The Iowa Hawkeyes are currently ranked second in the country after a massive come-from-behind win against Penn State at home last week. Being ranked No. 2 via the AP Poll doesn’t necessarily mean Iowa would be second in the College Football Playoff, however, as of now, the Hawkeyes would be playing in the CFP.
Iowa is playing terrific football on the defensive end, but can that kind of play continue against a Purdue Boilermakers squad that has plenty of lethal playmakers on offense? Check out our picks and predictions for Purdue vs Iowa on Saturday, October 16.
Purdue vs Iowa odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Iowa opened as a 14.5-point favorite and has been bet down to -11.5. Since opening, the total has shifted from 43.5 to 43. However, make sure to shop around if you’re looking to bet the total, as it varies between books.
Purdue vs Iowa picks
Picks made on 10/14/2021 at 10:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Purdue vs Iowa game info
• Location: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
• Date: Saturday, October 16, 2021
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Purdue vs Iowa betting preview
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Purdue: Payne Durham TE (Probable)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Boilermakers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Purdue vs. Iowa.
Purdue vs Iowa predictions
Iowa -11.5 (-110)
Iowa was a 14.5-point favorite when this line officially opened. However, with an extra week of preparation for Purdue, sharps were all over the Boilermakers for this game.
Now that the line has shifted to 11.5, taking Iowa at home makes more sense. The Hawkeyes offense isn’t going to blow anyone away, but they’ve been getting the job done on the ground, rushing for 123.3 yards per game. The offense is only averaging 317.5 yards per game, but they’ve scored 31.5 points.
This is due to Iowa’s defense earning solid field position for the Hawkeyes’ many possessions per game. The offense doesn’t have to do anything crazy to win ball games, but it has a running game that can absolutely exploit Purdue.
Purdue has allowed under 300 yards per game on the defensive end. The pass rush has been great, but the coverage and rushing defense can be a lot better.
Therefore, I’m expecting Iowa to dominate up front in the run game. The Hawkeyes arguably have the best offensive line in the Big Ten, and potentially all of college football.
Meanwhile, Purdue’s offense has been very solid, averaging 414.8 yards per game. The only thing holding this offense back has been the O-line. The run block and pass protection have been suspect and Purdue has only averaged 89.4 yards per game on the ground this season.
There’s no question Purdue has talent at running back and wide receiver, including David Bell, who has three touchdowns on 27 receptions for 439 yards. However, there’s reason to believe Iowa’s pass rush can be effective and get to the quarterback. Therefore, I’ll roll with Iowa to hold onto their CFP hopes for another week with a big two-touchdown win.
Over 43 (-110)
Iowa’s defense can sometimes help the Over. The D is so good that it’s able to give the Hawkeyes really great field position off three-and-outs and turnovers.
Iowa will get theirs and have scored 31.5 points per game this season. On the other hand, Purdue has so many playmakers on the offensive end, and if it weren’t for rainy conditions on October 2, Purdue would probably be 4-1 on the year.
This offense is capable, even with an O-line that has been inconsistent this year. I like Iowa to score around 35 points in this one and believe Purdue is capable of putting up at least 21. Therefore, I’ll roll with the Over between these two teams in Iowa City.
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