.
We’ll wrap with Brown, who rushed for 43 yards in the opener, and the pivot’s rush line is 42.5. Over his last six starts, Brown has topped this rush line four times.
South Florida vs Florida same-game parlay
- Over 55.5
- DJ Lagway Under 265.5 Passing Yards
- Byrum Brown Over 42.5 Rushing Yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Running Up the Yards
Jadan Baugh has rushed for better than 74 yards in four of his last eight starts, but he should be able to find his way against a South Florida defense that allowed 157.8 yards per game on the ground last year.
Keshaun Singleton had 93 yards receiving in the opener, giving him three games with at least 90+ yards over his last four contests.
South Florida vs Florida same-game parlay
- Over 55.5
- DJ Lagway Under 265.5 Passing Yards
- Byrum Brown Over 42.5 Rushing Yards
- Jadan Baugh Over 74.5 Rushing Yards
- Keshaun Singleton Over 43.5 Receiving Yards
South Florida vs Florida game predictions
South Florida vs Florida moneyline prediction
Even with the Bulls’ upset over Boise State, this one is not an overthinker. Florida is a level up and the SEC doesn’t play around with its food.
The Gators are 3-0 all-time against South Florida and will make it 4-0 with ease on Saturday. I’d advise against wagering though, as the -1050 odds offer little value.
South Florida vs Florida spread prediction
Florida didn’t break a sweat, so much so that starting pivot DJ Lagway was done by halftime, throwing for three majors with the Gators up 38-0.
Meanwhile, USF gave up an opening score before dropping 34 unanswered points in a 34-7 romp over the Broncos.
I think the level up to ranked SEC comp will be a factor. USF was mauled in its two matchups vs ranked teams last year: 42-16 to #4 Alabama and 50-15 to #8 Miami. Expect more of the same Saturday.
South Florida vs Florida Over/Under prediction
In their two matchups in the 2020s, they’ve the 55.5 scoring line with ease.
South Florida was a Top 5 scoring team in the American Conference last year, pouring in 32.2 points per game.
They were Top-6 in the conference in both rushing and passing, and showed that balance over Boise, with Byrum Brown throwing for 210 yards and two scores while the team churned out 4.2 yards a carry and three majors.
On top of Lagway’s work in the air, Jadan Baugh shredded on the ground with 104 yards on nine totes and a score.
Offense should go a long way in this one.
South Florida vs Florida odds
- Spread: South Florida +17.5 (-104) | Florida -17.5 (-118)
- Moneyline: South Florida +660 | Florida -1050
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (-115) | Under 55.5 (-105)
South Florida vs Florida trend to know
The Over is 2-0-1 in three all-time meetings between these schools. Find more college football betting trends for South Florida vs Florida.
How to watch South Florida vs Florida
| Location | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL |
| Date | Saturday, September 6, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | SEC Network |
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