Late November football greets us with rivalry games aplenty, and the biggest of them all takes place when the Ohio State Buckeyes face the Michigan Wolverines.
You know the story of this game and the Buckeyes' recent inability to get the proverbial blue monkey off their backs. It feels a little different this year, though.
Take a look at my early Ohio State vs Michigan predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 29, 2025.
Ohio State vs Michigan predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Ohio State vs Michigan spread pick: Ohio State -9.5
I’m grabbing the Ohio State Buckeyes at -9.5. It’s more than a lean, too, as it was actually one of the first bets I made on Sunday night when it was still -10.5.
I fully expect Buckeyes QB Julian Sayin to be the best player on the field. He’s improved throughout the year and has been highly efficient, posting 0.44 EPA per dropback and a 77% completion rate.
He should be in a strong spot to attack the Michigan Wolverines' secondary, a good but not elite unit whose success rate allowed sits in the 60s nationally. That’s not good enough to bottle up a loaded group of pass catchers like Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate, Max Klare, and Brandon Inniss.
I’ve said all that without even mentioning the Ohio State backfield. In some ways, that says more than enough about the offensive advantage OSU has.
On the other side, it feels like Michigan will need a near-perfect game from QB Bryce Underwood just to hang around.
Even as someone higher on him than consensus, I can’t justify projecting that kind of performance against an Ohio State front that ranks Top-3 in rush EPA allowed and consistently generates havoc, likely forcing Underwood to do almost everything with his arm.
Early Ohio State vs Michigan total pick: Under 44.5
It’s not a strong belief, but if I had to pick, I’d roll with the Under here. Directionally, it falls in line with my best bet and projected game script.
Michigan wants to run the ball. It’s who the Wolverines are, and it’s ingrained in their program's DNA. It’s also one of the reasons that they’ve pulled off upsets against OSU in the past.
The problem is that when they run the ball in this game, they’ll probably be running it directly into the best front four in the country. Not only will that bleed the clock, but it will also stall drives. That’s the perfect script for the Under.
On the flip side, Michigan’s defense is still Top-30 in EPA/play allowed and success rate, and it holds up particularly well against the run.
Ohio State’s offense is the best unit on the field, but Michigan’s combination of good havoc, strong red-zone personnel, and respectable starting field position should at least force a few long-field, multi-play marches.
Ohio State vs Michigan odds
- Ohio State vs. Michigan spread: Michigan +9.5
- Ohio State vs. Michigan moneyline: Ohio State -385, Michigan +300
- Ohio State vs. Michigan Over/Under: 44.5
How to watch Ohio State vs Michigan
- Ohio State vs. Michigan matchup
- Date: Saturday, November 29, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
- City: Ann Arbor, MI
- Venue: Michigan Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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