The Navy Midshipmen still have aspirations of an AAC title and an outside shot at a College Football Playoff berth.
None of that happens without an upset road win over the Memphis Tigers on Thanksgiving. The Tigers have seen their own chances at a conference title slip away this season, but are still slight home favorites for this matchup.
That means this game has a thrilling back-and-forth shootout written all over it, and my Navy vs. Memphis predictions and college football picks are all over the total in this AAC clash.
Navy vs Memphis prediction
Navy vs Memphis best bet: Over 59.5 (-105)
The Navy Midshipmen were as high as +1800 to make the College Football Playoff before the season began, and while they’re still a long shot to do so, the idea no longer seems that far-fetched.
Navy enters this Thanksgiving Day matchup against the Memphis Tigers with an 8-2 record, and must steal a win as 4.5-point road dogs if they want to keep their AAC title and CFP hopes alive.
The Midshipmen have gotten to this point thanks to their explosive offense. Now, most people don’t associate Navy with that, instead thinking of them as a grind-it-out triple-option team.
Still, the combination of quarterback Blake Horvath and offensive coordinator Drew Cronic, who employs what he would call a modern spread option, has worked wonders. Horvath has rushed for 986 yards with 13 touchdowns, but has also thrown for 1,290 and eight more. As a result, Navy ranks seventh in the country in success rate and 19th in EPA per play.
And you can bet Horvath will try to lean more on his arm on Thursday, going against a suspect Memphis pass defense. The Tigers rank 83rd in EPA per dropback and 106th in success rate on dropbacks.
Now, the thing that's held the Midshipmen back this season, and could get them in trouble in this matchup, is their defense. Navy ranks 98th in opponent EPA per play and 90th in success rate.
Memphis had a big letdown earlier in the season to UAB and come into this game having lost two in a row, albeit to a pair of teams (Tulane, ECU) also still in the AAC title hunt.
Still, the Tigers have a dynamic dual-threat QB of their own in Brendon Lewis. The super senior has thrown for 2,395 yards with 13 touchdowns and another 596 yards and nine scores on the ground, leading a solid Memphis offense that ranks 36th in both EPA per play and success rate.
These teams have both been good Over bets. Navy is 8-2 O/U for the season, while Memphis is 6-2 in its last eight. The spirit of giving will be present on Thanksgiving, with both teams giving up enough points to send this one Over the total.
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Navy vs Memphis same-game parlay
Make no mistake, Navy is still a run-first team, but the Midshipmen have not been afraid to take to the air if the matchup dictates it, and I think we've found one of those situations on Thursday.
Horvath has thrown for 140+ yards in five games this season, something that was probably unthinkable for a Navy offense. And with Memphis’ inability to slow down opposing passing games, I’m expecting him to let it fly once again.
Motivation will also be something to focus on in this matchup. After suffering its second loss in as many games and third of the season, there's little for Memphis to play for. Navy can still get into the AAC Championship Game with a win and a North Texas or Tulane loss this week.
I’ll take a shot on the Midshipmen to win this one outright.
Navy vs Memphis SGP
- Over 59.5
- Blake Horvath Over 125.5 passing yards
- Navy moneyline
Our deep-ball SGP: A Thanksgiving touchdown feast
I'm betting we have a cornucopia of touchdowns in this matchup. Heindreich and Tezca are Navy's best two options, with Horvath being more juiced than a Thanksgiving turkey, while Lewis should find the end zone with his arm and legs.
Navy vs Memphis SGP
- Eli Heidenreich anytime touchdown
- Brendon Lewis anytime touchdown
- Cortez Braham anytime touchdown
- Alex Tecza anytime touchdown
Navy vs Memphis odds
- Spread: Navy +4.5 | Memphis -4.5
- Moneyline: Navy +162 | Memphis -194
- Over/Under: Over 59.5 | Under 59.5
Navy vs Memphis trend to know
Navy has cashed Over in nine of their last 13 games for +4.60 units and a 32% ROI, while Memphis has gone Over its team total in their last five games at home for +5.00 units and a 89% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Navy vs Memphis.
How to watch Navy vs Memphis
| Location | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN |
| Date | Thursday, November 27, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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