The Egg Bowl between Ole Miss and Mississippi State may end up feeling like the undercard to Friday’s real headline: Lane Kiffin’s impending decision about his future.
Where will he land — LSU, Florida, or back in Oxford? And why leave when the Rebels look like a legitimate national title threat? The question now is whether Kiffin’s looming choice will distract from his preparation for this storied rivalry.
My Mississippi vs. Mississippi State predictions are banking on Kiffin keeping his focus on what’s in front of him with college football picks that back the Rebels and the run game on Friday, November 28.
Mississippi vs Mississippi State prediction
Mississippi vs Mississippi State best bet: Mississippi -7.5 (-102)
The intrigue surrounding this year’s Egg Bowl is second-to-none, and very little of that has to do with the actual game on the field in Starkville.
The Mississippi Rebels visit their in-state rivals, the Mississippi State Bulldogs, with a 10-1 record and are a fourth-quarter collapse against Georgia away from being undefeated. They have an elite offense, a solid defense, and are a virtual lock to make the CFP.
But that may not matter at all if Lane Kiffin has already decided to move on to another job. LSU and Florida are hot and heavy for the Rebels’ coach, but my gut says Kiffin has decided to stay put and keep rolling with a potential perennial contender he has built in Oxford.
That means his focus this week will be on the Bulldogs. Mississippi State is underrated this season, but its defense is its Achilles heel, particularly when it comes to stopping the run.
The Bulldogs are ranked 87th in the country in defensive success rate, 111th in success rate, and 67th in EPA vs. the rush.
That doesn’t bode well going against Mississippi’s QB-RB combo of Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy.
Chambliss has thrown for 2,657 yards with 14 touchdowns and just three picks while adding another 444 yards and six scores on the ground. Lacy, meanwhile, has rumbled for 1,136 yards and 19 TDs.
As a result, the Rebels rank 10th in EPA per play and 13th in offensive success rate. They will lean on the run game and wear out the Bulldogs as the game wears on, winning the Egg Bowl and covering the spread before Kiffin announces he’s staying in Oxford.
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Mississippi vs Mississippi State same-game parlay
These will be the running Rebels on Friday afternoon, taking advantage of that porous Bulldogs rush defense. So, I like Lacy to go Over his rushing yard props in this one.
Now, it’s a lofty 120.5, but don’t let that big number scare you off; Lacy still makes this a Black Friday deal. The Rebels runner has topped that number four times this season and three times in the last six games. That includes a workhorse performance last time out against Florida, carrying the ball 31 times for 224 yards.
But he’s not the only back I like to put up some numbers here. Bulldogs RB Fluff Bothwell is starting to return to form after a tough midseason ankle injury. He had 465 yards at 5.5 yards per carry before the injury and now faces a Mississippi defense that ranks 81st in success rate vs. the rush.
Mississippi vs Mississippi State SGP
- Mississippi -7.5
- Kewan Lacy Over 120.5 rushing yards
- Fluff Bothwell Over 64.5 rushing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Running Rebels
Let's add Chambliss to this rushing barrage. He's topped this number in five of the nine games since taking over as Mississippi's starting QB.
Mississippi vs Mississippi State SGP
- Mississippi -7.5
- Kewan Lacy Over 120.5 rushing yards
- Fluff Bothwell Over 64.5 rushing yards
- Trinidad Chambliss Over 49.5 rushing yards
Mississippi vs Mississippi State game predictions
Mississippi vs Mississippi State moneyline prediction
The Kiffin drama is a bit overblown and is undermining a talented Rebels team with national championship aspirations. The Bulldogs are better than most realize, but Mississippi is a bad matchup for them. The Rebels win this year's Egg Bowl.
Mississippi vs Mississippi State spread prediction
The Rebels' run game will be the difference in this rivalry game. They will grind out possessions and overmatch the Bulldogs' suspect run defense to pull away late, winning by double digits.
Mississippi vs Mississippi State Over/Under prediction
I lean Under here. This is a rivalry game where I expect both teams to be committed to running the football, keeping the clock moving.
Mississippi vs Mississippi State odds
- Spread: Mississippi -7.5 (-102) | Mississippi State +7.5 (+120)
- Moneyline: Mississippi -290 | Mississippi State +235
- Over/Under: Over 62.5 (-110) | Under 62.5 (-110)
Mississippi vs Mississippi State trend to know
The Under is 8-0 in the last eight Egg Bowls. Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi vs Mississippi State.
How to watch Mississippi vs Mississippi State
| Location | Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS |
| Date | Friday, November 28, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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