Nebraska vs Michigan Odds, Picks and Predictions: Huskers Can't Slow Wolverines on Ground

Blake Corum and Michigan are going to have a field day this weekend against floundering Nebraska and its conference-worst run defense. See how our college football picks like to fade the Huskers in Week 11.

Phil Naessens - Betting Analyst at
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
Nov 12, 2022 • 08:07 ET • 4 min read
Blake Corum Michigan Wolverines
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Week 11 of the NCAAF season continues with Saturday Big Ten action when the Nebraska Cornhuskers meet the No. 3-ranked Michigan Wolverines.

Nebraska hopes to end a three-game losing streak while Michigan is undefeated and trounced Rutgers 52-17 for its ninth consecutive victory. 

Who will win this Big Ten clash? Find out in our free best college football picks and predictions for this Week 11 Saturday showdown between the Nebraska Cornhuskers and Michigan Wolverines on Saturday, November 12. 

Nebraska vs Michigan best odds

Nebraska vs Michigan picks and predictions

Michigan is first in the nation in defensive yards allowed (242), rushing yards (72), third in scoring defense, and seventh in passing yards allowed. Those are stout numbers, and the Cornhuskers offense will have difficulties putting points on the board Saturday.

The Cornhuskers' offense commits too many turnovers and allows nearly three sacks per game. Junior QB Casey Thompson missed last week and is questionable for this tilt. He’s thrown for 2023 yards, 12 TD passes, 10 interceptions, and an additional five rushing TDs.

Red-shirt freshman Chubba Purdy is expected to start if Thompson doesn’t suit up, and he’s thrown for 91 yards and three interceptions while rushing for an additional two TDs. He’s completed just 44% of his passes and was 6 of 16 for 44 yards last week against Minnesota. 

A pair of juniors lead Nebraska’s attack — WR Trey Palmer has 53 receptions for 819 yards with five TD receptions, and RB Anthony Grant has scampered for 858 yards and six TDs for the eighth-best Big Ten scoring offense. 

The Wolverines' offense is the real deal facing the worst defense in the conference. 

Junior RB Blake Corum is fifth in the country in rushing yards, and Donovan Edwards completes a solid one-two punch the Cornhuskers defense won’t stop. Nebraska has allowed a conference-worst 18 rushing TDs this season, and the Michigan backfield will eat.

Michigan has a solid passing attack led by sophomore QB J.J. McCarthy. He’s thrown for 1615 yards with a dozen scoring strikes against two interceptions. Senior wideout Ronnie Bell is his main target, and WR Cornelious Johnson leads the receiver room with four TD receptions.

Michigan is 5-3-1 ATS this season, and the defense will be after Purdy from jump street. Nebraska struggles with pass protection, and facing the best rushing defense with a conference-best 29 sacks will make life difficult for the red-shirt frosh in his first away game. Penalties and turnovers have hindered Nebraska's offense this season, and Michigan could realistically pitch a shutout Saturday.

The Michigan backfield has a great matchup against the conference's worst rushing defense. The Wolverines have one of the top offensive lines in the country, a Heisman hopeful in Corum, and Michigan will pound the ball down the Cornhuskers' throat, dominate the clock, mix in a few big passing plays, and cover the spread.  

My best bet: Michigan -30.5 (-110 at Bwin)

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Nebraska vs Michigan spread analysis

We’ve already discussed why I laid the points and went with the Wolverines, but here are some additional notes.

Michigan has begun games slowly but has dominated in the second half, outscoring its opponents 100-3 this season. The Wolverines are 10th in the country in third-down conversions meeting a Nebraska defense allowing a 95th-best 41.9%. Nebraska itself is 52nd in third-down conversion rate against a Michigan defense allowing a 13th-best 29.9%.

The turnover margin for these teams speaks volumes about where each school is trending. Michigan is +3, and Nebraska is -7. 

The Cornhuskers are 3-6 ATS and 1-1 as the away team. Michigan is 5-3-1 ATS overall, including 3-2-1 ATS in the Big House. 

Nebraska vs Michigan Over/Under analysis

The total is 48.5, and I would lean Under for this matchup.

Purdy may be a red-shirt freshman, but he did start one game as a true freshman for Florida State. He threw a pair of scoring strikes against NC State in 2020 and is mobile, rushing for 24 yards and a TD last week against Minnesota.

Corum currently has Heisman Trophy odds of +600 and has rushed for 123 yards or more with at least one TD in each of the Wolverines' six conference games. He’s also recorded multiple TD games in three of his six conference matchups.

McCarthy is an underrated passer. The Michigan signal-caller is completing 70% of his passes and has thrown two TD passes or more in four of his nine games. Nebraska has the third-worst passing defense in the conference with 14 TD receptions allowed in Big Ten play.

Michigan hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in their last five. Still, Nebraska has surrendered 13 points or more in all six conference games. 

Nebraska vs Michigan betting trend to know

The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Find more NCAA betting trends for Nebraska vs. Michigan.

Nebraska vs Michigan game info

Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Date: Saturday, November 12, 2022
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET

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Nebraska vs Michigan weather

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