College football kicks off Week 7 with plenty of intriguing matchups on the board.
I’m eyeing Tommy Castellanos, Ryan Williams, and Malachie Fields with my NCAAF player props and college football picks for Saturday, October 9.
Best college football player props for Week 7 early games
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Tommy Castellanos |
Under 65.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Ryan Williams |
Over 67.5 receiving yards | -114 |
 Malachi Fields |
Over 48.5 receiving yards | -114 |
Prop bet #1: Tommy Castellanos Under 65.5 rushing yards
The Pittsburgh Panthers have one calling card in 2025 — a fearsome defensive front that shuts down opposing rushing attacks. Pitt has allowed just 1.7 yards per rush, the lowest number in the country by over half a yard.
The advanced metrics indicate it isn’t a fluke as they rank Top 10 in rushing success rate, EPA per rush, rush defense grade (per PFF), and tackling.
It all starts with the push they generate up front (third in line yards, fifth in stuff rate) and is complemented by perhaps the best linebacking duo in the nation, Kyle Louis and Rasheem Biles.
It’ll be strength on strength in Week 7 as the No. 25 Florida State Seminoles have a vaunted rushing attack averaging nearly 300 yards per game on the ground.
The books have placed quarterback Tommy Castellanos’ rushing yardage prop at 65.5, which is 11 yards higher than his season-long average.
The rushing prop seems to give credit to the offensive side of the handicap but less so to the defensive side.
- Matchup: Pittsburgh vs. Florida State
- Date/Time: Saturday, October 11 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Doak Campbell Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Prop bet #2: Ryan Williams Over 67.5 receiving yards
Ryan Williams is one of the best wide receivers in the country, and he’s poised for a monster season in 2025. He’s already racked up 336 receiving yards in four contests (84 ypg), so it caught my eye when the books put his Week 7 receiving yardage line at 67.5.
Williams is averaging 3.08 yards per route run, and the talent is evident, so we know that level of efficiency isn’t a fluke. He’s locked into a big-time role for a No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide offense that hasn’t unlocked the running game (103rd in EPA per rush), so the volume should be consistent as he’s needed to make the offense go.
It’s a difficult matchup on paper against a tough No. 14 Missouri Tigers defense allowing 14.6 ppg. Still, this will be the most difficult test the Tigers have faced all season.
They’ve still managed to give up big plays through the air despite facing underwhelming competition, ranking 118th in passing explosiveness allowed.
Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb aligns Williams all over the field to get him different looks and find advantageous matchups. Getting him the rock is a priority, and that should be reflected in a massive ranked-on-ranked showdown.
- Matchup: Alabama vs. Missouri
- Date/Time: Saturday, October 11 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Memorial Stadium
- TV: ABC
Prop bet #3: Malachi Fields Over 48.5 receiving yards
Wide receiver Malachi Fields has been a valuable member of the offense for the No. 16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, posting at least 44 yards in every game. He’s playing a full-time role and is productive with his chances, averaging 2.59 yards per route run.
The Virginia transfer should continue to put forth impressive statistics for an offense that has been among the best in the country, averaging 40.8 ppg and ranking 12th in EPA per play.
They get a favorable matchup in Week 7 against the NC State Wolfpack, who surrender 25 ppg and rank 88th in EPA per play on defense.
They’re missing former defensive coordinator Tony Gibson, and it shows. The Wolfpack surrendered 35 points to Virginia and 45 to Duke in two of their biggest tests of the year. The secondary is unreliable, ranking 68th in EPA per pass while allowing 250+ passing yards in four of six outings.
Fields is best used as a deep target, as reflected in his 15.7 aDOT. He should exploit an NC State secondary that allows plenty of big plays through the air, ranking 109th in passing explosiveness allowed.
- Matchup: Virginia Tech vs. Notre Dame
- Date/Time: Saturday, October 11 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Notre Dame Stadium
- TV: Peacock
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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