The first week of MACtion is in the books and it didn’t disappoint. There was plenty of snow, ridiculous sideline stunts, and exciting football, which should set the second week of Midwest midweek football up perfectly for some intriguing college football odds.
While Miami (OH) sits atop the MAC East, both Ohio and Buffalo are still alive in the race to the MAC Championship Game in Detroit. The winner of tonight's game at UB Stadium will be just a game back of the RedHawks and it’s going to come down to defense in what’s surely going to be a slugfest in the rain.
Find out where my best bets lie in my free college football picks for Ohio vs. Buffalo on Tuesday, November 6.
Ohio vs Buffalo best odds
Ohio vs Buffalo picks and predictions
The total for this game is just 44, but with the way both the Ohio Bobcats and Buffalo Bulls defenses have played this year, and with both offenses being turnover-prone, the Under jumps out as the way to go.
With showers expected Tuesday afternoon and continuing into the evening in Amherst, it’ll be a cold and wet game for two passing attacks that have thrown a combined 20 interceptions this season. Both rank in the Top 20 in the Group of Five in interceptions thrown.
Even with 2022 MAC Player of the Year Kurtis Rourke at quarterback, the Bobcats haven’t been nearly as consistent on offense this season. With Rourke battling injuries all year, Ohio is just 98th in EPA per play and this running game has been among the least efficient in the country.
Ohio is 129th in EPA per rush and averages 132.9 rushing yards per game, the 19th-worst mark in the Group of Five. With an inefficient run game and Rourke not looking like himself — he’s thrown more interceptions (three) in his last three games than touchdowns (two) — Ohio is scoring just 21.8 points per game, 105th in the country.
They’re also heading into Buffalo to take on one of the best defenses in the MAC. The Bulls are 21st in the country in EPA per play on defense and 12th in EPA per pass. Their secondary is built to force Rourke into mistakes.
Led by safeties Devin Grant, whose five interceptions rank second in the country, and Marcus Fuqua, a top NFL Draft prospect in the MAC, the Bulls are tied for the 14th-most interceptions in college football (11). They’ve also held opponents to just 204.2 passing yards per game, the 17th least in the Group of Five.
Unlike their defense, the Bulls offense has been a mess this season, which is a big reason why Maurice Linguist’s team is just 3-6 despite creating so many turnovers.
Buffalo is 119th in EPA per play, 121st in EPA per pass, and 81st in EPA per rush. They’re scoring only 24.4 points per game, 86th in the country, and quarterback Cole Snyder has thrown five interceptions in his last three games.
Behind Snyder, offensive coordinator DJ Mangas’ unit is throwing for only 191.2 yards per game and running for 132.8 per game. Their 324 total yards per game is the 23rd fewest in the nation.
It’s going to be a long night for Snyder & Co. with Bobcat defensive coordinator Spence Nowinsky’s group quietly being among the best in the country. Ohio ranks 17th in EPA per play on defense, 18th in EPA per pass, and 28th in EPA per rush.
Their linebacker duo of Bryce Houston and Keye Thompson is one of the best in the country and with those two and likely All-MAC defensive tackle Rayyan Buell, they create all kinds of negative plays. Those three have a combined 27 TFLs and are a big reason Ohio has held teams to only 93.2 rushing yards per game, the 12th-best mark in the country.
The secondary has been just as good as the front seven, if not better, holding teams to only 171.3 passing yards per game. As a whole, they’re only allowing 15.7 points per game and are keeping teams to just 264.6 total yards per game, fourth best in the sport.
Between Buffalo’s turnover-forcing secondary, the Bobcats' dominant defensive play, these two struggling offenses, and the weather conditions, the Under is appetizing on a Tuesday night in Amherst.
My best bet: Under 44 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Ohio vs Buffalo same-game parlay
Under 44.5 (-125)
Ohio -7.5 (+100)
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With the Bobcats having the better defense and the more proven offense, they’re in a more trustworthy position to dominate this game on the road. Rourke hasn’t been himself this season, but with his arm talent and mobility, he’ll be able to make enough plays for Ohio to pull away in this MACtion contest.
The Bobcats have a strong receiver room led by Ohio State transfer Sam Wiglusz, who has 1,016 receiving yards and 11 TDs in 14 MAC games, and a talented running back in Sieh Bangura. Between those two and Rourke, they’ll have the opportunity to score enough points to win by more than a touchdown.
The playmakers are there in the Ohio offense to build a solid lead in the second half, even if they struggle to have a massive offensive output against a talented Buffalo secondary.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Ohio vs Buffalo spread and Over/Under analysis
Most books opened with Ohio as 6- to 7-point road favorites over Buffalo and have remained there.
Ohio is 4-5 against the spread this season and 0-3 ATS in their last three outings. In the MAC, they’ve gone 2-3 ATS. Buffalo has been slightly better ATS at 5-4. They’ve been a solid bet to cover as an underdog going 4-2 ATS. In the MAC, they’re 3-2 ATS.
The total for this one opened at between 44 and 44.5 at most books and hasn’t shifted despite the call for rain.
The Bobcats aren’t a great bet if you’re hoping to take the Over. They’ve gone just 2-6-1 O/U this season and have gone 1-6-1 O/U anytime the total has been above 40.
As for the Bulls, their 4-5 record betting the Over is slightly misleading. They hit the Over in their first four games of the year and haven’t hit it since. They’re 0-5 betting the Over in MAC games this season.
Ohio vs Buffalo betting trend to know
Ohio has hit the cashed the Under in 10 of its last 14 games (+5.60 units / 36% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Ohio vs Buffalo.
Ohio vs Buffalo game info
| Location: | UB Stadium, Buffalo, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, November 7, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
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