The Sugar Bowl features the third rematch of this College Football Playoff and the second straight rematch for the Mississippi Rebels.
Examining the mid-October shootout yields some insights for this College Football Playoff quarterfinal, but mostly for the Mississippi vs. Georgia player props recognize the strengths each team needs to lean into on Thursday, January 1.
Behold, my Mississippi vs. Georgia predictions and college football picks for the Sugar Bowl.
Mississippi vs Georgia props for the Sugar Bowl
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Trinidad Chambliss |
Anytime touchdown | +170 |
| Trinidad Chambliss |
Over 28.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Nate Frazier |
Under 60.5 rushing yards | -114 |
Trinidad Chambliss Touchdown
Leaning on a quarterback in the run game in key moments is more common in elimination games. For the Mississippi Rebels and quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, that has already been a common tactic, with the Ferris State transfer scoring eight times this season, including twice in the first round against Tulane.
In the Rebels’ six one-score games, Chambliss found the end zone in three of them, including twice at these Georgia Bulldogs.
He will have several opportunities in the Sugar Bowl, since Mississippi ranks No. 1 in the country in quality drive rate, turning nearly 60% of possessions into scoring opportunities.
And Georgia ranks No. 63 in limiting points on quality drives. Chambliss should have his scoring chances, and against this particular defense, those chances often yield touchdowns.
Trinidad Chambliss Over 28.5 Rushing Yards
Georgia's defense doesn't excel at turning pressures into sacks, ranking 111th in sack damage this season, per CFB-graphs.com. And Chambliss ranks No. 23 in expected points added (EPA) via scrambles.
Furthermore, Mississippi calls designed runs for Chambliss at the 37th-highest rate among quarterbacks, happy to lean on him both by design and in broken plays.
It shouldn't be a surprise that he cleared this prop at Georgia in mid-October, turning nine total carries into 42 yards, part of clearing this number in seven of the Rebels’ last 10 games against FBS competition.
Nate Frazier Under 60.5 Rushing Yards
Georgia’s rushing offense suffered greatly in the SEC title game without starting center Drew Bobo. The Bulldogs lost 0.07 expected points per rush attempt and stayed ahead of the chains on only 35% of their rush attempts.
On the season, that was Georgia’s fourth-worst rushing performance, and one that stood out given both the stakes and the wanted rushing emphasis seen in 40 attempts.
Frazier struggled to only 52 yards on 13 carries, his lowest yards per rush since November 1, and one of only three games this season in which he did not average at least 4.2 per attempt.
Expect the Bulldogs to lean on Gunner Stockton’s arm rather than the run game, largely out of worries about their offensive line in run blocking.
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